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Forex Analysis: Euro Up on Greece Hopes, Aussie Sold Before RBA Meet

Forex Analysis: Euro Up on Greece Hopes, Aussie Sold Before RBA Meet

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

The Euro gained on hopes Greece was closer to firmly securing bailout cash as Athens initiated a debt buyback. The Aussie fell on RBA rate cut bets.

Talking Points

  • Australian Dollar Sinks on Swelling RBA Rate Cut Expectations
  • Euro Outperforms as EZ FinMins Meet, Greece Begins Buyback
  • UK, Eurozone Manufacturing PMIs in Focus on the Data Docket

The Australian Dollar underperformed in overnight trade as forex traders looked ahead to tomorrow’s RBA interest rate decision. Priced-in expectations point to a 92 percent probability of a 25bps rate cut. The Euro proved strongest at the start of the trading week as Eurozone finance ministers prepared to gather in Brussels once again. The spotlight is on a Greek debt buyback, the successful outcome of which is critical securing the continued flow of bailout funds. For its part, the Athens offered to repurchase €10 billion of its outstanding debt today.

On the economic data front, the final revision of November’s Eurozone Manufacturing PMI reading is expected to confirm a print at 46.2, showing factor-sector activity shank for a 16th consecutive month (albeit at a slower pace than in October). A significant downward revision may undermine Euro buoyancy as traders reconsider the possibility of a dovish turn at this week’s ECB policy meeting. UK Manufacturing PMI is also on tap, with forecast calling for a slight nudge higher to 48.0 in November from 47.5 in the prior month. Absent an unexpected push lower, the result is unlikely to yield a lasting impact on price action given its limited scope to nudge BOE policy expectations ahead of this week’s MPC sit-down.

Asia Session: What Happened

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:45

NZD

Terms of Trade Index (QoQ) (3Q)

-3.2%

-1.5%

-2.6% (R-)

22:30

AUD

AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index (NOV)

43.6

-

45.2

23:30

AUD

TD Securities Inflation (MoM) (NOV)

-0.1%

-

0.1%

23:30

AUD

TD Securities Inflation (YoY) (NOV)

2.5%

-

2.4%

23:30

AUD

RPData-Rismark House PX Actual (NOV)

0.0%

-

-1.0%

23:50

JPY

Capital Spending (3Q)

2.2%

4.4%

7.7%

23:50

JPY

Capital Spending excl Software(3Q)

2.4%

1.0%

6.6%

23:50

JPY

Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (OCT)

0.26%

-

0.25%

0:01

GBP

Lloyds Business Barometer (NOV)

17

-

17

0:01

GBP

Hometrack Housing Survey (MoM) (NOV)

-0.1%

-

-0.1%

0:01

GBP

Hometrack Housing Survey (YoY) (NOV)

-0.3%

-

-0.4%

0:30

AUD

Company Operating Profit (QoQ) (3Q)

-2.9%

-3.0%

-0.3% (R+)

0:30

AUD

Inventories (3Q)

1.1%

0.4%

0.3% (R-)

0:30

AUD

Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (OCT)

0.0%

0.4%

0.5%

0:30

AUD

ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (NOV)

-2.9%

-

-4.6%

1:00

CNY

Non-manufacturing PMI (NOV)

55.6

-

55.5

1:45

CNY

HSBC Manufacturing PMI (NOV)

50.5

50.4

49.5

5:00

JPY

Vehicle Sales (YoY) (NOV)

-3.3%

-

-9.0%

5:30

AUD

RBA Commodity Index SDR (YoY) (NOV)

-11.6%

-

-16.2% (R-)

5:30

AUD

RBA Commodity Price Index (NOV)

87.0

-

87.2 (R-)

Euro Session: What to Expect

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

8:15

CHF

Retail SalesReal (YoY) (OCT)

3.8%

5.4%

Medium

8:30

CHF

SVME Manufacturing PMI (NOV)

47

46.1

Medium

8:45

EUR

Italian PMI Manufacturing (NOV)

46.0

45.5

Low

8:50

EUR

French PMI Manufacturing (NOV F)

44.7

44.7

Low

8:55

EUR

German PMI Manufacturing (NOV F)

46.8

46.8

Medium

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing (NOV F)

46.2

46.2

Medium

9:30

GBP

PMI Manufacturing (NOV)

48.0

47.5

Medium

16:00

EUR

Italian Budget Balance (NOV)

-

-13.1B

Low

16:00

EUR

Italian Budget Balance YTD (NOV)

-

-58.5B

Low

16:00

EUR

Eurozone Finance Ministers Meet in Brussels

-

-

High

17:00

EUR

Italian New Car Registrations (YoY) (NOV)

-

-12.39%

Low

Critical Levels **

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.2960

1.3114

GBPUSD

1.5980

1.6096

** Intraday support and resistance levels are derived from Pivot Points

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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