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Pound May Fall as Dovish BOE Inflation Report Stokes QE Outlook

Pound May Fall as Dovish BOE Inflation Report Stokes QE Outlook

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points

  • Dovish BOE Inflation Report May Stoke QE Bets, Weigh on Pound
  • NZ Dollar Sinks for Second Day After PM Key Warns on Rate Cuts

All eyes are on the quarterly Bank of England inflation report. Traders will look to the outcome to shape expectations of BOE monetary policy in the months ahead. On balance, near-term policy prescriptions are likely to be relatively thin as Mervyn King and company remain in wait-and-see mode to gauge the impact of the recently unveiled ECTR and FLS programs before tinkering with new ideas.

The deterioration in UK economic data since the last report is likely to skew the tone toward the dovish side of the policy spectrum. This may weigh on the British Pound as markets build expectations of another expansion of QE after the current round of purchases runs its course in October.

The Japanese Yen corrected higher overnight after yesterday’s broad selloff. The New Zealand Dollar continued to underperform for second day in the wake of strong comments from Prime Minister John Key. The former global head of FX for Merrill Lynch said the economy would “probably stop” if the Kiwi got too strong, adding that the RBNZ has scope to lower interest rates.

Asia Session: What Happened

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:50

JPY

Current Account Total (¥) (JUN)

433.3B

415.4B

215.1B

23:50

JPY

Adjusted Current Account Total (¥) (JUN)

773.6B

714.7B

282.2B

23:50

JPY

Trade Balance - BOP Basis (¥) (JUN)

112.0B

114.9B

-848.2B

23:50

JPY

Bank Lending Banks ex-Trust (JUL)

1.0%

0.8%

0.8%

23:50

JPY

Bank Lending incl Trusts (YoY) (JUL)

0.7%

-

0.6% (R-)

23:50

JPY

Current Account Balance (YoY) (JUN)

-19.6%

-24.9%

-62.6%

1:30

AUD

Home Loans (JUN)

1.3%

2.0%

-0.9% (R+)

1:30

AUD

Investment Lending (JUN)

4.9%

-

-4.5% (R+)

1:30

AUD

Value of Loans (MoM) (JUN)

1.2%

-

0.4% (R+)

4:30

JPY

Bankruptcies (YoY) (JUL)

-5.1%

-

-16.3%

5:00

JPY

Eco Watchers Survey: Current (JUL)

44.2

43.2

43.8

5:00

JPY

Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (JUL)

44.9

44

45.7

Euro Session: What to Expect

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

5:45

CHF

SECO Consumer Confidence (JUL)

-17 (A)

-8

Medium

6:00

EUR

German Imports s.a. (MoM) (JUN)

-3.0% (A)

6.2%

Low

6:00

EUR

German Exports s.a. (MoM) (JUN)

-1.5% (A)

4.2%

Low

6:00

EUR

German Trade Balance (€) (JUN)

17.9B (A)

15.6B

Medium

6:00

EUR

German Current Account (€) (JUN)

16.5B (A)

8.1B

Low

6:30

AUD

Foreign Reserves (A$) (JUL)

46.8B (A)

47.2B

Low

6:30

EUR

Bank of France Business Sentiment (JUL)

90 (A)

91

Low

6:45

EUR

French Trade Balance (€) (JUN)

-5990M (A)

-5471M

Low

9:30

GBP

Bank of England Inflation Report

-

-

High

10:00

EUR

German Industrial Production (MoM) (JUN)

-0.8%

1.6%

Medium

10:00

EUR

German Industrial Production (YoY) (JUN)

0.3%

0.0%

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.2274

1.2435

GBPUSD

1.5503

1.5682

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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