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Dollar Vulnerable to Rebound in Sentiment on Firmer US Growth Hopes

Dollar Vulnerable to Rebound in Sentiment on Firmer US Growth Hopes

2012-09-25 06:08:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points

  • Euro Crisis Cues Sought as Merkel Meets with Draghi, Italy and Spain Sell Bonds
  • Dollar May Decline as Firmer US Economic Data Stocks Risk Appetite Recovery

A lackluster European economic data docket will keep investors’ eyes on Eurozone debt crisis management efforts. A meeting between German Chancellor Angela Markel and ECB President Mario Draghi is likely to warrant particular attention. No press briefing is scheduled but traders will keep a close eye on any sideline commentary.

German and Dutch Finance Ministers Wolfgang Schaeuble and Jan Kees de Jager are also due to discuss the crisis with their perennially euro-skeptic Finnish counterpart Jutta Urpilainen. Finally, Spain and Italy are due to tap the bond markets. Madrid will sell 77- and 168-day bills while Rome offers up 2014 zero-coupon paper as well as 2016 and 2021 inflation-linked bonds. Investors will look to average yields and bid-to-cover readings for signs of funding stress.

Later in the session, the spotlight turns to the US calendar, with September’s US Consumer Confidence reading and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Indexon tap. Improvements are being forecast on both fronts. US data has increasingly outperformed expectations over recent weeks (according to data compiled by Citigroup). More of the same this time around may underpin risk appetite trends amid hopes that a firmer recovery in the US will offset a recession in Europe and a slowdown in Asia, weighing broadly on the greenback.

With that in mind, yesterday’s better-than-expected Dallas Fed print passed unnoticed, so follow-through may well prove absent again.Separately, Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser will give a speech on the economic outlook, though with renewed easing already underway it is unclear how much market-moving potential the remarks will carry. S&P 500 stock index futures are pointing modestly higher, signaling a cautiously risk-on disposition heading into the opening bell in Europe.

Asia Session: What Happened

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:50

JPY

Corporate Service Price (YoY) (AUG)

-0.3%

-0.3%

-0.3%

2:00

CNY

Conference Board Leading Economic Index (AUG)

240.4

-

236.4

5:00

JPY

Small Business Confidence (SEP)

45.1

-

44.8

Euro Session: What to Expect

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

6:00

EUR

German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (OCT)

5.9

5.9

Medium

6:00

CHF

UBS Consumption Indicator (AUG)

-

1.55

Low

6:45

EUR

French Own-Company Production Outlook (SEP)

-

-6

Low

6:45

EUR

French Business Confidence Indicator (SEP)

89

90

Low

6:45

EUR

French Production Outlook Indicator (SEP)

-44

-44

Low

8:00

EUR

Italian Consumer Confidence Ind. sa (SEP)

86

86

Low

8:30

GBP

BBA Loans for House Purchase (AUG)

28100

28441

Medium

8:30

EUR

Spain to Sell 77- and 168-day Bills

-

-

Medium

9:00

EUR

Italian Hourly Wages (MoM) (AUG)

-

0.0%

Low

9:00

EUR

Italian Hourly Wages (YoY) (AUG)

-

1.5%

Low

9:00

EUR

Italy to Sell 2014 Zero-Coupon, 2016-21 I/L Bonds

-

-

Medium

11:30

EUR

Germany’s Merkel, ECB’s Draghi Meet in Berlin

-

-

Medium

12:30

EUR

Dutch, German and Finnish FinMins Meet in Vantaa

-

-

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.2830

1.2992

GBPUSD

1.6183

1.6286

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

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