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Euro Looks to Eurozone Inflation, German Jobs Data for Direction

Euro Looks to Eurozone Inflation, German Jobs Data for Direction

2012-05-31 05:35:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points

  • Euro Looks to Eurozone Inflation, German Jobs Data for Direction
  • Yen Outperforms Overnight as Asian Stocks Follow Wall Street Lower

The preliminary estimate of May’s Eurozone CPI print is in focus in European hours, with expectations putting headline inflation at 2.5 percent, the slowest in nine months. Coupled with yesterday’s weak M3 figures, the outcome may weigh on the Euro as ECB rate cut expectations begin to take shape. Separately, German Unemployment figures are forecast to show a 7,000 decline in May after last month’s surprise 19,000 increase, leaving the jobless rate unchanged at 6.8 percent. Finally, Switzerland’s Gross Domestic Product report is due to show economic growth stalled in the first quarter, marking the worst performance in three years.

Meanwhile, Ireland is due to hold a national referendum on the EU Fiscal Compact treaty. Opinion polls indicate voters are likely to approve the measure. In the event of a “no” vote however, the intergovernmental nature of the pact would allow it to continue forward without Ireland, though the country would then be cut off from access to the ESM bailout fund. Such an outcome may compound Eurozone sovereign risk concerns. Preliminary results are expected to appear Friday morning. ECB President Mario Draghiis also scheduled to speak before the European Parliament's economic and monetary committee in his role as the head of the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB), which may prove particularly telling given the degree of recent volatility across financial markets.

The Japanese Yen outperformed in overnight trade as Asian stocks declined, driving demand for the regional safe haven currency. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark equities index lost 1.2 percent, following Wall Street lower amid spreading Eurozone debt crisis fears. Rising concerns about fiscal sustainability in Spain are overtaking Greece-linked worries, where traders continue to wait for the June 17 repeat general election to establish direction cues. The Financial Times reported the ECB rejected a plan by the Spanish government to recapitalize ailing lender Bankia, which the central bank later denied. Madrid allegedly intended to inject €19 billion in sovereign bonds directly into the bank, which it could then swap for cash at the ECB. The US Dollar (ticker: USDollar) was little changed against the majors as the greenback digested a surge to 18-month highs over the preceding 24 hours.

Asia Session: What Happened

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:01

GBP

GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (MAY)

-29

-32

-31

23:50

JPY

Industrial Production (YoY) (APR P)

13.4%

13.7%

14.2%

23:50

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM) (APR P)

0.2%

0.5%

1.3%

1:00

NZD

NBNZ Activity Outlook (MAY)

34.9

-

36.1

1:00

NZD

NBNZ Business Confidence (MAY)

27.1

-

35.8

1:30

AUD

Private Capital Expenditure (QoQ) (1Q)

6.1%

4.0%

-0.7% (R-)

1:30

JPY

Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (APR)

0.8%

1.1%

0.9% (R-)

1:30

AUD

Building Approvals (MoM) (APR)

-8.7%

0.3%

6.0% (R-)

1:30

AUD

Building Approvals (YoY) (APR)

-24.1%

-13.8%

-15.8% (R-)

1:30

AUD

Private Sector Credit (MoM) (APR)

0.4%

0.3%

0.5% (R+)

1:30

AUD

Private Sector Credit (YoY) (APR)

3.8%

3.7%

3.4%

3:00

NZD

Money Supply M3 (YoY) (APR)

5.5%

-

5.0%

4:00

JPY

Vehicle Production (YoY) (APR)

173.8%

-

143.7%

5:00

JPY

Construction Orders (YoY) (APR)

16.2%

-

-0.3%

5:00

JPY

Annualized Housing Starts (APR)

0.896M

0.838M

0.848M

5:00

JPY

Housing Starts (YoY) (APR)

10.3%

3.2%

5.0%

Euro Session: What to Expect

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

5:45

CHF

Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (1Q)

0.0%

0.1%

Medium

5:45

CHF

Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (1Q)

0.7%

1.3%

Medium

6:00

EUR

German Retail Sales (MoM) (APR)

0.2%

1.6%

Medium

6:00

EUR

German Retail Sales (YoY) (APR)

0.3%

2.3%

Medium

6:00

GBP

Nationwide House Prices s.a. (MoM) (MAY)

0.1%

-0.2%

Medium

6:00

GBP

Nationwide House Prices n.s.a. (YoY) (MAY)

-1.1%

-0.9%

Medium

6:45

EUR

French Producer Prices (MoM) (MAY)

0.2%

0.5%

Low

6:45

EUR

French Producer Prices (YoY) (MAY)

2.9%

3.7%

Low

6:45

EUR

French Consumer Spending (MoM) (MAY)

0.3%

-2.9%

Low

6:45

EUR

French Consumer Spending (YoY) (MAY)

0.0%

-2.0%

Low

7:00

EUR

ECB President Draghi Speaks to EU Parliament

-

-

Medium

7:55

EUR

German Unemployment Rate s.a. (MAY)

6.8%

6.8%

High

7:55

EUR

German Unemployment Change (MAY)

-7K

19K

High

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone CPI Estimate (YoY) (MAY)

2.5%

2.6%

High

9:00

EUR

Italian CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) (MoM) (MAY P)

0.1%

0.5%

Low

9:00

EUR

Italian CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) (YoY) (MAY P)

3.3%

3.3%

Low

9:00

EUR

Italian CPI – EU Harmonized (MoM) (MAY P)

0.1%

0.9%

Low

9:00

EUR

Italian CPI – EU Harmonized (YoY) (MAY P)

3.6%

3.7%

Low

-

EUR

Ireland Referendum on Fiscal Compact Treaty

-

-

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.2317

1.2461

GBPUSD

1.5420

1.5591

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

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