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Euro, Pound Vulnerable as UK GDP and German IFO Boost Rate Cut Bets

Euro, Pound Vulnerable as UK GDP and German IFO Boost Rate Cut Bets

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points

  • UK GDP Slump May Weigh on Pound Amid Building Rate Cut Bets
  • Euro at Risk if Soft German IFO Print Bolsters ECB Easing Outlook
  • US Dollar Little Changed Despite Sharp Risk Aversion in Asian Trade

The preliminary set of UK Gross Domestic Product figures headlines the economic calendar in European hours. Expectations call for output to shrink for a third consecutive period in the three months through June. This may reinforce expectations of further easing that emerged following last week’s release of minutes from this month’s Bank of England policy meeting, weighing on the British Pound. Meanwhile, the German IFO survey of business confidence is expected to show sentiment fell to a 28-month low in July. The result may encourage bets on another ECB interest rate cut in August, marginally compounding downward pressure on the Euro, though follow-through could prove limited considering traders already price in an 82.5 percent chance of a further 25bps decrease.

The US Dollar was little changed against its leading counterparts in overnight trade despite a sharp drop across Asian stock exchanges that may have been expected to boost the go-to haven currency. The move in equities appeared to reflect catch-up trade to risk aversion seen on Wall Street rather than a response to something discretely new, allowing for consolidation in the FX space even as the MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark stock index slumped 1.2 percent. The New Zealand Dollar narrowly underperformed ahead of tomorrow’s RBNZ interest rate decision. Meanwhile the Australian Dollar was effectively flat on the session after second-quarter CPI figures printed broadly in line with expectations, offering no additional guidance for the RBA policy outlook.

Asia Session: What Happened

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:45

NZD

Trade Balance (NZ$) (JUN)

331M

2M

232M (R-)

22:45

NZD

Trade Balance YTD (NZ$) (JUN)

-747M

-1001M

-876M (R+)

22:45

NZD

Exports (NZ$) (JUN)

4.20B

3.83B

4.41B (R-)

22:45

NZD

Imports (NZ$) (JUN)

3.87B

3.82B

4.18B (R+)

23:50

JPY

Adj Merch Trade Balance (¥) (JUN)

-300.8B

-402.0B

-618.3B (R+)

23:50

JPY

Merch Trade Balance Total (¥) (JUN)

61.7B

-140.0B

-910.4B (R-)

23:50

JPY

Merch Trade Exports (YoY) (JUN)

-2.3

-3

10

23:50

JPY

Merch Trade Imports (YoY) (JUN)

-2.2

1.1

9.3

0:00

AUD

Conference Board Leading Index (MAY)

0.4%

-

-1.3% (R+)

1:00

AUD

DEWR Internet Skilled Vacancies (MoM) (JUN)

-1.8%

-

-1.7% (R-)

1:30

AUD

Consumer Prices Index (QoQ) (2Q)

0.5%

0.6%

0.1%

1:30

AUD

Consumer Prices Index (YoY) (2Q)

1.2%

1.3%

1.6%

1:30

AUD

RBA Trimmed Mean (QoQ) (2Q)

0.5%

0.6%

0.4% (R+)

1:30

AUD

RBA Trimmed Mean (YoY) (2Q)

2.0%

1.9%

2.2%

1:30

AUD

RBA Weighted Median (QoQ) (2Q)

0.7%

0.6%

0.4%

1:30

AUD

RBA Weighted Median (YoY) (2Q)

1.9%

1.9%

2.1%

Euro Session: What to Expect

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

6:45

EUR

French Business Survey Overall Demand (JUL)

-

3

Low

8:00

EUR

German IFO - Business Climate (JUL)

104.5

105.3

Medium

8:00

EUR

German IFO - Current Assessment (JUL)

113

113.9

Medium

8:00

EUR

German IFO – Expectations (JUL)

96.8

97.3

Medium

8:00

EUR

Italian Consumer Confidence Index (SA) (JUL)

85

85.3

Low

8:30

GBP

Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (2Q A)

-0.2%

-0.3%

High

8:30

GBP

Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (2Q A)

-0.3%

-0.2%

High

8:30

GBP

Index of Services (MoM) (MAY)

0.2%

0.0%

Low

8:30

GBP

Index of Services (3Mo3M) (MAY)

0.3%

0.0%

Low

10:00

GBP

CBI Trends Total Orders (JUL)

-10

-11

Low

10:00

GBP

CBI Trends Selling Prices (JUL)

0

2

Low

10:00

GBP

CBI Business Optimism (JUL)

0

22

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.2023

1.2176

GBPUSD

1.5478

1.5580

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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