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Euro, Stocks-Linked Currencies Vulnerable to Soft Eurozone GDP Print

Euro, Stocks-Linked Currencies Vulnerable to Soft Eurozone GDP Print

2012-08-14 05:45:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points

  • All Eyes on Eurozone 2Q GDP Report to Shape Risk Appetite Trends
  • Markets to Read Economic News Directly, Not in Terms of Stimulus
  • US Retail Sales Expected to Yield Strongest Outcome in Four Months

A busy calendar of economic data promises to finally nudge financial markets out of complacency. Second-quarterEurozone GDP figures headline the docket. While softer readings compared with the first quarter will not be surprising – indeed, a recession in the region is readily accepted as consensus view across financial markets at this point – the degree of downturn will be important to monitor and may prove market-moving. As we discussed in our weekly fundamental briefing, outcomes that fall short of expectations are likely to be read as negative for risk appetite, weighing on the Euro as well as stocks-linked currencies.

Separately, the German ZEW gauge of investor confidence is expected to drop to the lowest since July 2010 at 17.5 in August. The forward-looking Economic Sentiment sub-index is expected to print at -19.3, within a hair of the six-month low of -19.6 recorded in July. Meanwhile, UK CPI is set to put the annual inflation rate at the lowest since November 2009 at 2.3 percent. On balance, both outcomes are unlikely to prove particularly market-moving, the former overshadowed by GDP data and the latter made largely moot by firmly anchored Bank of England monetary policy expectations.

Later in the session, the spotlight shifts to July’s US Retail Sales report. The reading will help establish the degree of follow-through on the stronger-than-expected jobs growth figures published earlier this month. Economists’ forecasts suggest receipts will add 0.3 percent, marking the strongest reading in four months. On the sentiment front, S&P 500 stock index futures are pointing cautiously higher to warn that safe-haven US Dollar and Japanese Yen may find themselves under pressure against their top counterparts. The critical mass of top-tier event risk on the docket may rapidly change the landscape in the hours ahead however.

Asia Session: What Happened

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:45

NZD

Retail Sales Ex Inflation (QoQ) (2Q)

1.3%

0.7%

-0.6%

23:01

GBP

RICS House Price Balance (JUL)

-24%

-23%

-22%

23:50

JPY

Bank of Japan July Meeting Minutes

-

-

-

23:50

JPY

Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (JUN)

0.1%

-0.3%

0.7%

1:30

AUD

New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) (JUL)

-0.8%

-

-1.0% (R-)

1:30

AUD

New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) (JUL)

5.0%

-

18.1% (R-)

1:30

AUD

NAB Business Conditions (JUL)

-3

-

-1

1:30

AUD

NAB Business Confidence (JUL)

4

-

-3

3:00

NZD

Non Resident Bond Holdings (JUL)

62.8%

-

62.0%

Euro Session: What to Expect

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

5:30

EUR

French CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) (JUL)

-0.5%

0.1%

Low

5:30

EUR

French CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) (JUL)

2.3%

2.3%

Low

5:30

EUR

French Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JUL)

-0.4%

0.0%

Low

5:30

EUR

French Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUL)

2.0%

1.9%

Low

5:30

EUR

French CPI Ex Tobacco Index (JUL)

124.2

124.78

Low

5:30

EUR

French GDP (QoQ) (2Q P)

-0.1%

0.0%

Medium

5:30

EUR

French GDP (YoY) (2Q P)

0.2%

0.3%

Medium

6:00

EUR

German GDP n.s.a. (YoY) (2Q P)

0.9%

1.7%

High

6:00

EUR

German GDP s.a. (QoQ) (2Q P)

0.2%

0.5%

High

6:00

EUR

German GDP w.d.a. (YoY) (2Q P)

1.1%

1.2%

High

6:45

EUR

French Wages (QoQ) (2Q P)

-

0.9%

Low

6:45

EUR

French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) (2Q P)

-0.1%

0.1%

Low

7:15

CHF

Producer & Import Prices (MoM) (JUL)

-0.2%

-0.3%

Low

7:15

CHF

Producer & Import Prices (YoY) (JUL)

-1.7%

-2.2%

Low

8:30

GBP

DCLG UK House Prices (YoY) (JUN)

1.5%

2.3%

Low

8:30

GBP

Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JUL)

-0.1%

-0.4%

Medium

8:30

GBP

Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUL)

2.3%

2.4%

High

8:30

GBP

Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUL)

2.1%

2.1%

Medium

8:30

GBP

Retail Price Index (JUL)

241.4

241.8

Low

8:30

GBP

Retail Price Index (MoM) (JUL)

-0.2%

-0.2%

Low

8:30

GBP

Retail Price Index (YoY) (JUL)

2.8%

2.8%

Low

8:30

GBP

RPI ex Mort Int. Payments (YoY) (JUL)

2.9%

2.8%

Low

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ) (2Q A)

-0.2%

0.0%

High

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (YoY) (2Q A)

-0.4%

-0.1%

High

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (JUN)

-2.1%

-2.6%

Medium

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (JUN)

-0.7%

0.9%

Medium

9:00

EUR

German ZEW Survey (Curr. Situation) (AUG)

17.5

21.1

High

9:00

EUR

German ZEW Survey (Econ. Sentiment) (AUG)

-19.3

-19.6

High

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone ZEW Survey (Econ. Sentiment) (AUG)

-

-22.3

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.2271

1.2434

GBPUSD

1.5655

1.5715

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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