News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Entry orders are a valuable tool in forex trading. Traders can strategize to come up with a great trading plan, but if they can’t execute that plan effectively, all their hard work might as well be thrown out. Learn how to place entry orders here: https://t.co/lAFyv1gM0P https://t.co/ubLimoYAcr
  • What is the outlook for financial markets ahead of the first presidential debate and how are Democratic nominee Joe Biden and President Donald Trump doing in the polls? Find out from @ZabelinDimitri here:https://t.co/QQwAZTxZFg https://t.co/4cRhRCiv3C
  • The US Dollar could gain as it forms bullish technical formations against the Singapore Dollar and Malaysian Ringgit. USD/PHP may have bottomed, will USD/IDR rise next? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/3UIKmbLIvD https://t.co/PY2YyH4vkQ
  • The Indian Rupee may be at risk to the US Dollar as USD/INR attempts to refocus to the upside. This is as the Nifty 50, India’s benchmark stock index, could fall further. Get your $USDINR market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/3wsYlSxd26 https://t.co/z2qB9p8IgX
  • A proxy of #EmergingMarket capital flows hit its lowest since July, falling with the #SP500 after some divergence This is as #USD gained against its developing FX counterparts, highlighting potential risk of a spillover outwards Stay tuned for next week's #ASEAN fundy outlook! https://t.co/kAvpnb0EXO
  • 4 consecutive down weeks for the #SP500, last matched over a year ago #Fed balance sheet continues to gain very cautiously, now at its highest since the middle of June. Still, at slower pace than last week Focus shifts to US fiscal stimulus next week in the House of Reps https://t.co/f8zpSILm86
  • #Gold prices have broken lower and while the broader technical structure is constructive, the risk remains for a deeper correction before resumption. Get your $XAUUSD technical analysis from @MBForex here: https://t.co/7p3jPx6nQd https://t.co/nnCSdt6OV5
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇬🇧GBP: 0.00% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.02% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.15% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.23% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.25% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.33% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/O8Qb7OHZza
  • Commodities Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: -0.30% Gold: -0.33% Silver: -0.92% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/lEALo4Z1M9
  • The S&P 500 breakdown is testing the first major zone of support and we’re looking for a reaction. Get your S&P500 technical analysis from @MBForex here:https://t.co/JrTNmQ5c7g https://t.co/D79T1134P9
Euro at Risk as French and German Finance Ministers Meet, Aussie Sold

Euro at Risk as French and German Finance Ministers Meet, Aussie Sold

2012-08-27 07:12:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
Share:

Talking Points

  • Euro at Risk Amid Continued Dithering as French, German FinMins Meet
  • German IFO Drop Unlikely to Produce Lasting Reaction from FX Markets
  • Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey May Dent QE3 Hopes, Boost US Dollar

The US Dollar consolidated against most of its top counterparts as an absence of big-ticket catalysts left currency markets in consolidation mode. The Australian Dollar narrowly underperformed as year-to-date Chinese Industrial Profits fell at an annual pace of 2.7 percent, marking the sharpest contraction in five months. The outcome stoked fears about fading Chinese demand for Australian exports, the key driver behind the mining boom that has kept the country’s economy relatively well-supported through the 2008 crisis and its aftermath.

Looking ahead, a meeting between the German and French Finance Ministers (Wolfgang Schauble and Pierre Moscovici, respectively) is in focus. The two are expected to discuss goals for Greece’s debt-reduction efforts, but concrete progress seems unlikely. Indeed, Eurogroup leader Jean-Claude Junker and German Chancellor Angela Merkel both signaled that any decision on extending the deadline for Athens to complete its austerity efforts will have to wait until inspectors from the EU/ECB/IMF “troika” complete their assessment of Greece’s progress.

With that in mind, the lack of action itself may prove to weigh on the Euro. Anticlimactic developments late last week revealed investors’ frustration with a lack of directional cues – whether positive or negative – from Eurozone officials. Markets may be approaching a juncture where price action forces policy once again, with selling pressure emerging amid signs of continued dithering.

On the data front, the German IFO gauge of business confidence is in focus. Expectations call for the headline Business Climate reading to drop to 102.7, the lowest since March 2010. The outcome seems unlikely to produce a lasting impact on the Euro in and of itself considering its limited implications for ECB monetary policy, where traders remain preoccupied with the details of the central bank’s opaque bond-buying scheme.

Later in the session, the spotlight shifts to the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Surveyas traders set the backdrop for Friday’s much-anticipated speech from Ben Bernanke at the Jackson Hole central bank symposium, which many hope will bring an announcement of QE3. Expectations call for a narrow improvement in August after the metric hit a 10-month low in July. Such a result may turn the markets’ attention to the recent improvement in US economic data, denting stimulus bets and boosting the greenback.

Asia Session: What Happened

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:01

GBP

Hometrack Housing Survey (MoM) (AUG)

-0.1%

-

-0.1%

23:01

GBP

Hometrack Housing Survey (YoY) (AUG)

-0.5%

-

-0.5%

1:30

CNY

Industrial Profits YTD (YoY) (JUL)

-2.7%

-

-2.2%

Euro Session: What to Expect

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

-

EUR

French, German Finance Ministers Meet

-

-

Medium

6:00

EUR

German Import Price Index (YoY) (JUL)

1.2% (A)

1.3%

Low

6:00

EUR

German Import Price Index (MoM) (JUL)

0.7% (A)

-1.5%

Low

8:00

EUR

German IFO – Business Climate (AUG)

102.7

103.3

Medium

8:00

EUR

German IFO – Current Assessment (AUG)

110.8

111.6

Medium

8:00

EUR

German IFO – Expectations (AUG)

95.0

95.6

Medium

9:30

EUR

Germany to Sell €3B in 12mo Bills

-

-

Low

13:00

EUR

France to Sell €7B in 3-, 6- and 12-mo Bills

-

-

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.2435

1.2559

GBPUSD

1.5761

1.5852

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES