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Australian Dollar Sold as Chinese Manufacturing Activity Stagnates

Australian Dollar Sold as Chinese Manufacturing Activity Stagnates

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points

  • Australian Dollar Sold on Unexpected Slump in Chinese Manufacturing
  • Eurozone PMI Revisions Headline Quiet European Economic Calendar

The Australian Dollar underperformed in overnight, down as much as 0.7 percent against its top counterparts, after Chinese Manufacturing PMI data showed factory-sector activity unexpectedly shrank in August. The official reading released on Saturday revealed the index fell to 49.2, the lowest in nine months. A print below “50” implies contraction. The bulk of the decline came from a slump in raw-materials inventories, pointing to ebbing demand for Australia’s key export commodities. The country counts on China as its top trading partner and owes much the mining boom keeping the economy afloat to sales to the East Asian giant.

The economic calendar is relatively quiet in European hours and price action is likely to prove somewhat muted with US financial markets absent for the Labor Day holiday. Final revisions of Augusts’ Eurozone Manufacturing PMI figures are on tap but their market-moving potential seems limited. Indeed, after twelve consecutive months of retrenchment, continued bad news has probably lost some of its punch. Implications for ECB monetary policy outlook likewise seem limited, further denting the potential for significant volatility, as traders remain preoccupied with the possible emergence of the central bank’s bond-buying later in the week.

Asia Session: What Happened

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:45

NZD

Terms of Trade Index (QoQ) (2Q)

-2.6%

-2.0%

-2.3%

23:01

GBP

Lloyds Business Barometer (AUG)

10

-

-8

23:30

AUD

AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index (AUG)

45.3

-

40.3

23:50

JPY

Capital Spending (2Q)

7.7%

8.9%

3.3%

23:50

JPY

Capital Spending excl Software (2Q)

6.6%

7.8%

3.5%

0:00

AUD

RPData-Rismark House PX Actual (AUG)

0.0%

-

0.6%

0:30

AUD

TD Securities Inflation (MoM) (AUG)

0.6%

-

0.2%

0:30

AUD

TD Securities Inflation (YoY) (AUG)

2.2%

-

1.5%

1:00

CNY

Non-manufacturing PMI (AUG)

56.3

-

55.6

1:30

AUD

Company Operating Profit (QoQ) (2Q)

-0.7%

1.0%

-3.7% (R+)

1:30

AUD

Inventories (2Q)

0.6%

0.2%

1.3% (R+)

1:30

AUD

Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (JUL)

-0.8%

0.2%

1.2% (R+)

1:30

AUD

ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (AUG)

-2.3%

-

-0.8%

2:30

CNY

HSBC Manufacturing PMI (AUG)

47.6

-

49.3

5:00

JPY

Vehicle Sales (YoY) (AUG)

7.3%

-

36.1%

6:30

AUD

RBA Commodity Price Index (AUG)

90.3

-

94.4 (R-)

6:30

AUD

RBA Commodity Index SDR (YoY) (AUG)

-13.7%

-

-9.8%

Euro Session: What to Expect

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

7:15

CHF

Retail Sales - Real (YoY) (JUL)

-

3.7%

Medium

7:30

CHF

SVME-Purchasing Managers Index (AUG)

49.1

48.6

Medium

7:45

EUR

Italian PMI Manufacturing (AUG)

45.0

44.3

Low

7:50

EUR

French PMI Manufacturing (AUG F)

46.2

46.2

Low

7:55

EUR

German PMI Manufacturing (AUG F)

45.1

45.1

Medium

8:00

EUR

Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing (AUG F)

45.3

45.3

Medium

8:30

GBP

PMI Manufacturing (AUG)

46.1

45.4

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.2503

1.2647

GBPUSD

1.5798

1.5916

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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