News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • #Gold attempted to rebound from multi-month lows today, climbing as high as $1,760 before hitting resistance and turning back downwards. The precious metal is now trading back around $1,735. $XAU $GLD https://t.co/QgXRBljgWe
  • Equities have managed to start the new month on the front foot as bond yields are taking a breather from their rapid surge over the last few weeks. DAX 30 bulls aim towards the 14,000 mark. Get your #DAX market update from @HathornSabin here:https://t.co/E7CYIM0KQC https://t.co/bnFyQfXLP6
  • ECB President Lagarde: - Pandemic is still heavily weighing on European economies - ECB will do its job to ensure firms and families can access finances needed to weather the storm - They can do so with confidence that financing conditions will not tighten prematurely #ECB $EUR
  • Heads Up:💶 ECB President Lagarde Speech due at 16:10 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-03-01
  • Forex Update: As of 15:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇦🇺AUD: 0.92% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.66% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.62% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.04% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.25% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.65% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/hg9Ce9xspE
  • The FTSE 100 has not been an easy handle lately, a theme that is often the case with this index and its choppy price action. Get your #FTSE market update from @PaulRobinsonFX here:https://t.co/QcIFpL232J https://t.co/nisYpjAFbJ
  • 🇲🇽 Markit Manufacturing PMI (FEB) Actual: 44.2 Previous: 43 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-03-01
  • In line with comments from Stournaras last week - ECB should accelerate PEPP purchases - No fundamental justification for a tightening of bond yields at long end - GC Should instruct board at March 11 meeting to fight unwarranted tightening of financing conditions
  • The Dollar is really trying again to spark a meaningful reversal yet again, but the market seems to have hardened its skepticism. I'll be watching this $EURUSD support (100SMA and trendline) closely these next 48 hours https://t.co/D1A5gthGdP
  • Heads Up:🇲🇽 Markit Manufacturing PMI (FEB) due at 15:30 GMT (15min) Previous: 43 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-03-01
Euro to Look Past German Jobs Data to PMI Revisions, Pound at Risk

Euro to Look Past German Jobs Data to PMI Revisions, Pound at Risk

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points

  • Euro Likely to Look Past German Unemployment Data, Focus on PMI Revisions
  • British Pound Selling May Continue on Construction PMI, Mortgage Approvals
  • US Dollar, Risk Appetite Outlook Hinges on ADP Report with QE3 Bets in Flux
  • Japanese Yen Sold as Asian Stocks Rise Following Surprisingly Strong US ISM

German Unemployment figures headline the calendar in European hours, with expectations calling for the economy to add 10,000 jobs in April. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 6.7 percent, a record low. On balance, the resilience of the German labor market is nothing new and ought not to prove particularly market-moving for the Euro, with traders paying closer attention to final revisions of April’s Eurozone Manufacturing PMI numbers.

Early estimates showed the factory sector shrank at the fastest pace since June 2009, pointing to deepening recession. This may prove to weigh on the single currency via building ECB rate cut expectations ahead of this week’s policy meeting. Although no change in benchmark lending rates or the announcement of new LTRO efforts are expected this time around, signs of an increasingly aggressive slowdown will prime investors for dovish rhetoric from ECB President Mario Draghi.

Elsewhere on the docket, UK Construction PMI is expected to show the home-building industry grew at the weakest rate in three months while Mortgage Approvals hit the lowest since March 2011. With monetary policy expectations in focus, these outcomes may reinforce downward pressure on the British Pound following yesterday’s dismal manufacturing PMI result.

Later in the session, the US ADP Employment report will enter the spotlight. The likelihood of a Fed QE3 program remains a driving theme for the US Dollar and risk appetite at large, meaning a soft outcome is likely to be taken as fodder for stimulus hopes and weigh on the greenback. Alternatively, an upside surprise will probably produce the opposite result.

The Japanese Yen underperformed in overnight trade, sliding as much as 0.4 percent, as Asian stocks advanced and sapped demand for the safe-haven currency. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark equity index added 0.7 percent after a stronger-than-expected ISM Manufacturing print from the US improved the outlook for regional exporters.

Asia Session: What Happened

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:50

JPY

Monetary Base (YoY) (APR)

-0.3%

-

-0.2%

1:00

NZD

ANZ Commodity Price (APR)

-4.5%

-

-1.7%

1:30

JPY

Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (MAR)

1.3%

-

0.1% (R-)

2:30

CNY

HSBC Manufacturing PMI (APR)

49.3

-

48.3

Euro Session: What to Expect

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

7:15

CHF

Retail Sales (Real) (YoY) (MAR)

1.1%

0.8%

Medium

7:30

CHF

PMI Manufacturing (APR)

51

51.1

Medium

7:45

EUR

Italian PMI Manufacturing (APR)

46.6

47.9

Low

7:50

EUR

French PMI Manufacturing (APR F)

47.3

47.3

Low

7:55

EUR

German Unemployment Change (APR)

-10K

-18K

High

7:55

EUR

German Unemployment Rate s.a. (APR)

6.7%

6.7%

Medium

7:55

EUR

German PMI Manufacturing (APR F)

46.3

46.3

Medium

8:00

EUR

Italian Unemployment Rate s.a. (MAR P)

9.4%

9.3%

Low

8:00

EUR

Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing (APR F)

46.0

46.0

Medium

8:30

GBP

PMI Construction (APR)

54.0

56.7

Medium

8:30

GBP

Net Consumer Credit (MAR)

0.3B

0.4B

Low

8:30

GBP

Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (MAR)

1.0B

1.2B

Low

8:30

GBP

Mortgage Approvals (MAR)

48.0K

49.0K

Medium

8:30

GBP

M4 Money Supply (MoM) (MAR)

-

-1.9%

Low

8:30

GBP

M4 Money Supply (YoY) (MAR)

-

-3.4%

Low

8:30

GBP

M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualised (MAR)

-

2.5%

Low

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (MAR)

10.9%

10.8%

Medium

9:00

EUR

Italian PPI (MoM) (MAR)

0.6%

0.4%

Low

9:00

EUR

Italian PPI (YoY) (MAR)

3.0%

3.2%

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.3082

1.3279

GBPUSD

1.6097

1.6250

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES