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Forex Analysis: Euro May Look Past Disappointing German ZEW Data

Forex Analysis: Euro May Look Past Disappointing German ZEW Data

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

The Euro is likely to look past what could be a disappointing outcome on Germany’s ZEW investor confidence gauge before this week’s EU leaders’ summit.

Talking Points

  • German ZEW May Surprise Lower But Euro Follow-Through Unlikely
  • US Dollar May Rise as S&P 500 Futures Point to Risk-Averse Mood

December’s German ZEW Survey of investor confidence is in focus on the European economic calendar. Forecasts suggest the forward-looking Expectations index will continue to moderate, showing sentiment remains net negative but by a smaller margin. The gauge has closely tracked Italian bond yields, suggesting the evolution of the Eurozone debt crisis is the key trend-setter.

Rates on the benchmark Italian 10-year debt have edged higher this month, pointing to a pickup in funding stress and warning the ZEW reading may fall short of expectations. While this may put near-term downward pressure on the Euro, follow-through is likely to prove limited. Indeed, yields themselves are a far timelier indicator of investors’ confidence in Eurozone crisis containment efforts than the ZEW reading. Furthermore, traders are unlikely to commit to a firm directional bias until the outcome of this week’s EU Leaders’ summit.

On the sentiment front, S&P 500 futures are pointing lower, arguing for a risk-off mood heading into European trading hours and hinting the safety-linked US Dollar may have scope to advance against most of its top counterparts. Trading was muted in the overnight session, with the major currencies locked in narrow consolidation ranges.

Asia Session: What Happened

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

17:00

NZD

REINZ House Sales (YoY) (NOV)

24.1%

-

32.6%

17:00

NZD

REINZ Housing Price Index (MoM) (NOV)

1.4%

-

1.5%

17:00

NZD

REINZ Housing Price Index (NOV)

3544.4

-

3495.1

21:00

NZD

New Zealand Manpower Survey (1Q)

15%

-

19%

21:00

AUD

Australia Manpower Survey (1Q)

7%

-

9%

21:45

NZD

NZ Card Spending - Retail (MoM) (NOV)

0.5%

0.5%

0.4%

21:45

NZD

NZ Card Spending (MoM) (NOV)

0.7%

-

0.5%

23:00

NZD

QV House Prices (YoY) (NOV)

5.7%

-

5.7%

23:50

JPY

Japan Money Stock M2 (YoY) (NOV)

2.1%

2.3%

2.3%

23:50

JPY

Japan Money Stock M3 (YoY) (NOV)

1.9%

1.9%

2.0%

0:00

JPY

Japan Manpower Survey (1Q)

-

11

11.0%

0:01

GBP

RICS House Price Balance (NOV)

-9.0%

-5.0%

-7.0%

0:30

AUD

NAB Business Conditions (NOV)

-5

-

-5

0:30

AUD

NAB Business Confidence (NOV)

-9

-

-1

2:00

CNY

New Yuan Loans (NOV)

522.9B

550.0B

505.2B

Euro Session: What to Expect

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

6:30

EUR

French Nonfarm Payrolls (QoQ) (3Q F)

-0.3% (A)

-0.3%

Low

7:00

EUR

German Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (NOV)

-0.7% (A)

-0.6%

Low

7:00

EUR

German Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (NOV)

3.2% (A)

4.6%

Low

10:00

EUR

German ZEW Survey (Current Situation) (DEC)

6.0

5.4

Medium

10:00

EUR

German ZEW Survey (Econ Sentiment) (DEC)

-11.5

-15.7

High

10:00

EUR

Euro-zone ZEW Survey (Econ Sentiment) (DEC)

-

-2.6

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.2899

1.2989

GBPUSD

1.6027

1.6110

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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