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Forex Analysis: Dollar, Yen Rise as Focus Turns to Euro FinMin Meeting

Forex Analysis: Dollar, Yen Rise as Focus Turns to Euro FinMin Meeting

2012-11-20 09:05:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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The US Dollar and Japanese Yen are likely to extend overnight gains on jitters before a meeting of Eurozone finance ministers to tackle Greek bailout funding.

Talking Points

  • US Dollar, Yen Rise on Jitters Before Eurozone FinMin Meeting
  • S&P 500 Futures Hint Continued Risk Aversion Likely Ahead

The Japanese Yen and US Dollar outperformed in overnight trade as forex traders sought the go-to safe haven currencies despite a rally across Asian stock exchanges. The performance of regional equities appeared to reflect follow-through following the sharp recovery on Wall Street while currency markets cast an uneasy eye toward a meeting of Eurozone finance ministers on tap later today.

Policymakers are set to tackle the thorny issue of Greek bailout funding. Athens has struggled to reach agreement with the so-called “troika” (EU, ECB, IMF) about the release of the latest tranche of bailout funding. Continued failure to secure a deal that restarts the near-term flow of rescue cash and deals with paying for the cost of extending the deadline for Greece to meet its budgetary objectives by two years is likely to fan the flames of sovereign risk anew.

While Greece is a very small part of the Euro area, it has been looked upon to set the precedent for how the single currency bloc deals with the debt crisis. Investors will swiftly translate a lack of progress that reboots fears of a disorderly endgame to the Greek ordeal into what a similar scenario would mean in countries like Spain, weighing on sentiment across financial markets. S&P 500 futures are pointing lower, reinforcing the likelihood of a risk-off mood in the coming hours and hinting the Dollar and Yen may remain well-supported.

Asia Session: What Happened

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:00

AUD

Conference Board Leading Index (SEP)

-0.3%

-

-0.8%

0:30

AUD

Reserve Bank Board Minutes (NOV)

-

-

-

2:00

CNY

China Actual FDI (YoY) (OCT)

-0.2%

1.0%

-6.8%

3:14

JPY

Bank of Japan Rate Decision (NOV 20)

0.1%

-

0.1%

4:30

JPY

All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (SEP)

-0.3%

-0.5%

0.0% (R-)

5:30

JPY

Nationwide Dept. Sales (YoY) (OCT)

-2.4%

-

-0.2%

5:30

JPY

Tokyo Dept. Store Sales (YoY) (OCT)

-1.5%

-

0.7%

7:00

JPY

Convenience Store Sales (YoY) (OCT)

-2.1%

-

-1.6%

Euro Session: What to Expect

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

7:00

CHF

Trade Balance (Swiss franc) (OCT)

2.82B (A)

1.93B

Medium

7:00

CHF

Exports (MoM) (OCT)

-16.5% (A)

2.9%

Low

7:00

CHF

Imports (MoM) (OCT)

-8.2% (A)

4.6%

Low

7:00

EUR

German Producer Prices (MoM) (OCT)

0.0%(A)

0.3%

Medium

7:00

EUR

German Producer Prices (YoY) (OCT)

1.5%(A)

1.7%

Medium

16:00

EUR

Eurozone Finance Ministers Meet on Greece

-

-

High

Critical Levels

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.2698

1.2846

GBPUSD

1.5862

1.5948

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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