Talking Points
- US Dollar May Weaken as S&P 500 Futures Point to Risk-on Mood
- Euro Unlikely to Find Volatility in German Jobs, Eurozone CPI Data
The US Dollar was little changed against its top counterparts as traders shied away from committing to a firm directional bias in the absence of major market-moving event risk. S&P 500 stock index futures are pointing higher, hinting the greenback may find itself on the defensive as haven demand dries up.
German Unemployment and Eurozone CPI figures headline the calendar in European hours. The former report is expected to show the economy shed 7,000 jobs for a second consecutive month in July, keeping the Unemployment Rate at 6.8 percent. Meanwhile, the latter is forecast to keep the benchmark inflation rate at 2.4 percent, also unchanged from the previous month.
Barring wild deviations from expectations, neither seems to present much in terms of market-moving potential as investors wait for the ECB monetary policy announcement later in the week. Traders are pricing in an 82.5 percent probability of another 25bps rate cut, so risks appear skewed to the upside in the event that data outperforms and forces traders to reposition for reduced bets on further easing.
Asia Session: What Happened
|
GMT |
CCY |
EVENT |
ACT |
EXP |
PREV |
|
23:01 |
GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (JUL) |
-29 |
-29 |
-29 |
|
|
23:15 |
Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI (JUL) |
47.9 |
- |
49.9 |
|
|
23:30 |
Jobless Rate (JUN) |
4.3% |
4.4% |
4.4% |
|
|
23:30 |
Job-To-Applicant Ratio (JUN) |
0.82 |
0.82 |
0.81 |
|
|
23:30 |
Household Spending (YoY) (JUN) |
1.6% |
2.9% |
4.0% |
|
|
23:50 |
Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (JUN) |
0.1% |
- |
-0.53% |
|
|
1:00 |
NBNZ Activity Outlook (JUL) |
24 |
- |
20.8 |
|
|
1:00 |
NBNZ Business Confidence (JUL) |
15.1 |
- |
12.6 |
|
|
1:30 |
Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (JUN) |
-0.6% |
0.0% |
-1.1% (R-) |
|
|
1:30 |
Private Sector Credit (MoM) (JUN) |
0.3% |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
|
1:30 |
Private Sector Credit (YoY) (JUN) |
4.4% |
4.4% |
4.0% |
|
|
1:30 |
Building Approvals (MoM) (JUN) |
-2.5% |
-15.0% |
27.0% (R-) |
|
|
1:30 |
Building Approvals (YoY) (JUN) |
10.2% |
-5.5% |
9.1% (R-) |
|
|
3:00 |
Money Supply M3 (YoY) (JUN) |
5.7% |
- |
6.3% |
|
|
5:00 |
Annualized Housing Starts (JUN) |
0.837M |
0.916M |
0.903M |
|
|
5:00 |
Construction Orders (YoY) (JUN) |
4.6% |
- |
-0.9% |
|
|
5:00 |
Housing Starts (YoY) (JUN) |
-0.2% |
9.4% |
9.3% |
Euro Session: What to Expect
|
GMT |
CCY |
EVENT |
EXP |
PREV |
IMPACT |
|
6:00 |
EUR |
German Retail Sales (MoM) (JUN) |
0.5% |
-0.3% |
Medium |
|
6:00 |
EUR |
German Retail Sales (YoY) (JUN) |
0.4% |
-1.1% |
Medium |
|
6:00 |
UBS Consumption Indicator (JUN) |
- |
1.05 |
Low |
|
|
6:45 |
EUR |
French Consumer Spending (MoM) (JUN) |
0.2% |
0.4% |
Low |
|
6:45 |
EUR |
French Consumer Spending (YoY) (JUN) |
0.4% |
0.6% |
Low |
|
6:45 |
EUR |
French Producer Prices (MoM) (JUN) |
-0.3% |
-1.0% |
Low |
|
6:45 |
EUR |
French Producer Prices (YoY) (JUN) |
2.1% |
2.2% |
Low |
|
7:55 |
EUR |
German Unemployment Change (JUL) |
7K |
7K |
High |
|
7:55 |
EUR |
German Unemployment Rate s.a. (JUL) |
6.8% |
6.8% |
Medium |
|
8:00 |
EUR |
Italian Unemployment Rate s.a. (JUN P) |
10.3% |
10.1% |
Low |
|
9:00 |
EUR |
Italian CPI – EU Harmonized (MoM) (JUL P) |
-1.7% |
0.2% |
Low |
|
9:00 |
EUR |
Italian CPI – EU Harmonized (YoY) (JUL P) |
3.6% |
3.6% |
Low |
|
9:00 |
EUR |
Italian PPI (MoM) (JUN) |
-0.2% |
-0.3% |
Low |
|
9:00 |
EUR |
Italian PPI (YoY) (JUN) |
2.0% |
2.3% |
Low |
|
9:00 |
EUR |
Italian CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) (MoM) (JUL P) |
0.2% |
0.2% |
Low |
|
9:00 |
EUR |
Italian CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) (YoY) (JUL P) |
3.2% |
3.3% |
Low |
|
9:00 |
EUR |
Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (JUN) |
11.2% |
11.1% |
Medium |
|
9:00 |
EUR |
Euro-Zone CPI Estimate (YoY) (JUL) |
2.4% |
2.4% |
High |
Critical Levels
|
CCY |
SUPPORT |
RESISTANCE |
|
1.2209 |
1.2327 |
|
|
1.5630 |
1.5753 |
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com
To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak
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