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Forex: Liquidity Drain May Mute Response to BOE Minutes, US Data

Forex: Liquidity Drain May Mute Response to BOE Minutes, US Data

2012-11-21 06:05:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Currency markets may yield a limited response to minutes from November’s BOE minutes and the US data set as liquidity drains before the Thanksgiving holiday.

Talking Points

  • Japanese Yen, US Dollar Diverge on Mixed Sentiment Cues in Asian Trade
  • BOE Meeting Minutes Unlikely to Yield Follow-Through from British Pound
  • S&P 500 Futures Point to Flat Risk Trends as Markets Settle for US Holiday

The Japanese Yen underperformed in overnight trade, down against all of its major counterparts, as Asian stocks advanced and sapped demand for the regional safe-haven currency. The newswires chalked up the cautious advance to another supportive set of US housing data released earlier in the day. While such outcomes buoy the outlook for Asian exporters sensitive to US demand, overall landscape was far from positive. Eurozone finance ministers failed to reach an agreement on Greek bailout funding while reports of below-the-surface tension between US officials working to avoid the so-called “fiscal cliff” began to make the rounds. This duality perhaps explains the advance in the likewise safety-linked US Dollar, where global jitters seemed to matter more than Asian growth prospects.

Looking ahead, the spotlight is on the Bank of England as it releases minutes from November’s monetary policy meeting. Barring a particularly sharp pivot in the voting pattern on the rate-setting MPC, the report seems likely to carry less weight than usual this time around considering much of what is likely to emerge was already telegraphed in the quarterly inflation report released last week. The final revision of November’s University of Michigan gauge of US consumer confidence as well as October’s Leading Indicators print headlines the docket in North American hours, but follow-through is likely to prove lacking as liquidity thins ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday. S&P 500 futures are trading flat, offering little guidance on the direction bias behind risk sentiment trends.

Asia Session: What Happened

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:30

AUD

Westpac Leading Index (MoM) (SEP)

0.7%

-

0.4% (R-)

23:50

JPY

Merch Trade Imports (YoY) (OCT)

-1.6%

-3.2%

4.1%

23:50

JPY

Merch Trade Exports (YoY) (OCT)

-6.5%

-4.9%

-10.3%

23:50

JPY

Merch Trade Balance Total (¥) (OCT)

-549.0B

-360.0B

-561.7B (R-)

23:50

JPY

Adjusted Merch Trade Balance (¥) (OCT)

-624.3B

-492.1B

-959.1B (R+)

0:00

AUD

DEWR Internet Skilled Vacancies (MoM) (OCT)

-2.5%

-

-3.7%

2:00

NZD

Credit Card Spending s.a. (MoM) (OCT)

0.3%

-

0.9%

2:00

NZD

Credit Card Spending (YoY) (OCT)

-0.9%

-

1.5%

2:00

CNY

Conference Board Leading Index (OCT)

245.5

-

241.2

Euro Session: What to Expect

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

8:00

CHF

Money Supply M3 (YoY) (OCT)

-

8.9%

Low

9:30

GBP

Bank of England Minutes

-

-

High

9:30

GBP

Public Finances (PSNCR) (£) (OCT)

-15.0B

-0.6B

Low

9:30

GBP

PSNB ex Interventions (OCT)

6.0B

12.8B

Low

9:30

GBP

Public Sector Net Borrowing (£) (OCT)

4.0B

10.7B

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.2738

1.2842

GBPUSD

1.5872

1.5942

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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