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Dollar Vulnerable on US Data Surprise Risk, EU Summit Fails to Excite

Dollar Vulnerable on US Data Surprise Risk, EU Summit Fails to Excite

2012-10-19 05:29:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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The US Dollar may fall anew if better-than-expected economic data buoys risk appetite. The EU leaders’ summit is failing to yield meaningful results.

Talking Points

  • New Zealand Dollar Outperforms in Otherwise Quiet Overnight Trade
  • EU Leaders’ Summit Failing to Yield Meaningful Progress on Core Issues
  • Dollar Selling May Resume if US Economic Data Tops Expectations Again

Currency markets languished in consolidation mode overnight, with the US Dollar confined in narrow ranges against its leading counterparts. The New Zealand Dollar narrowly outperformed, helped along as Credit Card Spending rose 0.9 percent in September to mark the largest monthly increase in nine months.

A quiet European economic calendar keeps the spotlight on Brussels where the EU Leaders’ Summit goes into its second day. Meaningful progress on core issues appeared unlikely as officials gathered in Brussels yesterday and policymakers didn’t disappoint. Day one of the outing ran late into the night but produced little besides backslapping and glad-handing. More of the same on day two stands to relegate the entire affair to a non-event.

Greece was praised for progress on the austerity but a clear decision to unlock additional funding was absent while a Spanish bailout was reportedly not discussed at all. Negotiations on banking union showed no signs of advancement as officials stuck with a January 1 deadline to produce agreement but stayed mum on details. Despite the apparent absence of anything concrete, French President Hollande declared the worst of the crisis has passed and even suggested he would be open to relaxing budgetary controls in the future.

Later in the day, the spotlight returns to the US economic calendar. September’s Existing Home Sales report is on tap. Expectations point to a narrow pullback yielding a print at 4.74 million after sales hit a 27-month high at 4.82 million in the prior month.

While a disappointing outcome may weigh on risk appetite, denting hopes that a pickup in the US will help offset sluggish performance in Europe and China, the door appears open for an upside surprise. Indeed, US economic data has increasingly topped forecasts over the past six weeks. Such an outcome threatens to weigh on the US Dollar as support from haven-seeking capital flows unravels anew.

Asia Session: What Happened

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:45

NZD

Net Migration SA (SEP)

90

-

-270 (R+)

1:35

CNY

MNI Flash Business Sentiment Indicator (OCT)

51.52

-

51.35

2:00

CNY

Actual FDI (YoY) (SEP)

-6.8%

-3.5%

-1.40%

2:00

NZD

Credit Card Spending SA (MoM) (SEP)

0.9%

-

0.2% (R+)

2:00

NZD

Credit Card Spending (YoY) (SEP)

1.5%

-

1.9%

4:30

JPY

All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (AUG)

0.1%

0.1%

-0.6%

5:00

JPY

Coincident Index (AUG F)

93.5

-

93.6

5:00

JPY

Leading Index (AUG F)

93.2

-

93.6

Euro Session: What to Expect

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

-

EUR

EU Leaders’ Summit in Brussels – Day Two

-

-

High

6:00

EUR

German Producer Prices (MoM) (SEP)

0.3%

0.5%

Medium

6:00

EUR

German Producer Prices (YoY) (SEP)

1.6%

1.6%

Medium

8:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Current Account n.s.a. (€) (AUG)

-

15.9B

Low

8:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Current Account s.a. (€) (AUG)

-

9.7B

Low

8:00

EUR

Italian Industrial Orders s.a. (MoM) (AUG)

-

2.9%

Low

8:00

EUR

Italian Industrial Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (AUG)

-

-4.9%

Low

8:00

EUR

Italian Industrial Sales s.a. (MoM) (AUG)

-

1.2%

Low

8:00

EUR

Italian Industrial Sales n.s.a. (YoY) (AUG)

-

-5.3%

Low

8:30

GBP

PSNB ex Interventions (SEP)

13.5B

14.4B

Low

8:30

GBP

Public Finances (PSNCR) (£) (SEP)

4.7B

-9.6B

Low

8:30

GBP

Public Sector Net Borrowing (£) (SEP)

11.7B

12.4B

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.3039

1.3112

GBPUSD

1.6000

1.6129

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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