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Markets to Look Past European Event Risk to Focus on US Data Docket

Markets to Look Past European Event Risk to Focus on US Data Docket

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points

  • German CPI, Monti/Merkel Meeting Unlikely to See Strong Response from Price Action
  • Dollar May Rise vs. Risk-Linked FX if US GDP Revision, Fed Beige Book Dent QE3 Hopes

The preliminary set of Augusts’ German CPI figures headlines a relatively tame European economic calendar. Expectations call for the benchmark inflation rate to rise to 1.9 percent, marking the highest reading in three months. On balance, the outcome is unlikely to prove meaningfully market-moving considering its limited implications for the ECB monetary policy outlook, where traders remain preoccupied with the bank’s new bond-buying program and the possibility that it might be (at least partially) unveiled at next week’s meeting.

Separately, Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti is scheduled to meet with German Chancellor Angela Merkel. At the sit-down, Monti is expected to push for German support of the aforementioned ECB bond-buying scheme to lower borrowing costs in debt-strapped nations, including Italy. Traders will parse sideline commentary as well as the news conference following the meeting for clues on the direction of EU crisis management policy. Announcements of any concrete measures are unlikely however, meaning the outing is unlikely to yield a lasting impact on price action.

The spotlight is likely to quickly shift toward the North American data docket, where revised second-quarter USGDP figures and the Fed’s Beige Book of regional economic conditions are due to come across the wires. Expectations see output revised slightly higher to show the economy grew at an annual pace of 1.7 percent in the three months through June compared with the originally reported 1.5 percent result. Reinforcement by way of a firmer tone to the Beige Book may underscore the recent improvement in US economic data and counter-intuitively weigh on risk appetite (and correlated currencies) by denting hopes for additional stimulus ahead of Ben Bernanke’s much-anticipated speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday.

Asia Session: What Happened

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

1:30

AUD

Construction Work Done (2Q)

-0.2%

0.5%

5.5%

Euro Session: What to Expect

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

6:45

EUR

French Business Confidence Indicator (AUG)

90 (A)

89

Low

6:45

EUR

French Own-Company Production Outlook (AUG)

-6 (A)

-8

Low

6:45

EUR

French Production Outlook Indicator (AUG)

-44 (A)

-45

Low

7:00

CHF

KOF Swiss Leading Indicator (AUG)

1.57 (A)

1.41

Medium

8:00

EUR

Italian Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (JUN)

0.4% (A)

0.1%

Low

8:00

EUR

Italian Retail Sales (YoY) (JUN)

-0.5% (A)

-1.7%

Low

9:00

EUR

Italian Consumer Confidence Indicator (MoM) (AUG)

86

86.5

Low

12:00

EUR

German CPI (MoM) (AUG P)

0.2%

0.4%

High

12:00

EUR

German CPI (YoY) (AUG P)

1.9%

1.7%

High

12:00

EUR

German CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) (AUG P)

0.1%

0.4%

Medium

12:00

EUR

German CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) (AUG P)

2.0%

1.9%

Medium

12:15

EUR

Italy’s Monti, Germany’s Merkel Meet in Berlin

-

-

Critical Levels

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.2495

1.2606

GBPUSD

1.5771

1.5852

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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