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Dollar, Yen Aim to Extend Gains as Risk Aversion Grips FX Markets

Dollar, Yen Aim to Extend Gains as Risk Aversion Grips FX Markets

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points

  • Eurozone PMIs, Spain Bond Auction in Focus in European Session
  • Dollar, Yen Rise on Haven Demand as Risk Appetite Sinks in Asia
  • S&P 500 Futures Hint Sentiment Likely to Remain Under Pressure

The US Dollar and Japanese Yen advanced in overnight trade as Asian stocks declined, driving demand for the go-to safe haven currencies. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark index fell 1 percent as the day’s economic data set stocked growth slowdown fears. Japanese Exports fell for a third consecutive month, shrinking at an annual pace of 5.8 percent, while the HSBC Chinese Manufacturing PMI gauge revealed that factory-sector activity contracted for the tenth consecutive month (albeit at a slightly slower pace) in September. The Australian Dollar bore the brunt of the selloff, down as much as 0.6 percent on average against its top counterparts.

The preliminary set of September’s Eurozone PMI readings is in focus in European hours. The regional composite gauge is expected to show manufacturing- and service-sector activity shrank once again, marking the eight consecutive month in negative territory. A slight moderation in the pace of contraction may keep ECB easing expectations at bay however, meaning the data’ implications for the Euro could prove relatively limited. Separately, Spain is due to sell a tranche of 2015 and 2022 bonds, with traders keeping a close eye on average yield and bid-to-cover readings for signs of returning sovereign stress. On the sentiment front, S&P 500 stock index futures are pointing meaningfully lower, hinting the risk-off mood may continue to keep the Dollar and Yen elevated against the major currencies.

Asia Session: What Happened

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:00

NZD

ANZ NZ Job Ads (MoM) (AUG)

0.9%

-

0.7%

22:45

NZD

Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (AUG)

0.6%

0.4%

1.0%

22:45

NZD

Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (AUG)

2.6%

2.4%

2.3%

23:50

JPY

Merchandise Trade Balance Total (¥) (AUG)

-754.1B

-829.3B

-518.9B

23:50

JPY

Adj Merchandise Trade Balance (¥) (AUG)

-472.8B

-384.6B

-371.9B

23:50

JPY

Merchandise Trade Exports (YoY) (AUG)

-5.8%

-7.5%

-8.1%

23:50

JPY

Merchandise Trade Imports (YoY) (AUG)

-5.4%

-5.5%

2.1%

1:00

AUD

Westpac ACCI Survey of Industrial Trends (3Q)

52.4

-

48.3

1:30

AUD

RBA Foreign Exchange Transaction (A$)(AUG)

351

-

528

2:30

CNY

HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (SEP)

47.8

-

47.6

4:30

JPY

All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (JUL)

-0.6%

-0.5%

0.3% (R+)

5:00

JPY

Bank of Japan Monthly Economic Report

-

-

-

5:30

JPY

Tokyo Department Store Sales (YoY) (AUG)

0.2%

-

-1.0%

5:30

JPY

Nationwide Department Store Sales (YoY) (AUG)

-1.0%

-

-3.3%

6:00

JPY

Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (AUG F)

-2.7%

-

-2.6%

Euro Session: What to Expect

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

6:00

CHF

Trade Balance (CHF) (AUG)

-

2.92B

Medium

6:00

CHF

Imports (MoM) (AUG)

-

-1.2%

Low

6:00

CHF

Exports (MoM) (AUG)

-

-0.6%

Low

6:00

EUR

German Producer Prices (MoM) (AUG)

0.4%

0.0%

Low

6:00

EUR

German Producer Prices (YoY) (AUG)

1.5%

0.9%

Low

7:00

JPY

Convenience Store Sales (YoY)

-

-3.3%

Low

7:00

EUR

French PMI Services (SEP P)

49.5

49.2

Low

7:00

EUR

French PMI Manufacturing (SEP P)

46.4

46

Low

7:15

CHF

Industrial Production (YoY) (2Q)

-

1.4%

Medium

7:30

EUR

German PMI Manufacturing (SEP A)

45.2

44.7

Medium

7:30

EUR

German PMI Services (SEP A)

48.5

48.3

Medium

8:00

EUR

Euro-Zone PMI Services (SEP A)

47.5

47.2

Medium

8:00

EUR

Euro-Zone PMI Composite (SEP A)

46.6

46.3

Medium

8:00

EUR

Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing (SEP A)

45.5

45.1

Medium

8:00

EUR

Italian Industrial Sales s.a. (MoM) (JUL)

-

-0.5%

Low

8:00

EUR

Italian Industrial Sales n.s.a. (YoY) (JUL)

-

-2.7%

Low

8:00

EUR

Italian Industrial Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (JUL)

-

-9.4%

Low

8:00

EUR

Italian Industrial Orders s.a. (MoM) (JUL)

-0.3%

1.7%

Low

8:30

EUR

Spain to Sell 2015-2022 Bonds

-

-

Medium

8:30

GBP

Retail Sales ex Auto Fuel (YoY) (AUG)

3.2%

3.3%

Medium

8:30

GBP

Retail Sales ex Auto Fuel (MoM) (AUG)

-0.4%

0.0%

Medium

8:30

GBP

Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel (MoM) (AUG)

-0.3%

0.3%

Low

8:30

GBP

Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel (YoY) (AUG)

2.9%

2.8%

Low

10:00

GBP

CBI Trends Total Orders (SEP)

-15

-21

Low

10:00

GBP

CBI Trends Selling Prices (SEP)

3

1

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.2950

1.3091

GBPUSD

1.6140

1.6267

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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