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German Court Decision and Troika-Greece Meeting Set to Weigh on Markets

German Court Decision and Troika-Greece Meeting Set to Weigh on Markets

2012-09-10 06:05:00
Benjamin Spier, Technical Strategist
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Talking Points

  • Major events for this week include German High Court ESM ruling and Troika meeting in Greece
  • Chinese export growth slows and imports decline
  • Japan GDP estimate for 2Q halved

Following last week’s official announcement of ECB bond purchases, this week is also likely to provide major headlines that could affect the future of the Euro and a possible recovery from the debt crisis. In Germany, the High Court is set to present its decision on Wednesday about the legality of the permanent ESM rescue fund. German Lawmaker Gauweiler said today that he will try to delay the court’s decision because the ECB announcement fundamentally changes the situation. Gauweiler added that the central bank has become a hyper rescue fund. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said over the weekend that he expects the court to approve the ESM.

Additionally, Troika representatives are set to meet with Greek PM Samaras today. Samara’s coalition members recently refused 11.5 billion Euros of spending cuts, over worries that it would hurt Greece’s poor. The Troika are set to receive Greece’s austerity measures on Friday, which it must approve in order for Greece to receive the next 31 billion Euro bailout payment.

Both the Troika acceptance of the Greek austerity measures and the German court approval of the ESM would be seen as steps to improve the Euro and prevent the breakup of the single currency, and would therefore be Euro positive.

In the overnight Asian session, Chinese exports rose less than 3% and imports declined, as the global crisis slowed demand in China and abroad. Reports also showed a decline in industrial production and lower producer prices. The slowdown in the economic releases places pressure on Chinese Premiere Wen Jiabao to add to the stimulus program.

In Japan, the GDP growth in the second quarter was cut in half today by a revised estimate. According to the estimate, the economy grew by 0.7%. However, USDJPY did not significantly react to the lower than expected revision, the pair continues to trade slightly above 78.20.

Later this session, we will see the final estimate of the Italian GDP for 2Q and the results of the Euro-zone Sentix Investor Confidence Survey for September.

Asia Session: What Happened

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

1:30

CNY

Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG)

2.0%

2.0%

1.8%

1:30

CNY

Produce Price Index (YoY) (AUG)

-3.5%

-3.2%

-2.9%

5:30

CNY

Industrial Production (YoY) (AUG)

8.9%

9.0%

9.2%

5:30

CNY

Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (AUG)

10.1%

10.2%

10.3%

5:30

CNY

Retail Sales (YoY) (AUG)

13.2%

13.2%

13.1%

5:30

CNY

Retail Sales YTD (YoY) (AUG)

14.1%

14.1%

14.2%

5:30

CNY

Fixed Assets Inv Excl. Rural YTD (YoY) (AUG)

20.2%

20.4%

20.4%

22:45

NZD

Manufacturing Activity Volume s.a. (QoQ) (2Q)

0.3%

-

1.2% (R+)

22:45

NZD

Manufacturing Activity (2Q)

-1.1%

-

-1.5% (R+)

23:01

GBP

Lloyds Employment Confidence (AUG)

-43

-

-51

23:50

JPY

Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (2Q F)

0.2%

0.3%

0.3%

23:50

JPY

Gross Domestic Product Annualized (2Q F)

0.7%

1.0%

1.4%

23:50

JPY

Gross Domestic Product Deflator (YoY) (2Q F)

-0.9%

-1.1%

-1.1%

23:50

JPY

Nominal Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (2Q F)

-0.3%

-0.2%

-0.1%

23:50

JPY

Current Account Total (¥) (JUL)

625.4B

485.6B

433.3B

23:50

JPY

Adjusted Current Account Total (¥) (JUL)

335.4B

389.0B

773.6B

23:50

JPY

Current Account Balance (YoY) (JUL)

-40.6%

-52.0%

-19.6%

23:50

JPY

Trade Balance - BOP Basis (¥) (JUL)

-373.6B

-439.5B

112.0B

23:50

JPY

Bank Lending incl Trusts (YoY) (AUG)

0.9%

0.7%

23:50

JPY

Bank Lending ex-Trust (AUG)

1.1%

1.1%

0.9% (R-)

1:30

AUD

Investment Lending (JUL)

-2.7%

4.4% (R-)

1:30

AUD

Home Loans (JUL)

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0% (R-)

1:30

AUD

Value of Loans (MoM) (JUL)

-1.4%

-

0.9% (R-)

1:35

NZD

REINZ Housing Price Index (MoM) (AUG)

1.3%

-

-0.7%

1:35

NZD

REINZ House Sales (YoY) (AUG)

16.2%

--

19.9%

1:35

NZD

REINZ Housing Price Index (AUG) (AUG)

3420.1

3377.1

3:02

CNY

Trade Balance (USD) (AUG)

$26.66B

$19.50B

$25.15B

3:02

CNY

Exports (YoY) (AUG)

2.7%

2.9%

1.0%

3:02

CNY

Imports (YoY) (AUG)

-2.6%

3.5%

4.7%

4:30

JPY

Bankruptcies (YoY) (AUG)

-5.8%

-

-5.1%

5:00

JPY

Consumer Confidence (AUG)

40.5

39.4

39.7

6:00

JPY

Eco Watchers Survey: Current (AUG)

43.6

43.4

44.2

6:00

JPY

Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (AUG)

43.6

44.4

44.9

Euro Session: What to Expect

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

6:30

EUR

French Bank of France Bus. Sentiment (AUG)

89

90

Low

6:45

EUR

French Industrial Production (MoM) (JUL)

-0.5%

0.0%

Low

6:45

EUR

French Industrial Production (YoY) (JUL)

-3.7%

-2.3%

Low

6:45

EUR

French Manufacturing Production (MoM) (JUL)

-0.5%

0.1%

Low

6:45

EUR

French Manufacturing Production (YoY) (JUL)

-4.2%

-2.6%

Low

8:00

EUR

Italian GDP sa and wda (QoQ) (2Q F)

-0.7%

-0.7%

Medium

8:00

EUR

Italian GDP sa and wda (YoY) (2Q F)

-2.5%

-2.5%

Medium

8:30

EUR

Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence (SEP)

-30.5

-30.3

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.2678

1.2800

GBPUSD

1.5965

1.6000

--- Written by Benjamin Spier

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