Talking Points
- Eurozone PMIs, Spain Bond Auction in Focus in European Session
- Dollar, Yen Rise on Haven Demand as Risk Appetite Sinks in Asia
- S&P 500 Futures Hint Sentiment Likely to Remain Under Pressure
The US Dollar and Japanese Yen advanced in overnight trade as Asian stocks declined, driving demand for the go-to safe haven currencies. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark index fell 1 percent as the day’s economic data set stocked growth slowdown fears. Japanese Exports fell for a third consecutive month, shrinking at an annual pace of 5.8 percent, while the HSBC Chinese Manufacturing PMI gauge revealed that factory-sector activity contracted for the tenth consecutive month (albeit at a slightly slower pace) in September. The Australian Dollar bore the brunt of the selloff, down as much as 0.6 percent on average against its top counterparts.
The preliminary set of September’s Eurozone PMI readings is in focus in European hours. The regional composite gauge is expected to show manufacturing- and service-sector activity shrank once again, marking the eight consecutive month in negative territory. A slight moderation in the pace of contraction may keep ECB easing expectations at bay however, meaning the data’ implications for the Euro could prove relatively limited. Separately, Spain is due to sell a tranche of 2015 and 2022 bonds, with traders keeping a close eye on average yield and bid-to-cover readings for signs of returning sovereign stress. On the sentiment front, S&P 500 stock index futures are pointing meaningfully lower, hinting the risk-off mood may continue to keep the Dollar and Yen elevated against the major currencies.
Asia Session: What Happened
|
GMT |
CCY |
EVENT |
ACT |
EXP |
PREV |
|
22:00 |
ANZ NZ Job Ads (MoM) (AUG) |
0.9% |
- |
0.7% |
|
|
22:45 |
Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (AUG) |
0.6% |
0.4% |
1.0% |
|
|
22:45 |
Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (AUG) |
2.6% |
2.4% |
2.3% |
|
|
23:50 |
JPY |
Merchandise Trade Balance Total (¥) (AUG) |
-754.1B |
-829.3B |
-518.9B |
|
23:50 |
JPY |
Adj Merchandise Trade Balance (¥) (AUG) |
-472.8B |
-384.6B |
-371.9B |
|
23:50 |
JPY |
Merchandise Trade Exports (YoY) (AUG) |
-5.8% |
-7.5% |
-8.1% |
|
23:50 |
JPY |
Merchandise Trade Imports (YoY) (AUG) |
-5.4% |
-5.5% |
2.1% |
|
1:00 |
AUD |
Westpac ACCI Survey of Industrial Trends (3Q) |
52.4 |
- |
48.3 |
|
1:30 |
AUD |
RBA Foreign Exchange Transaction (A$)(AUG) |
351 |
- |
528 |
|
2:30 |
CNY |
HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (SEP) |
47.8 |
- |
47.6 |
|
4:30 |
JPY |
All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (JUL) |
-0.6% |
-0.5% |
0.3% (R+) |
|
5:00 |
JPY |
Bank of Japan Monthly Economic Report |
- |
- |
- |
|
5:30 |
JPY |
Tokyo Department Store Sales (YoY) (AUG) |
0.2% |
- |
-1.0% |
|
5:30 |
JPY |
Nationwide Department Store Sales (YoY) (AUG) |
-1.0% |
- |
-3.3% |
|
6:00 |
JPY |
Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (AUG F) |
-2.7% |
- |
-2.6% |
Euro Session: What to Expect
|
GMT |
CCY |
EVENT |
EXP |
PREV |
IMPACT |
|
6:00 |
Trade Balance (CHF) (AUG) |
- |
2.92B |
Medium |
|
|
6:00 |
Imports (MoM) (AUG) |
- |
-1.2% |
Low |
|
|
6:00 |
Exports (MoM) (AUG) |
- |
-0.6% |
Low |
|
|
6:00 |
EUR |
German Producer Prices (MoM) (AUG) |
0.4% |
0.0% |
Low |
|
6:00 |
EUR |
German Producer Prices (YoY) (AUG) |
1.5% |
0.9% |
Low |
|
7:00 |
JPY |
Convenience Store Sales (YoY) |
- |
-3.3% |
Low |
|
7:00 |
EUR |
French PMI Services (SEP P) |
49.5 |
49.2 |
Low |
|
7:00 |
EUR |
French PMI Manufacturing (SEP P) |
46.4 |
46 |
Low |
|
7:15 |
Industrial Production (YoY) (2Q) |
- |
1.4% |
Medium |
|
|
7:30 |
EUR |
German PMI Manufacturing (SEP A) |
45.2 |
44.7 |
Medium |
|
7:30 |
EUR |
German PMI Services (SEP A) |
48.5 |
48.3 |
Medium |
|
8:00 |
EUR |
Euro-Zone PMI Services (SEP A) |
47.5 |
47.2 |
Medium |
|
8:00 |
EUR |
Euro-Zone PMI Composite (SEP A) |
46.6 |
46.3 |
Medium |
|
8:00 |
EUR |
Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing (SEP A) |
45.5 |
45.1 |
Medium |
|
8:00 |
EUR |
Italian Industrial Sales s.a. (MoM) (JUL) |
- |
-0.5% |
Low |
|
8:00 |
EUR |
Italian Industrial Sales n.s.a. (YoY) (JUL) |
- |
-2.7% |
Low |
|
8:00 |
EUR |
Italian Industrial Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (JUL) |
- |
-9.4% |
Low |
|
8:00 |
EUR |
Italian Industrial Orders s.a. (MoM) (JUL) |
-0.3% |
1.7% |
Low |
|
8:30 |
EUR |
Spain to Sell 2015-2022 Bonds |
- |
- |
Medium |
|
8:30 |
Retail Sales ex Auto Fuel (YoY) (AUG) |
3.2% |
3.3% |
Medium |
|
|
8:30 |
Retail Sales ex Auto Fuel (MoM) (AUG) |
-0.4% |
0.0% |
Medium |
|
|
8:30 |
Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel (MoM) (AUG) |
-0.3% |
0.3% |
Low |
|
|
8:30 |
Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel (YoY) (AUG) |
2.9% |
2.8% |
Low |
|
|
10:00 |
CBI Trends Total Orders (SEP) |
-15 |
-21 |
Low |
|
|
10:00 |
CBI Trends Selling Prices (SEP) |
3 |
1 |
Low |
Critical Levels
|
CCY |
SUPPORT |
RESISTANCE |
|
1.2950 |
1.3091 |
|
|
1.6140 |
1.6267 |
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com
To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak
To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com
