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Dollar at Risk on Firming Risk Appetite, Yen Sold on BOJ Stimulus Bets

Dollar at Risk on Firming Risk Appetite, Yen Sold on BOJ Stimulus Bets

2012-10-22 06:45:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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The US Dollar looks vulnerable as S&P 500 futures point to a pickup in risk appetite. The Japanese Yen tumbled overnight on BOJ stimulus speculation.

Talking Points

  • Japanese Yen Sold in Asia on BOJ Stimulus Speculation, Exports Drop
  • Quiet Data Calendar Shifts Spotlight to CAT, FCX Earnings Reports
  • S&P 500 Futures Rise, Warning US Dollar May Fall on Risk Appetite

The Japanese Yen underperformed in overnight trade in a move the newswires chalked up to swelling Bank of Japan stimulus expectations. A report from Morgan Stanley / Mitsubishi UFJ argued the central bank will expand stimulus efforts by a further ¥10 trillion at this month’s policy meeting. Meanwhile, the BOJ downgraded the economic outlook for eight out of nine of Japan’s regions in its quarterly report. September’s Trade Balance figures likewise proved disappointing, bolstering the case for additional accommodation. Exports fell at an annual pace of 10.3 percent, the worst outcome since May 2011.

Looking ahead, a quiet economic calendar in Europe and empty one in the US shifts the spotlight to the third-quarter earnings docket. Reports from cycle-sensitive names including Caterpillar (CAT) and Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) are in focus. As we discussed in our weekly US Dollar forecast, traders are likely to look at the guidance from such names for broad-based global growth cues as traders weigh sluggish performance in Europe and Asia against a cautious pickup in North America.

S&P 500 index futures are pointing meaningfully higher in late Asian hours, hinting at reasonably well-supported risk sentiment heading into the European session. This warns that the safe-haven US Dollarmay face continued pressure against most of its top counterparts (with the notable exclusion of the Yen).

Asia Session: What Happened

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:50

JPY

Merch. Trade Balance Total (¥) (SEP)

-558.6B

-547.9B

-755.9B (R-)

23:50

JPY

Adj Merch. Trade Balance (¥) (SEP)

-980.3B

-760.3B

-461.9B (R+)

23:50

JPY

Merchandise Trade Exports (YoY) (SEP)

-10.3%

-9.9%

-5.8%

23:50

JPY

Merchandise Trade Imports (YoY) (SEP)

4.1%

2.9%

-5.4%

5:00

JPY

Supermarket Sales (YoY) (SEP)

-2.0%

-

-1.3%

5:30

JPY

Nationwide Dept Store Sales (YoY) (SEP)

-0.2%

-

-1.0%

5:30

JPY

Tokyo Dept Store Sales (YoY) (SEP)

0.7%

-

0.2%

7:00

JPY

Convenience Store Sales (YoY) (SEP)

-1.6%

-

-1.3%

Euro Session: What to Expect

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

7:00

CHF

Money Supply M3 (YoY) (SEP)

-

8.5%

Low

7:00

CHF

Real Estate Index Family Homes (Q3)

-

408.4

Low

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Govt Debt-GDP Ratio (JUL 3)

-

87.2%

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.2999

1.3102

GBPUSD

1.5978

1.6093

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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