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Markets Wary of German ESM Ruling Delay

Markets Wary of German ESM Ruling Delay

Benjamin Spier, Technical Strategist

Talking Points

  • German high court considering lawmaker’s bid to delay ESM ruling
  • Japan wages fall to near-low, Azumi says he is considering new policy
  • IMF’s Zhu Min says China growth could be cut by the Euro crisis

We are now only one day away from hearing the German Federal Constitutional Court’s decision on whether to allow the ratification of the permanent ESM bailout fund. However, first the court will announce today if the ruling will be decided tomorrow as scheduled, or if they will take more time to consider German lawmaker Peter Gauweiler’s bid to delay the decision and reconsider their ruling in light of the recent unveiling of the ECB’s unlimited bond purchase plan.

Also tomorrow, the three Greek coalition party leaders will meet again following the rejection of PM Samaras’s 11.5 billion Euro spending cuts plan. The Troika must approve Greece’s austerity plan in order for the struggling country to receive the next 31 billion Euro bailout payment.

In the overnight Asian session, new currency lending in China reached 703.9 billion Yuan in August, the highest amount for the summer month on record. The increased lending could be seen as a government effort to reverse the China economic slowdown.

In Japan, nationwide compensation fell by 243.5 trillion Yen in the second quarter, which was only 0.7% higher than the two-decade low. Japanese Finance Minister Jun Azumi said that Europe, the US and China all have downside risks to their economies, and he will be watching the Japanese economy further before deciding on additional policy steps.

Finally, the IMF’s Zhu Min said there is still a long way to go in the Europe crisis, and it could hurt the Chinese economy. However, Zhu Min said the Chinese economy is on a steady path and experiencing a soft landing.

There are no major released during today’s European session, the UK trade balance for July will be announced at 08:30 GMT. An announcement by the German High Court regarding the ESM ruling could move markets today, but it’s unclear when that announcement will take place.

Asia Session: What Happened

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:45

NZD

NZ Card Spending - Retail (MoM) (AUG)

3.0%

0.8%

1.1% (R-)

22:45

NZD

NZ Card Spending (MoM) (AUG)

2.4%

1.0%

-1.4% (R-)

23:01

GBP

RICS House Price Balance (AUG)

-19%

-23%

-23% (R+)

23:50

JPY

BSI Large All Industry (QoQ) (3Q)

2.2

-

-3.1

23:50

JPY

BSI Large Manufacturing (QoQ) (3Q)

2.5

-

-5.7

23:50

JPY

Japan Money Stock M3 (YoY) (AUG)

2.1%

1.9%

1.9%

23:50

JPY

Japan Money Stock M2+CD (YoY) (AUG)

2.4%

2.3%

2.2%

0:00

NZD

QV House Prices (YoY) (AUG)

4.8%

-

4.6%

0:01

EUR

Germany Fourth Quarter Manpower Employment Outlook

6%

-

3%

0:01

CNY

China Manpower Survey (4Q)

16%

-

17%

1:00

JPY

Japan Manpower Survey (4Q)

1%

-

11%

1:30

AUD

NAB Business Conditions (AUG)

1

-

-3

1:30

AUD

NAB Business Confidence (AUG)

-2

-

3 (R-)

Euro Session: What to Expect

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

5:30

EUR

French Non Farm Payrolls (Q/Q) (2Q F)

-0.1%

-0.1%

Medium

6:00

EUR

German Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (AUG)

-

0.3%

Low

6:00

EUR

German Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (AUG)

-

2.0%

Low

6:00

JPY

Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (AUG P)

-

-6.7%

Medium

8:30

GBP

Trade Balance Non EU (£) (JUL)

-4500

-5176

Low

8:30

GBP

Total Trade Balance (£) (JUL)

-3200

-4308

Low

8:30

GBP

Visible Trade Balance (£) (JUL)

-9000

-10119

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.2747

1.2800

GBPUSD

1.5934

1.6000

--- Written by Benjamin Spier

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