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Currency Markets Look to US Economic Data, Earnings for Direction Cues

Currency Markets Look to US Economic Data, Earnings for Direction Cues

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points

  • Eurozone Inflation Unlikely to Prove Market-Moving for the Euro
  • Dollar May Rise as Manufacturing Sales Data Dents QE3 Outlook
  • Euro Crisis Impact on Global Credit Sought in Citigroup Earnings
  • IMF to Release Growth Outlook Update, Regional Breakdown Key

Eurozone CPI figures headline a relatively tame European economic calendar. Economists’ forecasts call for the annualized inflation rate to hold at 2.4 percent in June, matching flash estimates released two weeks ago. This means a print in line with expectations is unlikely to prove materially market-moving. A significant upside surprise can carry negative implications for risk appetite in that it could trim ECB rate cut expectations, denting hopes for some relief in a region lining up as the singularly greatest headwind to overall global output this year. By the same token, a particularly weak number may stoke risk trends but weigh on the Euro.

The spotlight promptly shifts to US economic data and the earnings calendar. The Empire Manufacturing survey marks the first of July’s batch of regional activity gauges, offering a timely read on the world’s largest economy and with it hopes for stabilization on the global front at large. Expectations call for a narrow improvement after the metric hit a 7-month low in June. Separately, US Retail Sales is expected to snap a two-month losing streak with a narrow 0.2 percent increase.

Taken together, these outcomes may reinforce the recent stabilization in US economic data and boost the Dollar as QE3 expectations are narrowly downgraded. Significant follow-through is unlikely however as all eyes focus on Ben Bernanke’s Congressional testimony later in the week to guide stimulus bets.

On the corporate earnings front, second-quarter results from Citigroup Inc take top billing today. Traders will be most interested in the bank’s guidance vis-à-vis the Eurozone debt crisis, looking for evidence on the impact of sovereign and bank solvency jitters in the on market-wide financial conditions.

The International Monetary Fund is also due to publish an updated set of global growth expectations. IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde has already suggested a downgrade to worldwide performance is to be unveiled. Markets will be interested in the regional breakdown however. Indeed, a recession in Europe and slowdown in Asia have been expected for some time, but a material cut in expected North American performance may stoke risk aversion.

Major currencies were little changed in overnight trade as markets digested Friday’s sharp recovery in risk appetite. Japanese markets were closed for the Marine Day holiday, sapping liquidity and reinforcing the quiet mood. The Yen narrowly outperformed as S&P 500 stock index futures turned lower, reinforcing the notion that Friday’s rally was driven by short-covering rather than a genuine positive catalyst and boosting demand for the regional haven currency.

Asia Session: What Happened

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:30

NZD

Performance Services Index (JUN)

54.3

-

56.6 (R-)

23:01

GBP

Rightmove House Prices (MoM) (JUL)

-1.7%

-

1.0%

23:01

GBP

Rightmove House Prices (YoY) (JUL)

2.3%

2.3%

2.4%

Euro Session: What to Expect

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

7:15

CHF

Industrial Production (QoQ) (1Q)

-8.1%

7.9%

Medium

7:15

CHF

Industrial Production (YoY) (1Q)

0.0%

-1.4%

Medium

8:00

EUR

Italian Trade Balance (Total) (€) (MAY)

-

-202M

Low

8:00

EUR

Italian Trade Balance Eu (€) (MAY)

-

702M

Low

8:30

EUR

Italian General Government Debt (MAY)

-

1948.6B

Low

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone CPI - Core (YoY) (JUN)

1.6%

1.6%

Low

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone CPI (MoM) (JUN)

0.0%

-0.1%

High

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone CPI (YoY) (JUN)

2.4%

2.4%

High

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Trade Balance s.a. (€) (MAY)

5.0B

6.2B

Low

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Trade Balance (€) (MAY)

4.0B

5.2B

Low

13:00

EUR

France to Sell €7.6B in 3-, 6-, 12-mo Bills

-

-

Medium

13:30

-

IMF Releases Updated Global Growth Forecast

-

-

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.2189

1.2283

GBPUSD

1.5466

1.5632

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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