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Dollar May Pull Back as Profit-Taking Drives Risk Appetite Recovery

Dollar May Pull Back as Profit-Taking Drives Risk Appetite Recovery

2012-05-25 07:02:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points

  • US Dollar Gains as China Slowdown Fears Weigh on Stocks in Asia
  • Risky Assets May Correct Higher as Markets Absorb Negative News-Flow
  • UofM Consumer Confidence Gauge May Tip Scales for Mixed US Data

The US Dollar (ticker: USDollar) edged higher against its top counterparts overnight as Asian stocks declined, boosting demand for the go-to safe-haven currency. Not surprisingly, the stocks-sensitive Australian and New Zealand Dollars bore the brunt of the selloff. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark equity index slid 0.6 percent amid reports that Chinese banks may miss their loans target for the first time in seven years in 2012, reinforcing fears of slowing economic activity in the world’s second-largest economy.

Looking ahead, the risk-off mood that has prevailed across financial markets over the past three weeks appears vulnerable to reversal. With the EU leaders’ summit in the rearview mirror and the latest batch of PMIs from China and the Eurozone reinforcing the seriousness of headwinds facing global output, the supply of near-term negativity that can conceivably strike the markets may be running dry. Put simply, while there seem to be ample reasons to be generally short risky assets, it may no longer appear attractive to get shorter at current levels. This opens the door for profit-taking to spark a corrective upswing until the bears return in force ahead of the repeat Greek election in mid-June.

The economic calendar is relatively quiet in European hours, with traders likely to look ahead to the final revision of May’s University of Michigan gauge of US Consumer Confidence as the next significant bit of event risk. Expectations call for confirmation of the originally reported outcome of 77.8, the highest reading since January 2008. After a second week of mixed May survey results, the outcome could prove to tip the scales in shaping traders’ perception of the US recovery and its ability to mitigate Europe- and Asia-driven downward pressure on global growth.

Asia Session: What Happened

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:30

JPY

National CPI (YoY) (APR)

0.4%

0.4%

0.5%

23:30

JPY

National CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (APR)

0.2%

0.1%

0.2%

23:30

JPY

National CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (APR)

-0.3%

-0.4%

-0.5%

23:30

JPY

Tokyo CPI (YoY) (MAY)

-0.5%

-0.3%

-0.3%

23:30

JPY

Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (MAY)

-0.8%

-0.5%

-0.5%

23:30

JPY

Tokyo CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (MAY)

-1.3%

-1.0%

-1.0%

1:35

CNY

MNI Business Condition Survey (MAY)

54.40

52.99

56.04

Euro Session: What to Expect

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

6:00

EUR

German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (MAY)

5.6

5.6

Medium

6:45

EUR

French Consumer Confidence Indicator (MAY)

88

88

Low

8:00

EUR

Italian Retail Sales (MoM) (MAR)

-0.2%

0.6%

Low

8:00

EUR

Italian Retail Sales (YoY) (MAR)

-

0.1%

Low

9:00

EUR

Italian Hourly Wages (YoY) (APR)

-

1.2%

Low

9:00

EUR

Italian Hourly Wages (MoM) (APR)

-

0.0%

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.2492

1.2596

GBPUSD

1.5631

1.5719

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

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