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Forex Analysis: Dollar at Risk if US Election Yields Decisive Outcome

Forex Analysis: Dollar at Risk if US Election Yields Decisive Outcome

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

The US Dollar is likely to face selling pressure if the US general election yields a decisive outcome, opening the door for a re-focus on resolving the “fiscal cliff” fiasco.

Talking Points

  • All Eyes on US Election, Forex Traders to Welcome Any Decisive Result
  • Euro, Pound May Suffer as Data Boosts Bets on ECB and BOE Stimulus
  • Aussie Dollar Leads Comm Bloc Higher as RBA Leaves Rates Unchanged

A busy European economic calendar is likely to be overshadowed as traders await the outcome of the US general election. Financial markets appear broadly chipper, which likely reflects hopes for an easing to the deadlock in Washington DC in the months leading up to today’s ballot. Indeed, a decisive victory by either candidate that opens the door for the current President and legislature to shift their focus toward addressing the fast-approaching “fiscal cliff” – a set of automatic spending cuts and tax hikes slated to trigger at the turn of the calendar year that may tip the US back into recession – is likely to be seen as broadly supportive for risk appetite. Indeed, S&P 500 index futures are pointing higher, warning the safe-haven US Dollar is vulnerable.

On the data front, the spotlight is on the final revision of October’s Eurozone PMI Composite reading. Expectations call for confirmation at a 40-month low, an outcome that may put downward pressure on the Euro as forex traders consider deepening recession to increase the probability of additional easing from the ECB. UK Industrial Production is likewise on the docket, with forecasts pointing to another contraction in September. The result may weigh on the British Pound as markets consider the possibility of a QE expansion after the BOE completes the latest round of asset purchases this month.

The so-called “commodity bloc” currencies outperformed in overnight trade as risk appetite firmed across financial markets. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional stock index rose 0.2 percent, pulling the growth-geared Canadian and New Zealand Dollars higher against their US namesake. The Australian Dollar outperformed its counterparts after the Reserve Bank of Australia opted to keep rates unchanged at 3.25 percent. RBA Governor Glenn Stevens said that while “risks to the outlook are still seen to be on the downside…prices data [turned out] slightly higher than expected and recent information on the world economy slightly more positive.” Stevens added the effects of past rate cuts continue to filter into the overall economy, hinting that will offer ongoing stimulus even without an additional reduction this time around.

Asia Session: What Happened

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:45

NZD

Private Wages ex Overtime (QoQ) (3Q)

0.5%

0.5%

0.5%

21:45

NZD

Labor Cost Private Sector (QoQ) (3Q)

0.5%

0.5%

0.5%

21:45

NZD

Average Hourly Earnings (QoQ) (3Q)

1.4%

1.0%

0.2%

0:01

GBP

BRC Sales Like-For-Like (YoY) (OCT)

-0.1%

1.3%

1.5%

0:30

AUD

House Price Index (QoQ) (3Q)

0.3%

1.0%

0.6% (R+)

0:30

AUD

House Price Index (YoY) (3Q)

0.3%

0.8%

-1.9% (R+)

3:30

AUD

Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision

3.25%

3.00%

3.25%

5:00

JPY

Coincident Index (SEP P)

91.2

91.2

93.5

5:00

JPY

Leading Index (SEP P)

91.7

91.8

93.2

Euro Session: What to Expect

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT/EXP

PREV

IMPACT

6:45

CHF

SECO Consumer Confidence (OCT)

-17 (A)

-17

Low

8:00

GBP

Halifax Plc House Prices s.a. (MoM) (OCT)

0.4% (A)

-0.4%

Low

8:00

GBP

Halifax House Price (3MoY) (OCT)

-1.3% (A)

-1.2%

Low

8:45

EUR

Italian PMI Services (OCT)

44.5

44.5

Medium

8:50

EUR

French PMI Services (OCT F)

46.2

46.2

Medium

8:55

EUR

German PMI Services (OCT F)

49.3

49.3

Medium

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone PMI Composite (OCT F)

45.8

45.8

Medium

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone PMI Services (OCT F)

46.2

46.2

Medium

9:30

GBP

Industrial Production (MoM) (SEP)

-0.6%

-0.5%

Medium

9:30

GBP

Industrial Production (YoY) (SEP)

-1.6%

-1.2%

Medium

9:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production (MoM) (SEP)

-0.8%

-1.2%

Low

9:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production (YoY) (SEP)

0.4%

-1.1%

Low

10:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (MoM) (SEP)

0.2%

0.9%

Medium

10:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) (SEP)

2.6%

2.7%

Medium

11:00

EUR

German Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) (SEP)

-0.4%

-1.3%

Medium

11:00

EUR

German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (SEP)

-1.5%

-4.8%

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.2760

1.2835

GBPUSD

1.5943

1.6024

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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