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Euro Looks to EU Chatter for ECB Clues, Dollar May Rise on ISM Data

Euro Looks to EU Chatter for ECB Clues, Dollar May Rise on ISM Data

2012-09-04 08:50:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points

  • EU Policymakers’ Comments in Focus Before ECB Rate Announcement
  • Dollar May Rise if Stronger ISM Print Weighs Against Fed QE3 Outlook
  • Australian Dollar Gains as RBA Signals No Hurry to Resume Rate Cuts

A quiet economic data calendar in Europe will shift the spotlight to the speaking docket. European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso is scheduled to speak in Brussels while EU President Herman Van Rompuy meets Germany Chancellor Angela Merkel and Italy’s Premier Mario Monti sits down with French President Francois Hollande. Traders will monitor regional leaders’ remarks for clues about the possibility that the ECB is preparing to unveil details of its highly anticipated bond-buying scheme at this week’s policy announcement. Signs of progress on this front may help to boost the Euro in the near term, although ultimately the ECB seems likely to disappoint this time around.

The spotlight then turns to the ISM Manufacturing report, which is expected to show the US factory sector held up in August after activity contracted in the preceding two months. Markets are likely to interpret the result through the prism of Fed stimulus expectations after Ben Bernanke was seen as giving a nod to QE3 at the Jackson Hole Symposium last week. The Chairman didn’t give explicit guidance but laid out a case for the benefits of nonstandard policy and stressed the importance of achieving “further progress” on economic growth and job creation, adding that the Fed will provide additional help “as needed”. With that in mind, an upside surprise may weigh on risk appetite while boosting the US Dollar as hopes for accommodation fade, and vice versa.

The Australian Dollar outperformed in overnight trade after the RBA opted to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.50 percent as expected. Governor Glenn Stevens reiterated familiar rhetoric in the statement accompanying the announcement, saying that “the stance of monetary policy remain[s] appropriate” at below-average levels given a subdued international outlook despite growth tracking close to trend and inflation close to target. The remarks suggested the RBA remained in wait-and-see mode, with policymakers in no hurry to resume interest rate cuts.

Asia Session: What Happened

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:01

GBP

BRC Sales Like-For-Like (YoY) (AUG)

-0.4%

-0.5%

0.1%

23:50

JPY

Monetary Base (YoY) (AUG)

6.5%

-

8.6%

1:00

NZD

ANZ Commodity Price (AUG)

0.5%

-

-0.4% (R+)

1:30

JPY

Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (JUL)

-1.2%

-0.5%

-0.4% (R+)

1:30

AUD

Current Account Balance (A$) (2Q)

-11.8B

-12.2B

-12.9B (R+)

1:30

AUD

Net Exports of GDP (2Q)

0.3%

0.6%

-0.5%

4:30

AUD

RBA Interest Rate Decision (SEP 4)

3.50%

3.50%

3.50%

Euro Session: What to Expect

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

5:45

CHF

Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (2Q)

-0.1% (A)

0.5%

Medium

5:45

CHF

Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (2Q)

0.5% (A)

1.2%

Medium

8:30

GBP

Purchasing Manager Index Construction (AUG)

49.0 (A)

50.9

Medium

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (MoM) (JUL)

0.2%

-0.5%

Low

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) (JUL)

1.6%

1.8%

Low

9:00

EUR

EC Pres. Barroso Speaks in Brussels

-

-

Medium

10:30

EUR

EU Pres. Van Rompuy Meets Germany’s Merkel

-

-

Medium

13:15

EUR

France’s Hollande, Italy’s Monti Hold Press Conf.

-

-

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.2563

1.2641

GBPUSD

1.5858

1.5927

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

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