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Forex: Euro Needs Big Miss on GDP Data for Bearish Follow-Through

Forex: Euro Needs Big Miss on GDP Data for Bearish Follow-Through

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

The Euro will likely need a particularly disappointing set of third-quarter German and region-wide GDP figures to yield significant bearish follow-through.

Talking Points

  • Euro Needs Sharp Disappointment on German, EZ GDP to See Bearish Follow-Through
  • ECB Monthly Report Sought for Growth-Supportive Policy Clues, CPI to Provide Context

German and Eurozone GDP figures headline the economic calendar in European hours. Output in the currency bloc’s largest economy is expected to add 0.1 percent in the third quarter, marking the weakest outcome since the three months through December 2011. The region-wide reading is expected to slide 0.1 percent over the same period, marking the second consecutive period in negative territory and confirming the Euro area is in a technical recession.

Softer GDP figures stand to underscore the weakness seen in the recent run of European PMI figures and may weigh on the Euro as forex traders build expectations for the ECB to boost stimulus efforts. Follow-through may be limited however considering the sluggish performance in the single currency area has been a foregone conclusion for some, with lasting negativity likely needing a particularly dramatic downside surprise. On the other hand, a print above expectations may prove significantly supportive for the shared currency as well as risk appetite in general considering the Eurozone downturn represents the most significant headwind facing overall global performance this year.

For its part, the ECB will publish November’s issue of its monthly report, with traders keen to parse the document for guidance on growth-supportive initiatives in the pipeline after Mario Draghi and company have spent much of their time preoccupied with the debt crisis over recent months. The final revision of October’s Eurozone CPI print is set to confirm flash estimates putting the year-on-year inflation rate slightly lower at 2.5 percent. The outcome is unlikely to be market-moving in its own right but may prove either amplify or countervail ECB policy clues emerging from the GDP data set.

Asia Session: What Happened

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:00

NZD

ANZ NZ Job Ads (MoM) (OCT)

-0.8%

-

-3.0% (R-)

21:30

NZD

Business NZ PMI (OCT)

50.5

-

48.5 (R+)

23:50

JPY

Housing Loans (YoY) (3Q)

3.0%

-

2.7%

0:00

NZD

ANZ Consumer Confidence (MoM) (NOV)

3.3%

-

-1.3%

0:00

NZD

ANZ Consumer Confidence Index (NOV)

114.1

-

110.5

0:00

AUD

Consumer Inflation Expectation (NOV)

2.2%

-

2.6%

0:30

AUD

RBA Foreign Exchange Transaction (A$) (OCT)

275M

-

396M

0:30

AUD

New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) (OCT)

-2.8%

-

4.6% (R-)

0:30

AUD

New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) (OCT)

8.6%

-

14.4% (R-)

5:00

JPY

Tokyo Condominium Sales (YoY) (OCT)

-14.4%

-

-9.3%

Euro Session: What to Expect

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

6:30

EUR

French GDP (QoQ) (3Q P)

0.2% (A)

-0.1%

Medium

6:30

EUR

French GDP (YoY) (3Q P)

0.2% (A)

0.1%

Medium

7:00

EUR

German GDP s.a. (QoQ) (3Q P)

0.1%

0.3%

High

7:00

EUR

German GDP w.d.a. (YoY) (3Q P)

0.8%

1.0%

High

7:00

EUR

German GDP n.s.a. (YoY) (3Q P)

0.4%

0.5%

High

9:00

EUR

ECB Publishes Monthly Report (NOV)

-

-

Medium

9:00

EUR

Italian GDP s.a. and w.d.a. (QoQ)

-0.5%

-0.8%

Medium

9:00

EUR

Italian GDP s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY)

-2.9%

-2.6%

Medium

9:30

GBP

Retail Sales ex Auto Fuel (MoM) (OCT)

-0.1%

0.6%

Medium

9:30

GBP

Retail Sales ex Auto Fuel (YoY) (OCT)

2.1%

2.9%

Medium

9:30

GBP

Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel (MoM) (OCT)

-0.1%

0.6%

Low

9:30

GBP

Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel (YoY) (OCT)

1.6%

2.5%

Low

10:00

EUR

Italian Current Account (SEP)

-

-2528M

Low

10:00

EUR

Euro-Zone CPI (MoM) (OCT)

0.2%

0.7%

High

10:00

EUR

Euro-Zone CPI (YoY) (OCT)

2.5%

2.6%

High

10:00

EUR

Euro-Zone CPI - Core (YoY) (OCT)

1.5%

1.5%

Medium

10:00

EUR

Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ) (3Q A)

-0.1%

-0.2%

High

10:00

EUR

Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (YoY) (3Q A)

-0.6%

-0.5%

High

Critical Levels

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.2698

1.2776

GBPUSD

1.5819

1.5881

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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