We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Over the past 30 days, #NZD has been the best performing G10 currencies vs. USD with 1.75% spot-returns while #CAD has been the worst with -0.18%
  • Have you joined @DailyFX @facebook group yet? Discuss your #forex strategies and brush up on your skills with us here: https://t.co/jtY1G7g8yx https://t.co/zSu6vNcTG5
  • #CLP, #BRL and the #ZAR are expected to be the most active Emerging Markets currencies vs #USD with 1-week implied volatilities at 15.43, 12.32 and 11.38 respectively
  • RT @RANsquawk: Asia fails to sustain the momentum from last Friday's record highs on Wall St, with the major indices in the region subdued…
  • (Asia Pacific AM Briefing) Will USD/JPY, AUD/USD and NZD/USD Prices Extend Recent Gains? $USDJPY $AUDUSD $NZDUSD - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/asia_am_briefing/2019/11/18/Will-USDJPY-AUDUSD-and-NZDUSD-Prices-Extend-Recent-Gains.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702 https://t.co/NGza2qGF5r
  • 🇬🇧 GBP Rightmove House Prices (YoY) (NOV), Actual: 0.3% Expected: N/A Previous: -0.2% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2019-11-18
  • UK’s Rightmove House Prices (YoY) (NOV) Actual: 0.3% Est: N/A Previous: -0.2% #GBP
  • Heads Up:🇬🇧 GBP Rightmove House Prices (YoY) (NOV) due at 00:01 GMT (15min), Actual: N/A Expected: N/A Previous: -0.2% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2019-11-18
  • 🇯🇵 JPY Housing Loans (YoY) (3Q), Actual: 2.9% Expected: N/A Previous: 2.2% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2019-11-17
  • RT @MarketWatch: Hong Kong police storm campus to flush out protesters amid first appearance of Chinese troops https://t.co/cxiw7k9hWR
Forex Analysis: US Dollar, Yen Vulnerable on Risk Appetite Recovery

Forex Analysis: US Dollar, Yen Vulnerable on Risk Appetite Recovery

2012-11-09 06:42:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
Share:

The US Dollar and Japanese Yen appear vulnerable as a corrective bounce in risk appetite is reinforced by expectations for an improvement in US consumer confidence.

Talking Points

  • German CPI Unlikely to Stir Euro Volatility After ECB Rate Decision
  • Dollar, Yen at Risk as S&P 500 Futures Point to Risk Appetite Recovery
  • US Consume Confidence Gauge Set to Hit 62-Month High in November

The final revision of October’s German CPI figures headlines a lackluster economic calendar in European hours. Expectations call for confirmation of initial estimates that put the annual inflation rate at 2 percent, unchanged from September. Barring a sharp revision to the downside, the outcome is unlikely to elicit a strong response from forex traders in the immediate aftermath of the yesterday’s ECB rate decision, where central bank President Mario Draghi offered little in terms of concrete policy guidance. September’s UK Trade Balance data is also on tap.

On the sentiment front, S&P 500 stock index futures are pointing sharply higher in late Asian hours, hinting at a risk-on mood into the end of the trading week. Such an outcome seems reasonable after two days of aggressive selling that pushed the benchmark stock index to the lowest in three months. Such an outcome may weigh on the safe-haven US Dollar and Japanese Yen against their major counterparts. A pickup in US consumer confidence may reinforce this dynamic. Expectations suggest a sentiment gauge from the University of Michigan rose to the highest level since September 2007 in November.

Asia Session: What Happened

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

20:00

NZD

REINZ Housing Price Index (MoM) (OCT)

1.5%

-

0.6%

20:00

NZD

REINZ Housing Price Index(OCT)

3495.1

-

3442.1

20:00

NZD

REINZ House Sales (YoY) (OCT)

32.6%

-

8.0%

21:45

NZD

NZ Card Spending - Retail (MoM) (OCT)

0.4%

0.3%

-0.6%

21:45

NZD

NZ Card Spending (MoM) (OCT)

0.4%

-

-0.6%

23:50

JPY

Japan Money Stock M3 (YoY) (OCT)

1.9%

2.0%

2.1% (R+)

23:50

JPY

Japan Money Stock M2+CD (YoY) (OCT)

2.3%

2.4%

2.4%

1:30

CNY

Producer Price Index (YoY) (OCT)

-2.8%

-2.7%

-3.6%

1:30

CNY

Consumer Price Index (YoY) (OCT)

1.7%

1.9%

1.9%

5:00

JPY

Consumer Confidence (OCT)

39.7

39.5

40.1

5:30

CNY

Industrial Production (YoY)

9.6%

9.4%

9.2%

5:30

CNY

Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (OCT)

10.0%

9.9%

10.0%

5:30

CNY

Retail Sales (YoY) (OCT)

14.5%

14.4%

14.2%

5:30

CNY

Retail Sales YTD (YoY) (OCT)

14.1%

14.1%

14.1%

5:30

CNY

Fixed Assets Inv Excl. Rural YTD (YoY) (OCT)

20.7%

20.6%

20.5%

Euro Session: What to Expect

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

7:00

EUR

German CPI (MoM) (OCT F)

0.0%

0.0%

Medium

7:00

EUR

German CPI (YoY) (OCT F)

2.0%

2.0%

Medium

7:00

EUR

German CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) (OCT F)

0.1%

0.1%

Medium

7:00

EUR

German CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) (OCT F)

2.1%

2.1%

Medium

7:30

EUR

French Bank of France Business Sentiment (OCT)

90

92

Low

7:45

EUR

French Industrial Production (MoM) (SEP)

-1.0%

1.5%

Low

7:45

EUR

French Industrial Production (YoY) (SEP)

-0.1%

-0.9%

Low

7:45

EUR

French Survey of Industrial Investments

-

-

Low

7:45

EUR

French Central Govt. Balance (€) (SEP)

-

-97.7B

Low

7:45

EUR

French Manufacturing Production (MoM) (SEP)

-1.3%

1.8%

Low

7:45

EUR

French Manufacturing Production (YoY) (SEP)

-0.1%

-0.4%

Low

9:00

EUR

Italian Industrial Production wda (YoY) (SEP)

-4.7%

-5.2%

Low

9:00

EUR

Italian Industrial Production nsa (YoY) (SEP)

-

-5.1%

Low

9:00

EUR

Italian Industrial Production sa (MoM) (SEP)

-1.6%

1.7%

Low

9:30

GBP

Visible Trade Balance (£) (SEP)

-8900

-9844

Medium

9:30

GBP

Trade Balance Non EU (£) (SEP)

-4600

-4972

Low

9:30

GBP

Total Trade Balance (£) (SEP)

-3200

-4169

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.2716

1.2812

GBPUSD

1.5941

1.6048

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, please CLICK HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.