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Talking Points

  • FX Markets Look to Fed Beige Book, Officials’ Comments with QE3 Speculation in Focus
  • Japanese Yen, US Dollar Correct Lower Against Major Currencies in Overnight Trade

Another lackluster day on the European economic data front keeps the focus on Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations as traders mull the probability of additional stimulus in the aftermath of Friday’s disappointing US employment report. The first bit of meaningful evidence needed to determine if that outcome as a one-off outlier or a real turning point in the fragile recovery is on tap ahead as with the Fed Beige Book regional economic conditions survey. Signs of faltering momentum are likely to drive QE3 hopes, weighing on the US Dollar (ticker: USDollar) while boosting risk appetite and stocks-linked currencies, notably the Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars, and vice versa.

The Fed speaking calendar likewise remains in focus. Atlanta Fed President Lockhart, Boston Fed President Rosengren, Kansas City Fed President George, St. Louis Fed President Bullard, and Vice Chair Yellen are on the docket. Only Lockhart and Yellen are members of the rate-setting FOMC this year, but judging by yesterday’s impact of remarks from the Minneapolis Fed’s Kocherlakota and the Dallas Fed’s Fisher, markets may nonetheless find directional momentum in the gamut of commentary.

The greenback and the Japanese Yen retreated against their major counterparts in overnight trade as currency markets corrected after yesterday’s aggressive risk-aversion push across most asset classes. Asian stocks followed Wall Street lower, with the MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark equity index down 0.8 percent. On the data front, Australian Consumer Confidence fell for the second consecutive month according to data from Westpac while Home Loans recorded their largest drawdown in 11 months. Japanese Machine Orders data surprised to the upside, posting a 4.8 percent month-on-month increase compared with forecasts for a 0.8 percent decline.

Asia Session: What Happened

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:00

NZD

NZIER Business Opinion Survey (1Q)

13

-

0

23:01

GBP

BRC Sales Like-For-Like (YoY) (MAR)

1.3%

0.0%

-0.3%

23:50

JPY

Bank Lending Banks ex-Trust (MAR)

0.9%

0.7%

0.8%

23:50

JPY

Bank Lending incl Trusts (YoY) (MAR)

0.8%

-

0.6%

23:50

JPY

Machine Orders (YoY) (FEB)

8.9%

3.0%

5.7%

23:50

JPY

Machine Orders (MoM) (FEB)

4.8%

-0.8%

3.4%

0:30

AUD

Westpac Consumer Confidence (APR)

-1.6%

-

-5.0%

0:30

AUD

Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (APR)

94.5

-

96.1

1:30

AUD

Home Loans (FEB)

-2.5%

-4.0%

-1.1% (R+)

1:30

AUD

Investment Lending (FEB)

4.4%

-

-6.8% (R+)

1:30

AUD

Value of Loans (MoM) (FEB)

-4.0%

-

0.0% (R-)

Euro Session: What to Expect

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

6:00

EUR

German Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (MAR)

-

1.0%

Low

6:00

EUR

German Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (MAR)

-

2.6%

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.3042

1.3133

GBPUSD

1.5804

1.5989

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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