Talking Points
- US Dollar Selling Continues in Asia as FOMC Minutes Feed QE3 Outlook
- Australian Dollar Lags Comm Bloc Counterparts on Soft Chinese PMI Data
- Eurozone PMIs in Focus as the Next Key Inflection Point for Risk Trends
The US Dollar continued to edge lower against its top counterparts in overnight trade, extending a selloff sparked in the wake of minutes from Augusts’ Federal Reserve policy meeting. The report showed that many FOMC members thought additional easing would “likely be warranted fairly soon” unlessincoming data point to a “substantial and sustainable” strengthening in the economic recovery.
The remarks stoked hopes that additional stimulus would boost US demand for Asian exports, sending an MSCI benchmark gauge of regional stock performance 0.8 percent higher. The risk-sensitive commodity bloc currencies outperformed but the Australian Dollar lagged behind its counterparts after the HSBC Chinese Manufacturing PMI measure dropped to 47.8 in August, showing factory-sector activity shrank at the fastest pace since November 2011. China is Australia’s top export market and key source of demand driving its mining-sector boom.
Looking ahead, the spotlight turns to the preliminary set of Augusts’ Eurozone PMI figures. Another print below the 50 “boom-bust” level on the region-wide measure is expected to show manufacturing- and service-sector activity shriveled for the seventh consecutive month, though the pace of contraction remained unchanged from July.
The deep slump in Eurozone economic growth represents the most significant headwind facing global output this year. With that in mind, any signs of stabilization perceptible from the PMI data set are likely to boost risk appetite and compound downward pressure on the US Dollar. Needless to say, disappointing results have scope to dent sentiment and offer the greenback a lifeline as haven demand returns.
Asia Session: What Happened
|
GMT |
CCY |
EVENT |
ACT |
EXP |
PREV |
|
2:00 |
CNY |
Conference Board Leading Index (JUL) |
236.4 |
- |
234.8 |
|
2:30 |
CNY |
HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (AUG) |
47.8 |
- |
49.3 |
Euro Session: What to Expect
|
GMT |
CCY |
EVENT |
EXP |
PREV |
IMPACT |
|
6:00 |
Trade Balance (CHF) (JUL) |
2.19B |
Medium |
||
|
6:00 |
Exports (MoM) (JUL) |
0.5% |
-2.6% |
Low |
|
|
6:00 |
Imports (MoM) (JUL) |
- |
-3.1% |
Low |
|
|
6:00 |
German GDP s.a. (QoQ) (2Q F) |
0.3% |
0.3% |
Medium |
|
|
6:00 |
German GDP n.s.a. (YoY) (2Q F) |
0.5% |
0.5% |
Medium |
|
|
6:00 |
German GDP w.d.a. (YoY) (2Q F) |
1.0% |
1.0% |
Medium |
|
|
6:00 |
German Imports (2Q) |
1.0% |
0.0% |
Low |
|
|
6:00 |
German Exports (2Q) |
1.2% |
1.7% |
Low |
|
|
6:00 |
German Domestic Demand (2Q) |
- |
-0.3% |
Low |
|
|
6:00 |
German Capital Investment (2Q) |
-1.5% |
-1.1% |
Low |
|
|
6:00 |
German Construction Investment (2Q) |
2.0% |
-1.3% |
Low |
|
|
6:00 |
German Private Consumption (2Q) |
0.2% |
0.4% |
Low |
|
|
6:00 |
German Government Spending (2Q) |
0.2% |
0.2% |
Low |
|
|
7:00 |
French PMI Manufacturing (AUG P) |
43.7 |
43.4 |
Medium |
|
|
7:00 |
French PMI Services (AUG P) |
50.0 |
50.0 |
Medium |
|
|
7:30 |
German PMI Manufacturing (AUG A) |
43.4 |
43.0 |
High |
|
|
7:30 |
German PMI Services (AUG A) |
50.1 |
50.3 |
High |
|
|
8:00 |
Euro-Zone PMI Composite (AUG A) |
46.5 |
46.5 |
High |
|
|
8:00 |
Euro-Zone PMI Services (AUG A) |
47.7 |
47.9 |
High |
|
|
8:00 |
Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing (AUG A) |
44.2 |
44.0 |
High |
|
|
8:30 |
BBA Loans for House Purchase (JUL) |
27250 |
26269 |
Low |
|
|
10:00 |
CBI Reported Sales (AUG) |
16 |
11 |
Low |
Critical Levels
|
CCY |
SUPPORT |
RESISTANCE |
|
1.2461 |
1.2606 |
|
|
1.5805 |
1.5958 |
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com
To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak
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