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Forex Analysis: Dollar May Rise vs Yen, Fall vs Aussie on Jobs Report

Forex Analysis: Dollar May Rise vs Yen, Fall vs Aussie on Jobs Report

2012-12-07 10:48:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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The US Dollar may rise against the Japanese Yen while falling versus the Australian Dollar if November’s US jobs report tops economists’ expectations.

Talking Points

  • Dollar May Rise vs Yen, Fall Against the Aussie as US Jobs Data Tops Forecast
  • Euro Declines Overnight as Bundesbank Slashes 2013 German Growth Outlook

November’s US Employment report is in focus into the end of the trading week. Expectations suggest payrolls rose by a paltry 85,000 to mark the weakest performance in five months, with economists citing the negative impact of Hurricane Sandy as the culprit. While a slowdown seems reasonable, the degree of weakness implied by consensus forecasts suggests the final outcome would have to be utterly dismal to be seen as meaningfully disappointing.

To some extent, this caps the degree of negativity likely to emerge after the data comes across the wires. It likewise tilts volatility risk toward the upside in the event of a surprise. A better-than-forecast reading is likely to be supportive for US Treasury rates, pushing the US Dollar higher against the Japanese Yen. On the other hand, higher-yielding currencies like the Australian and New Zealand Dollars may advance against the greenback.

The Euro underperformed in overnight trade after the Bundesbank revised its 2013 projection for German economic growth to a tiny 0.4 percent from a previous estimate of 1.6 percent. The sharp downgrade elevated expectations ECB rate cut expectations for the coming year. Bets on further easing had already started to swell over the preceding 24 hours after ECB President Mario Draghi alluded to a discussion of various stimulus options at December’s policy meeting.

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:30

AUD

AiG Performance of Construction Index (NOV)

37.0

-

35.8

23:50

JPY

Official Reserve Assets (NOV)

$1270.9B

-

$1274.2B

0:30

AUD

Trade Balance (A$) (OCT)

-2088M

-2200M

-1420M (R+)

5:00

JPY

Leading Index (OCT P)

92.5

91.9

91.6

5:00

JPY

Coincident Index (OCT P)

90.6

91.0

91.5

5:30

AUD

Foreign Reserves (A$) (3Q)

A$46.2B

-

A$49.4B

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT/EXP

PREV

IMPACT

7:00

EUR

German Labor Costs w.d.a. (YoY) (3Q)

3.3% (A)

2.7%

Low

7:00

EUR

German Labor Costs s.a. (QoQ) (3Q)

0.7% (A)

1.5%

Low

7:45

EUR

French Trade Balance (€) (OCT)

-4685M (A)

-4997M

Low

7:45

EUR

Central Govt Balance () (OCT)

-94.6B (A)

-85.0B

Low

8:00

CHF

Foreign Currency Reserves (NOV)

424.8B (A)

424.4B

Low

9:30

GBP

Industrial Production (MoM) (OCT)

-0.8% (A)

-2.1%

Medium

9:30

GBP

Industrial Production (YoY) (OCT)

-3.0% (A)

-3.2%

Medium

9:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production (MoM) (OCT)

-1.3% (A)

0.0%

Low

9:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production (YoY) (OCT)

-2.1% (A)

-1.7%

Low

9:30

GBP

BoE/GfK Inflation Next 12 Mths (NOV)

3.5% (A)

3.2%

Medium

11:00

EUR

German Industrial Production (MoM) (OCT)

0.0%

-1.8%

Medium

11:00

EUR

German Industrial Production (YoY) (OCT)

-1.5%

-1.2%

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.2867

1.3054

GBPUSD

1.5897

1.6106

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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