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Euro Debt Crisis in Focus as Markets Await ECB Monthly Report

Euro Debt Crisis in Focus as Markets Await ECB Monthly Report

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points

  • ECB Monthly Report in Focus as Traders Ponder Crisis-Fighting Measures
  • Dollar, Yen Decline as Soft Chinese Data Set Stokes PBOC Stimulus Hopes
  • Australian Dollar Outperforms on Jobs Gain, BOJ Keeps Policy on Hold

Augusts’ ECB Monthly Reportis in focus in European trading hours. ECB President Mario Draghi started planting the seeds for the unveiling of a new fundingstress-relief effort. The central bank chief first brought runaway bond yields into the ECB mandate with a speech in London two weeks ago and then alluded to “non-standard policy measures” to be hashed out in the “coming weeks” at the monthly press conference last week.

A possible bailout request from Spain – the largest such effort to date – hinges on the as-yet absent details of the program. Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said in a press conference last Friday that he would condition asking for help on the ECB’s measures. With stakes running high, traders will look to the monthly report for guidance, hoping some of the operational details of the ECB’s new initiatives will emerge.

The US Dollar and Japanese Yen declined overnight as stocks advanced overnight, dampening demand for the go-to haven currencies. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark equities index added 0.8 percent after Chinese CPI figures showed inflation slowed to 1.8 percent, the weakest since January 2010. The outcome drove hopes that Beijing will have space to press forward with stimulus measures to underpin growth in the world’s second-largest economy.

Disappointing Industrial Production and Retail Sales figures reinforced expectations for forthcoming accommodation. The Australian Dollar outperformed, with the risk-on mood compounded by narrowly better-than-forecast Employment figures. The Bank of Japan opted to keep monetary policy unchanged, as expected.

Asia Session: What Happened

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:45

NZD

Unemployment Rate (2Q)

6.8%

6.5%

6.7%

22:45

NZD

Employment Change (QoQ) (2Q)

-0.0%

0.4%

0.4%

22:45

NZD

Employment Change (YoY) (2Q)

0.6%

1.2%

0.9%

22:45

NZD

Participation Rate (QoQ) (2Q)

68.4%

68.6%

68.7% (R-)

23:50

JPY

Japan Money Stock M2+CD (YoY) (JUL)

2.2%

2.2%

2.2%

23:50

JPY

Japan Money Stock M3 (YoY) (JUL)

1.9%

1.9%

1.9% (R-)

23:50

JPY

Machine Orders (MoM) (JUN)

5.6%

12.0%

-14.8%

23:50

JPY

Machine Orders (YoY) (JUN)

-9.9%

-4.5%

1.0%

23:50

JPY

Housing Loans (YoY) (2Q)

2.7%

-

2.4%

0:00

NZD

QV House Prices (YoY) (JUL)

4.6%

-

4.2%

1:00

NZD

ANZ Consumer Confidence Index (AUG)

114.1

-

110.5

1:00

NZD

ANZ Consumer Confidence (MoM) (AUG)

3.3%

-

4.4%

1:30

AUD

Employment Change (JUL)

14.0K

10.0K

-28.3K (R-)

1:30

AUD

Unemployment Rate (JUL)

5.2%

5.3%

5.3% (R-)

1:30

AUD

Part Time Employment Change (JUL)

4.8K

-

6.5K (R-)

1:30

AUD

Full Time Employment Change (JUL)

9.2K

-

-34.8K (R-)

1:30

AUD

Participation Rate (JUL)

65.2%

65.3%

65.3% (R+)

1:30

CNY

Producer Price Index (YoY) (JUL)

-2.9%

-2.5%

-2.1%

1:30

CNY

Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUL)

1.8%

1.7%

2.2%

2:00

JPY

Tokyo Avg Office Vacancies (%) (JUL)

9.3

-

9.43

3:22

JPY

Bank of Japan Rate Decision (AUG 9)

0.10%

0.10%

0.10%

4:00

NZD

REINZ House Sales (YoY) (JUL)

19.9%

-

17.3%

4:00

NZD

REINZ Housing Price Index (MoM) (JUL)

-0.7%

-

-0.3%

4:00

NZD

REINZ Housing Price Index (JUL)

3377.1

-

3400.8

5:00

JPY

Consumer Confidence (JUL)

39.7

40.0

40.4

5:30

CNY

Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (JUL)

10.3%

10.4%

10.5%

5:30

CNY

Industrial Production (YoY) (JUL)

9.2%

9.7%

9.5%

5:30

CNY

Fixed Assets Inv Excl. Rural YTD (YoY) (JUL)

20.4%

20.6%

20.4%

5:30

CNY

Retail Sales YTD (YoY) (JUN)

14.2%

14.3%

14.4%

5:30

CNY

Retail Sales (YoY) (JUL)

13.1%

13.5%

13.7%

6:00

JPY

Machine Tool Orders (YoY)

-

-

-15.5%

Euro Session: What to Expect

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

8:00

EUR

ECB Publishes Monthly Report (AUG)

-

-

High

8:00

EUR

Italian Trade Balance (Total) (€) (JUN)

-

1008M

Low

8:00

EUR

Italian Trade Balance EU (€) (JUN)

-

691M

Low

8:30

GBP

Visible Trade Balance (£) (JUN)

-8725

-8363

Medium

8:30

GBP

Total Trade Balance (£) (JUN)

-3100

-2717

Medium

8:30

GBP

Trade Balance Non EU (£) (JUN)

-4100

-3865

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.2327

1.2403

GBPUSD

1.5594

1.5739

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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