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US Dollar at Risk as Stock Futures Hint at Ebbing Haven Demand

US Dollar at Risk as Stock Futures Hint at Ebbing Haven Demand

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points

  • US Dollar May Weaken as S&P 500 Futures Point to Risk-on Mood
  • Euro Unlikely to Find Volatility in German Jobs, Eurozone CPI Data

The US Dollar was little changed against its top counterparts as traders shied away from committing to a firm directional bias in the absence of major market-moving event risk. S&P 500 stock index futures are pointing higher, hinting the greenback may find itself on the defensive as haven demand dries up.

German Unemployment and Eurozone CPI figures headline the calendar in European hours. The former report is expected to show the economy shed 7,000 jobs for a second consecutive month in July, keeping the Unemployment Rate at 6.8 percent. Meanwhile, the latter is forecast to keep the benchmark inflation rate at 2.4 percent, also unchanged from the previous month.

Barring wild deviations from expectations, neither seems to present much in terms of market-moving potential as investors wait for the ECB monetary policy announcement later in the week. Traders are pricing in an 82.5 percent probability of another 25bps rate cut, so risks appear skewed to the upside in the event that data outperforms and forces traders to reposition for reduced bets on further easing.

Asia Session: What Happened

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:01

GBP

GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (JUL)

-29

-29

-29

23:15

JPY

Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI (JUL)

47.9

-

49.9

23:30

JPY

Jobless Rate (JUN)

4.3%

4.4%

4.4%

23:30

JPY

Job-To-Applicant Ratio (JUN)

0.82

0.82

0.81

23:30

JPY

Household Spending (YoY) (JUN)

1.6%

2.9%

4.0%

23:50

JPY

Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (JUN)

0.1%

-

-0.53%

1:00

NZD

NBNZ Activity Outlook (JUL)

24

-

20.8

1:00

NZD

NBNZ Business Confidence (JUL)

15.1

-

12.6

1:30

JPY

Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (JUN)

-0.6%

0.0%

-1.1% (R-)

1:30

AUD

Private Sector Credit (MoM) (JUN)

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

1:30

AUD

Private Sector Credit (YoY) (JUN)

4.4%

4.4%

4.0%

1:30

AUD

Building Approvals (MoM) (JUN)

-2.5%

-15.0%

27.0% (R-)

1:30

AUD

Building Approvals (YoY) (JUN)

10.2%

-5.5%

9.1% (R-)

3:00

NZD

Money Supply M3 (YoY) (JUN)

5.7%

-

6.3%

5:00

JPY

Annualized Housing Starts (JUN)

0.837M

0.916M

0.903M

5:00

JPY

Construction Orders (YoY) (JUN)

4.6%

-

-0.9%

5:00

JPY

Housing Starts (YoY) (JUN)

-0.2%

9.4%

9.3%

Euro Session: What to Expect

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

6:00

EUR

German Retail Sales (MoM) (JUN)

0.5%

-0.3%

Medium

6:00

EUR

German Retail Sales (YoY) (JUN)

0.4%

-1.1%

Medium

6:00

CHF

UBS Consumption Indicator (JUN)

-

1.05

Low

6:45

EUR

French Consumer Spending (MoM) (JUN)

0.2%

0.4%

Low

6:45

EUR

French Consumer Spending (YoY) (JUN)

0.4%

0.6%

Low

6:45

EUR

French Producer Prices (MoM) (JUN)

-0.3%

-1.0%

Low

6:45

EUR

French Producer Prices (YoY) (JUN)

2.1%

2.2%

Low

7:55

EUR

German Unemployment Change (JUL)

7K

7K

High

7:55

EUR

German Unemployment Rate s.a. (JUL)

6.8%

6.8%

Medium

8:00

EUR

Italian Unemployment Rate s.a. (JUN P)

10.3%

10.1%

Low

9:00

EUR

Italian CPI – EU Harmonized (MoM) (JUL P)

-1.7%

0.2%

Low

9:00

EUR

Italian CPI – EU Harmonized (YoY) (JUL P)

3.6%

3.6%

Low

9:00

EUR

Italian PPI (MoM) (JUN)

-0.2%

-0.3%

Low

9:00

EUR

Italian PPI (YoY) (JUN)

2.0%

2.3%

Low

9:00

EUR

Italian CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) (MoM) (JUL P)

0.2%

0.2%

Low

9:00

EUR

Italian CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) (YoY) (JUL P)

3.2%

3.3%

Low

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (JUN)

11.2%

11.1%

Medium

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone CPI Estimate (YoY) (JUL)

2.4%

2.4%

High

Critical Levels

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.2209

1.2327

GBPUSD

1.5630

1.5753

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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