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Forex Analysis: Euro at Risk on Greece Impasse, US Dollar May Rebound

Forex Analysis: Euro at Risk on Greece Impasse, US Dollar May Rebound

2012-11-26 06:51:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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The Euro appears vulnerable while the US Dollar has scope to rise on haven demand as Eurozone finance ministers attempt to secure a Greek funding deal yet again.

Talking Points

  • Eurozone FinMin Summit in Focus as Greece Resolution Remains Elusive
  • S&P 500 Futures Warn of Risk Aversion Ahead, Hinting at US Dollar Gains
  • Japanese Yen Edges Higher as BOJ Minutes Reflect Status Quo on Easing

All eyes turn to Brussels once again as Eurozone finance ministers gather for yet another summit attempting to resolve funding for Greece. The sit-down will mark the third attempt this month to work out an arrangement that would cover the €10 billion price tag for extending Athens’ deficit-reduction deadline by two years. Possible options include reducing interest rates Greece will pay on bailout loans, raising the deficit target to 124 percent of GDP by 2020 (from the current 120 percent objective), asking the ECB to contribute funds its earned on Greek bond purchases, and/or arranging a debt buyback financed with rescue cash.

While Greece is a very small part of the Euro area, it has been looked upon to set the precedent for how the single currency bloc deals with the debt crisis. Investors will swiftly translate a lack of progress that reboots fears of a disorderly endgame to the Greek ordeal into what a similar scenario would mean in countries like Spain, punishing the Euro and weighing on sentiment across financial markets. S&P 500 futures are pointing lower, reinforcing the likelihood of a risk-off mood ahead and hinting the US Dollar may rebound from key technical support.

The Japanese Yen edged narrowly higher in otherwise quiet overnight trade, adding as much as 0.3 percent on average against its leading counterparts. Minutes from October’s Bank of Japan policy meeting stuck close to familiar themes, offering little indication of a looming swell in stimulus efforts. An attempt to push for more dovish language in the policy statement by recently-minted BOJ board members Takehiro Sato and Takahide Kiuchi was outvoted 7-2.

Asia Session: What Happened

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:58

JPY

Bank of Japan Releases Minutes (OCT 30)

-

-

-

1:00

JPY

BOJ Governor Shirakawa Speech and Press Conference

-

-

-

5:00

CNY

Entrepreneur Confidence Index (3Q)

116.5

-

121.2

Euro Session: What to Expect

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

9:00

EUR

Italian Consumer Confidence Index s.a. (NOV)

-

86.4

Low

11:30

EUR

Euro-Zone Finance Ministers to Meet on Greek Debt

-

-

High

12:00

EUR

German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (NOV)

6.2

6.3

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.2900

1.3022

GBPUSD

1.5954

1.6077

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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