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Markets Brace for Today's German High Court and EU Announcements

Markets Brace for Today's German High Court and EU Announcements

2012-09-12 06:05:00
Benjamin Spier, Technical Strategist
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Talking Points

  • EU to present banking union details at 07:00 GMT
  • German high court announces ESM ruling at 08:00 GMT
  • Chinese Premier says still room for additional stimulus measures

Today’s European session includes two important updates for the Euro debt crisis. The bigger of the two will be the German high court’s decision on the ratification of the permanent ESM bailout fund. German Finance Minister Schaeuble has previously said that he expects the fund to be allowed by the court. That announcement will be at 08:00 GMT and could have a big impact on Euro trading.

Secondly, the European Union will outline the plans for a joint banking union during European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso’s speech at 07:00 GMT. The EU is expected to call on the European Central Bank to lead the banking supervision, as has been mentioned previously by officials.

The banking union is intended to prevent future banking crises like the one currently plaguing Spain’s Bankia group. The plan is expected to be phased in by the beginning of 2014; the banking union could be a perquisite for allowing struggling Euro-zone banks direct access to either of the bailout funds.

Also in Europe, Spanish PM Mariano Rajoy’s tone softened a little when he said earlier that he is considering requesting that the ECB purchase some of its debt as part of the plan announced at the end of last week.

In the overnight Asian session, Chinese Premiere Wen Jiabao addressed some weakness in his country’s recent economic releases by saying that the there is still room for additional monetary and fiscal measures to support growth. He said he expects China to still meet economic goals for the year. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley cut its Chinese economic growth forecast from 8% to 7.5%

However, some good news was seen in Japan, where machinery orders rose 4.6% in July, which was more than forecasted. In Australia, consumer confidence is up 1.6% in September, according to the Westpac survey.

In the North American session, it’s ‘Apple Day’ for American consumers, as the giant tech company will start a presentation at 13:00 EST that is likely to include the unveiling of the iPhone 5. The unveiling is unlikely to affect currency markets, but the Apple stock is likely to make a move following the event, which could in turn affect entire US stock indexes.

Asia Session: What Happened

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:50

JPY

Machine Orders (MoM) (JUL)

4.6%

2.0%

5.6%

23:50

JPY

Machine Orders (YoY)(JUL)

1.7%

-3.6%

-9.9%

23:50

JPY

Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (JUL)

-0.8%

-0.5%

0.2% (R+)

23:50

JPY

Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (MoM) (AUG)

0.3%

0.1%

-0.5% (R-)

23:50

JPY

Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (YoY)(AUG)

-1.8%

-1.9%

-2.2% (R-)

0:30

AUD

Westpac Consumer Confidence (SEP)

1.6%

-

-2.5%

0:30

AUD

Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (SEP)

98.2

-

96.6

1:30

AUD

Dwelling Starts (2Q)

4.6%

3.0%

-7.8% (R+)

Euro Session: What to Expect

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

7:00

EUR

EU to Announce Details of Banking Union

-

-

High

5:30

EUR

French CPI (MoM) (AUG)

0.6%

-0.4%

Medium

5:30

EUR

French CPI (YoY) (AUG)

2.0%

1.9%

Medium

5:30

EUR

French CPI Ex Tobacco Index (AUG)

125.04

124.22

Medium

5:30

EUR

French CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) (AUG)

0.6%

-0.5%

Low

5:30

EUR

French CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) (AUG)

2.3%

2.2%

Medium

6:00

EUR

German CPI (MoM) (AUG F)

0.3%

0.3%

Medium

6:00

EUR

German CPI (YoY) (AUG F)

2.0%

2.0%

High

6:00

EUR

German CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) (AUG F)

0.3%

0.3%

Medium

6:00

EUR

German CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) (AUG F)

2.2%

2.2%

High

6:45

EUR

French Current Account (€) (JUL)

-

-4.9B

Low

8:00

EUR

Italian Industrial Production sa (MoM) (JUL)

-0.4%

-1.4%

Low

8:00

EUR

Italian Industrial Production wda (YoY) (JUL)

-7.6%

-8.2%

Low

8:00

EUR

Italian Industrial Production nsa (YoY) (JUL)

-

-8.2%

Low

8:00

EUR

German Constitutional Court Announces ESM Ruling

-

-

High

8:30

GBP

Claimant Count Rate (AUG)

4.9%

4.9%

Medium

8:30

GBP

Weekly Earnings exBonus (3M/YoY) (JUL)

1.8%

1.8%

Low

8:30

GBP

Employment Change (3M/3M) (JUL)

169K

201K

Medium

8:30

GBP

Jobless Claims Change (AUG)

0.0K

-5.9K

High

8:30

GBP

Average Weekly Earnings (3M/YoY) (JUL)

1.6%

1.6%

Medium

8:30

GBP

ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) (JUL)

8.0%

8.0%

Medium

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (JUL)

-3.3%

-2.1%

Medium

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (JUL)

0.1%

-0.6%

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.3000

1.3055

GBPUSD

1.6057

1.6129

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

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