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Dollar and Yen Rise on Haven Demand, Aussie Sold as PPI Disappoints

Dollar and Yen Rise on Haven Demand, Aussie Sold as PPI Disappoints

2012-04-23 06:27:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points

  • Eurozone PMIs to Show Manufacturing, Services Sectors Shrank for Third Month
  • US Dollar, Japanese Yen Advance on Safe-Haven Demand as Stocks Decline in Asia
  • Australian Dollar Sold After PPI Misses Expectations, Stoking RBA Rate Cut Bets

The preliminary set of April’s Eurozone PMI readings headlines the calendar in Europe. Economists’ median forecasts suggest the region-wide composite reading will print at 49.3, yielding the third-consecutive print below the 50 “boom-bust” threshold and reflecting continued contraction in manufacturing- and service-sector growth. The pace of decline is expected to moderate a bit compared with the 49.1 result recorded in March.

With the outlook for global economic growth in focus as traders size up the ability of a choppy recovery in the US to offset a recession in the currency bloc and slowdown in China, traders’ response to the release ought to be relatively straight-forward. An upside surprise above the “50” threshold is likely to prove supportive for the Euro as well as risk appetite at large, while a disappointing one can be expected to have the opposite effect. Indeed, in the latter scenario would imply stronger headwinds to world output as well as greater scope for future ECB policy easing.

The Japanese Yen and US Dollar outperformed in overnight trade as stocks declined, boosting demand for the go-to safe haven currencies. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark equity index slid 0.4 percent. The HSBC China Manufacturing PMI gauge printed at 49.1 in April, showing the factory sector shrank for the sixth consecutive month (albeit at a slower pace than in March).

The Australian Dollar bore the brunt of the selloff after first-quarter Producer Price Index figures disappointed, showing wholesale inflation slowed to an annual pace of 1.4 percent. The result marked the weakest reading since the second quarter of 2010 and reinforced expectations calling for the RBA to cut interest rates in May. The markets now price in a 94 percent probability of a 25bps reduction in headline borrowing costs (according to data compiled by Credit Suisse).

Asia Session: What Happened

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

1:30

AUD

Producer Price Index (QoQ) (1Q)

-0.3%

0.4%

0.3%

1:30

AUD

Producer Price Index (YoY) (1Q)

1.4%

2.2%

2.9%

2:30

CNY

HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI (APR)

49.1

-

48.3

5:00

JPY

Supermarket Sales (YoY) (MAR)

-2.4%

-

0.3%

5:00

JPY

Coincident Index (APR F)

95.0

-

93.7

5:00

JPY

Leading Index (APR F)

96.3

-

96.6

Euro Session: What to Expect

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

6:45

EUR

French Own-Company Production Outlook (APR)

-

6

Low

6:45

EUR

French Production Outlook Indicator (APR)

-

-15

Low

6:45

EUR

French Business Confidence Indicator (APR)

96

96

Low

7:00

CHF

Money Supply M3 (YoY) (MAR)

-

6.4%

Low

7:00

CHF

Real Estate Index Family Homes (1Q)

-

404.6

Low

7:00

EUR

French PMI Manufacturing (APR P)

47.4

46.7

Low

7:00

EUR

French PMI Services (APR P)

50.1

50.1

Low

7:30

EUR

German PMI Manufacturing (APR A)

49

48.4

Medium

7:30

EUR

German PMI Services (APR A)

52.3

52.1

Medium

8:00

EUR

Euro-Zone PMI Composite (APR A)

49.3

49.1

Medium

8:00

EUR

Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing (APR A)

48.1

47.7

Medium

8:00

EUR

Euro-Zone PMI Services (APR A)

49.3

49.2

Medium

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Government Debt/GDP Ratio (2011)

-

85.4%

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.3133

1.3232

GBPUSD

1.6053

1.6163

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

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