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Forex Analysis: Euro May Fall on German Jobs Data, Franc Eyes GDP Data

Forex Analysis: Euro May Fall on German Jobs Data, Franc Eyes GDP Data

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

The Euro may fall as a soft German jobs report boosts ECB easing expectations while the Swiss Franc is vulnerable if third-quarter GDP data disappoints.

Talking Points

  • Euro May Fall as Soft German Jobs Report Boosts ECB Rate Cut Bets
  • Swiss GDP Disappointment May Weigh on Franc on Dovish SNB Outlook
  • Japanese Yen Sold on “Fiscal Cliff” Deal Homes, Abe Easing Threats

German Unemployment data headline the economic calendar in European hours. Economists expect the economy lost 16,000 jobs in November. This marks a slight improvement following a 20,000 drop in the prior month but broadly reinforces the steep deterioration in labor-market conditions in the second half of the year. Forex traders may interpret the outcome to reinforce fears that the malaise in the periphery of the Eurozone is infecting core member states, bolstering ECB easing expectations and pushing the Euro lower.

Swiss Gross Domestic Product figures are likewise on tap, with expectations calling for output to rise 0.2 percent in the third quarter after falling 0.1 percent in the three months through June. A print matching forecasts falls broadly in line with the four-quarter trend average and may not offer much impetus for Swiss Franc volatility. By contrast, a disappointing result may amplify concerns about the impact of the Eurozone recession on Swiss cross-border trade and weigh on the Swiss Franc as investors position for the SNB to expand monetary stimulus (including measures directed specifically at weakening the currency).

The Japanese Yen underperformed in overnight trade, down against all of its major counterparts, as a rally in Asian stocks eroded demand for the safe-haven currency. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark index added 0.8 percent, taking cues from a late-day rally on Wall Street amid hopes the US will avoid the so-called “fiscal cliff” after House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner expressed confidence in hashing out a compromise. Dovish comments from Shinzo Abe, leader of Japan’s opposition LDP party and possibly the next Prime Minister, compounded downward pressure. Abe reiterated an intent to encourage the BOJ to provide unlimited monetary easing until a 2 percent inflation target is reached.

Asia Session: What Happened

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:50

JPY

Retail Trade s.a. (MoM) (OCT)

0.7%

1.0%

-3.5% (R+)

23:50

JPY

Retail Trade (YoY) (OCT)

-1.2%

-0.8%

0.4%

23:50

JPY

Large Retailers' Sales (OCT)

-3.2%

-2.2%

-1.00%

0:00

NZD

ANZ Activity Outlook (NOV)

31.6

-

25.5

0:00

NZD

NBNZ Business Confidence (NOV)

26.4

-

17.2

0:00

AUD

HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (OCT)

3.4%

-

-3.7%

0:30

AUD

Private Capital Expenditure (3Q)

2.8%

2.0%

3.4%

1:30

JPY

BOJ Board Member Shirai Speaks to Business Leaders

-

-

-

Euro Session: What to Expect

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

6:45

CHF

Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (3Q)

0.2%

-0.1%

High

6:45

CHF

Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (3Q)

0.9%

0.5%

High

7:00

GBP

Nationwide House Prices s.a. (MoM) (NOV)

0.1%

0.6%

Low

7:00

GBP

Nationwide House Prices n.s.a. (YoY) (NOV)

-1.0%

-0.9%

Low

8:55

EUR

German Unemployment Change (NOV)

16K

20K

High

8:55

EUR

German Unemployment Rate s.a. (NOV)

6.9%

6.9%

Medium

9:00

EUR

Italian Business Confidence (NOV)

88

87.6

Low

9:00

EUR

Italian Economic Sentiment (NOV)

-

76.6

Low

9:30

GBP

Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (OCT)

0.6B

0.5B

Medium

9:30

GBP

Net Consumer Credit (OCT)

0.3B

1.2B

Low

9:30

GBP

Mortgage Approvals (OCT)

51.5K

50.0K

Low

9:30

GBP

M4 Money Supply (YoY) (OCT)

-

-3.5%

Low

9:30

GBP

M4 Money Supply (MoM) (OCT)

-

0.2%

Low

9:30

GBP

M4 ex IOFCs 3M Annualised (OCT)

-

7.4%

Low

10:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Business Climate Indicator(NOV)

-1.6

-1.62

Medium

10:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Economic Confidence (NOV)

84.5

84.5

Low

10:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (NOV F)

-26.9

-26.9

Medium

10:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Services Confidence (NOV)

-12.5

-12.1

Low

10:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Industrial Confidence (NOV)

-17.1

-18

Low

11:00

GBP

CBI Reported Sales (NOV)

18

30

Low

Critical Levels **

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.2903

1.2978

GBPUSD

1.5975

1.6066

** Intraday support and resistance levels are derived from Pivot Points

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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