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Forex Analysis: US Dollar, Yen Vulnerable on Risk Appetite Recovery

Forex Analysis: US Dollar, Yen Vulnerable on Risk Appetite Recovery

2012-11-09 06:42:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
Share:

The US Dollar and Japanese Yen appear vulnerable as a corrective bounce in risk appetite is reinforced by expectations for an improvement in US consumer confidence.

Talking Points

  • German CPI Unlikely to Stir Euro Volatility After ECB Rate Decision
  • Dollar, Yen at Risk as S&P 500 Futures Point to Risk Appetite Recovery
  • US Consume Confidence Gauge Set to Hit 62-Month High in November

The final revision of October’s German CPI figures headlines a lackluster economic calendar in European hours. Expectations call for confirmation of initial estimates that put the annual inflation rate at 2 percent, unchanged from September. Barring a sharp revision to the downside, the outcome is unlikely to elicit a strong response from forex traders in the immediate aftermath of the yesterday’s ECB rate decision, where central bank President Mario Draghi offered little in terms of concrete policy guidance. September’s UK Trade Balance data is also on tap.

On the sentiment front, S&P 500 stock index futures are pointing sharply higher in late Asian hours, hinting at a risk-on mood into the end of the trading week. Such an outcome seems reasonable after two days of aggressive selling that pushed the benchmark stock index to the lowest in three months. Such an outcome may weigh on the safe-haven US Dollar and Japanese Yen against their major counterparts. A pickup in US consumer confidence may reinforce this dynamic. Expectations suggest a sentiment gauge from the University of Michigan rose to the highest level since September 2007 in November.

Asia Session: What Happened

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

20:00

NZD

REINZ Housing Price Index (MoM) (OCT)

1.5%

-

0.6%

20:00

NZD

REINZ Housing Price Index(OCT)

3495.1

-

3442.1

20:00

NZD

REINZ House Sales (YoY) (OCT)

32.6%

-

8.0%

21:45

NZD

NZ Card Spending - Retail (MoM) (OCT)

0.4%

0.3%

-0.6%

21:45

NZD

NZ Card Spending (MoM) (OCT)

0.4%

-

-0.6%

23:50

JPY

Japan Money Stock M3 (YoY) (OCT)

1.9%

2.0%

2.1% (R+)

23:50

JPY

Japan Money Stock M2+CD (YoY) (OCT)

2.3%

2.4%

2.4%

1:30

CNY

Producer Price Index (YoY) (OCT)

-2.8%

-2.7%

-3.6%

1:30

CNY

Consumer Price Index (YoY) (OCT)

1.7%

1.9%

1.9%

5:00

JPY

Consumer Confidence (OCT)

39.7

39.5

40.1

5:30

CNY

Industrial Production (YoY)

9.6%

9.4%

9.2%

5:30

CNY

Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (OCT)

10.0%

9.9%

10.0%

5:30

CNY

Retail Sales (YoY) (OCT)

14.5%

14.4%

14.2%

5:30

CNY

Retail Sales YTD (YoY) (OCT)

14.1%

14.1%

14.1%

5:30

CNY

Fixed Assets Inv Excl. Rural YTD (YoY) (OCT)

20.7%

20.6%

20.5%

Euro Session: What to Expect

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

7:00

EUR

German CPI (MoM) (OCT F)

0.0%

0.0%

Medium

7:00

EUR

German CPI (YoY) (OCT F)

2.0%

2.0%

Medium

7:00

EUR

German CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) (OCT F)

0.1%

0.1%

Medium

7:00

EUR

German CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) (OCT F)

2.1%

2.1%

Medium

7:30

EUR

French Bank of France Business Sentiment (OCT)

90

92

Low

7:45

EUR

French Industrial Production (MoM) (SEP)

-1.0%

1.5%

Low

7:45

EUR

French Industrial Production (YoY) (SEP)

-0.1%

-0.9%

Low

7:45

EUR

French Survey of Industrial Investments

-

-

Low

7:45

EUR

French Central Govt. Balance (€) (SEP)

-

-97.7B

Low

7:45

EUR

French Manufacturing Production (MoM) (SEP)

-1.3%

1.8%

Low

7:45

EUR

French Manufacturing Production (YoY) (SEP)

-0.1%

-0.4%

Low

9:00

EUR

Italian Industrial Production wda (YoY) (SEP)

-4.7%

-5.2%

Low

9:00

EUR

Italian Industrial Production nsa (YoY) (SEP)

-

-5.1%

Low

9:00

EUR

Italian Industrial Production sa (MoM) (SEP)

-1.6%

1.7%

Low

9:30

GBP

Visible Trade Balance (£) (SEP)

-8900

-9844

Medium

9:30

GBP

Trade Balance Non EU (£) (SEP)

-4600

-4972

Low

9:30

GBP

Total Trade Balance (£) (SEP)

-3200

-4169

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.2716

1.2812

GBPUSD

1.5941

1.6048

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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