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Euro May Fall as Slowing German Inflation Drives ECB Rate Cut Bets

Euro May Fall as Slowing German Inflation Drives ECB Rate Cut Bets

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points

  • Euro May Fall as Slowing German Inflation Drives ECB Interest Rate Cut Bets
  • Germany’s Merkel to Brief Bundestag on EU Summit Agenda, Italy to Sell Bills
  • New Zealand Dollar Underperforms After Yearly Trade Deficit Widens in May

The preliminary set of June’s German Consumer Price Index figures headline the economic calendar in European hours. Expectations call for the annualized inflation rate to tick lower for the second consecutive month to print at 1.8 percent, the lowest since December 2010. The outcome may prove to weigh on the Euro as being inflationary pressure against a backdrop of slumping regional economic growth opens the door for building ECB rate cut expectations.

Separately, German Chancellor Angela Merkel is due to address the Bundestag (lower house of the legislature) on her goals for the two-day EU leaders’ summit due to begin on Thursday. Concrete policy proposals are unlikely to emerge. Still, traders will be keen to gauge the Chancellor’s tone amid concerns that Germany represents the most significant obstacle forging a Eurozone-wide debt obligation-sharing scheme meant to boost confidence and help arrest the region’s debt crisis.

The US Dollar was little-changed against its top counterparts in overnight trade. The New Zealand Dollar underperformed, slumping as much as 0.2 percent on average, after the May Trade Balance report showed that the year-to-date deficit widened to -NZ$805 million. That marks the second consecutive month in negative territory and the largest shortfall since November 2009.

Asia Session: What Happened

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:45

NZD

Trade Balance (NZ$) (MAY)

301M

300M

335M (R-)

22:45

NZD

Exports (NZ$) (MAY)

4.42B

4.06B

3.87B (R-)

22:45

NZD

Imports (NZ$) (MAY)

4.11

3.80B

3.53B

22:45

NZD

Trade Balance YTD (NZ$) (MAY)

-805M

-790M

-557M (R-)

Euro Session: What to Expect

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

6:00

EUR

German Import Price Index (MoM) (MAY)

-0.6%

-0.5%

Low

6:00

EUR

German Import Price Index (YoY) (MAY)

2.3%

2.3%

Low

8:00

EUR

Italian Business Confidence (JUN) (JUN)

85.5

86.2

Low

8:30

GBP

BBA Loans for House Purchase (MAY)

33000

32438

Medium

9:00

EUR

Italy to Sell €9B in 185-Day Bills

-

-

Low

10:00

GBP

CBI Reported Sales (JUN)

15

21

Low

11:00

USD

MBA Mortgage Applications (JUN 22)

-

-

Low

12:00

EUR

German Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JUN P)

0.0%

-0.2%

High

12:00

EUR

German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUN P)

1.8%

1.9%

High

12:00

EUR

German CPI - EU Harmonized (MoM) (JUN P)

-0.1%

-0.2%

Medium

12:00

EUR

German CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) (JUN P)

2.1%

2.2%

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.2445

1.2534

GBPUSD

1.5587

1.5674

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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