Talking Points
- Euro, Risky Assets Look to Eurozone PMI and German IFO for Direction
- German, UK GDP Reports Unlikely to Stir Volatility Absent Large Revisions
- S&P 500 Stock Index Futures Point Lower, Hinting at Lingering Jitters
The major currencies consolidated in quiet overnight trade as markets digested volatility over the preceding 24 hours before a busy day of European economic data offers new catalysts. The preliminary set of May’s Eurozone PMI figures is in focus. Region-wide metrics are expected to show the manufacturing and services sectors shrank for the fourth consecutive month, with the pace of contractions slightly accelerating from April. Separately, the German IFO business confidence survey is forecast to show sentiment soured in May after printing flat in the prior month.
Markets will look to the outcomes to gauge the degree of regional slowdown, establishing the extent to which it can sabotage deficit-reduction efforts and amplify credit-market stress. After yesterday’s lackluster EU leaders’ summit – which delivered little besides showing surface-level support for keeping Greece within the Eurozone and exposing familiar disagreement on jointly-issued “Eurobonds” – the outcomes may prove decisive in setting the trajectory of the Euro as well as risk-linked currencies until the second Greek election in mid-June.
Elsewhere on the docket, updated first-quarter German GDP numbers are also on tap, with the by-component breakdown due to be unveiled. The report seems likely to pass with little fanfare absent particularly sharp deviations from previously seen results. Revised UK GDP figures for the same period will probably follow a similar dynamic. On the sentiment front, S&P 500 stock index futures are pointing narrowly lower, hinting at lingering jitters across financial markets
Asia Session: What Happened
|
GMT |
CCY |
EVENT |
ACT |
EXP |
PREV |
|
22:45 |
Trade Balance (NZ$) |
355M |
400M |
186M (R+) |
|
|
22:45 |
Exports (NZ$) |
3.89B |
4.10B |
4.21B (R-) |
|
|
22:45 |
Imports (NZ$) |
3.53B |
3.70B |
4.02B (R-) |
|
|
22:45 |
Trade Balance YTD (NZ$) |
-541M |
-651M |
262M (R+) |
|
|
1:00 |
CBAHIA House Affordability |
61.8 |
- |
58.5 |
|
|
2:30 |
CNY |
HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI |
48.7 |
- |
49.3 |
|
5:00 |
BOJ Monthly Economic Report |
- |
- |
- |
Euro Session: What to Expect
|
GMT |
CCY |
EVENT |
EXP |
PREV |
IMPACT |
|
6:00 |
EUR |
German GDP n.s.a. (YoY) (1Q F) |
1.7% |
1.7% |
Medium |
|
6:00 |
EUR |
German GDP w.d.a. (YoY) (1Q F) |
1.2% |
1.2% |
Medium |
|
6:00 |
EUR |
German GDP s.a. (QoQ) (1Q F) |
0.5% |
0.5% |
Medium |
|
6:00 |
EUR |
German Exports (1Q) |
0.9% |
-0.8% |
Low |
|
6:00 |
EUR |
German Imports (1Q) |
0.3% |
-0.3% |
Low |
|
6:00 |
EUR |
German Domestic Demand (1Q) |
0.0% |
0.1% |
Low |
|
6:00 |
EUR |
German Capital Investment (1Q) |
-0.3% |
1.1% |
Low |
|
6:00 |
EUR |
German Government Spending (1Q) |
0.3% |
0.1% |
Low |
|
6:00 |
EUR |
German Construction Investment (1Q) |
-0.4% |
1.9% |
Low |
|
6:00 |
EUR |
German Private Consumption (1Q) |
0.2% |
-0.2% |
Low |
|
6:00 |
Trade Balance (CHF) (APR) |
1.90B |
1.58B |
Medium |
|
|
6:00 |
Imports (MoM) (APR) |
- |
4.6% |
Low |
|
|
6:00 |
Exports (MoM) (APR) |
0.2% |
-2.5% |
Low |
|
|
6:45 |
EUR |
France Production Outlook Indicator (MAY) |
- |
-14 |
Low |
|
6:45 |
EUR |
France Own-Company Production Outlook (MAY) |
- |
-4 |
Low |
|
6:45 |
EUR |
France Business Confidence Indicator (MAY) |
94 |
95 |
Low |
|
7:00 |
EUR |
French PMI Manufacturing (MAY P) |
47.0 |
46.9 |
Medium |
|
7:00 |
EUR |
French PMI Services (MAY P) |
45.7 |
45.2 |
Medium |
|
7:30 |
EUR |
German PMI Manufacturing (MAY P) |
47.0 |
46.2 |
High |
|
7:30 |
EUR |
German PMI Services (MAY P) |
52.0 |
52.2 |
High |
|
8:00 |
EUR |
Euro-Zone PMI Composite (MAY P) |
46.6 |
46.7 |
High |
|
8:00 |
EUR |
Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing (MAY P) |
46.0 |
45.9 |
High |
|
8:00 |
EUR |
Euro-Zone PMI Services (MAY P) |
46.7 |
46.9 |
High |
|
8:00 |
EUR |
German IFO – Business Climate (MAY) |
109.4 |
109.9 |
Medium |
|
8:00 |
EUR |
German IFO – Expectations (MAY) |
102.0 |
102.7 |
Medium |
|
8:00 |
EUR |
German IFO – Current Assessment (MAY) |
117.1 |
117.5 |
Medium |
|
8:30 |
BBA Loans for House Purchase (APR) |
32000 |
31888 |
Low |
|
|
8:30 |
Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (1Q P) |
-0.2% |
-0.2% |
Medium |
|
|
8:30 |
Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (1Q P) |
0.0% |
0.0% |
Medium |
|
|
8:30 |
Private Consumption (1Q P) |
0.3% |
0.4% |
Low |
|
|
8:30 |
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (1Q P) |
-0.5% |
-0.6% |
Low |
|
|
8:30 |
Government Spending (1Q P) |
0.0% |
0.5% |
Low |
|
|
8:30 |
Exports (1Q P) |
-0.3% |
1.6% |
Low |
|
|
8:30 |
Imports (1Q P) |
0.1% |
0.9% |
Low |
|
|
8:30 |
Total Business Investment (QoQ) (1Q E) |
-1.0% |
-3.3% |
Low |
|
|
8:30 |
Total Business Investment (YoY) (1Q E) |
9.2% |
1.6% |
Low |
|
|
8:30 |
Index of Services (MoM) (MAR) |
0.3% |
-0.4% |
Low |
|
|
8:30 |
Index of Services (3M/3M) (MAR) |
0.2% |
0.2% |
Low |
Critical Levels
|
CCY |
SUPPORT |
RESISTANCE |
|
1.2461 |
1.2666 |
|
|
1.5618 |
1.5750 |
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com
To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak
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