We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
Gold
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Commodities Update: As of 19:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.47% Oil - US Crude: -0.13% Silver: -0.18% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/JhDhC307cu
  • Important to keep in mind ahead of $AAPL earnings tomorrow considering what happened the last time they revised their outlook lower - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2019/01/02/Apple-Cuts-Revenue-Forecast-on-US-China-Trade-War-USDJPY-Crashes.html?ref-author=phanks https://t.co/XSOY7Ow5pa
  • Here is an update to the rolling 12-month market performance of those assets that I consider to be 'risk sensitivity' through today's fireworks. No doubt in my mind it is a 'risk move' https://t.co/1ThNLiUIOq
  • #Gold price outlook grows rosier as the latest #coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan, China roils stock market investor sentiment owing to its potential adverse impact on GDP growth. Get your $gld market update from @RichDvorakFX here: https://t.co/Cbk5vZTz6e $XAUUSD https://t.co/VzCpL5QW54
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.56%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 67.46%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/kpKqjbVqdu
  • Indices Update: As of 19:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: 0.23% Germany 30: 0.18% US 500: -1.25% Wall Street: -1.26% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/J54AuWzgUD
  • $EURGBP rallied to 0.8596 -its highest level in nearly eight weeks. However, the market retreated form that level and settled below 0.8500 handle. Get your market update from @malkudsi here: https://t.co/S27802jwCE https://t.co/rqS8jlM4rC
  • Jan 31: - Q4 earnings: Caterpillar, Exxon Mobil, Chevron - #BREXIT: UK🇬🇧 is scheduled to leave the EU after years of political gridlock - US personal income/spending data and U. of Mich. sentiment report - China 🇨🇳 PMI - GDP data: France🇫🇷, Spain🇪🇸, Italy🇮🇹 and Eurozone🇪🇺
  • Jan 30: - Q4 earnings: Samsung, Deutsche Bank, Amazon - BoE rate decision 🇬🇧 - US🇺🇸 Q4 GDP - Mexico🇲🇽 GDP - Eurozone 🇪🇺 Economic confidence, unemployment reports - Germany 🇩🇪 inflation data
  • Jan 29: - #FOMC rate decision, Powell conference - Q4 earnings: #Facebook, #Tesla - EIA releases 2020 energy outlook👀 - Italy🇮🇹 manufacturing and consumer confidence data - France🇫🇷 consumer confidence
FOREX: Dollar Poised to Extend Gains as Risk Aversion Returns

FOREX: Dollar Poised to Extend Gains as Risk Aversion Returns

2012-03-14 07:23:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
Share:

Talking Points

  • US Dollar Higher in Asia as FOMC Announcement Weighs on QE3 Bets
  • S&P 500 Futures Point to Risk Aversion, Hinting Dollar to Extend Gains
  • UK Jobless Claims Unlikely to be Major Market-Mover for British Pound

The US Dollar (ticker: USDollar) continued to push higher overnight after adding 0.23 percent against its leading counterparts over the preceding 24 hours after the Federal Reserve policy announcement scattered QE3 expectations further, easing concerns policymakers would further dilute the benchmark currency. S&P 500 stock index futures are pointing materially lower in late Asian trade, hinting risk aversion is likely to propel the greenback higher still in the hours ahead.

The US currency broke with its long-stranding inverse relationship with stock prices yesterday. Indeed, the S&P 500 surged higher alongside the Dollar in the aftermath of the FOMC announcement, a response that we did not expect. The break-down of risk on/off trading dynamics seems like a temporary development however, with the impact of FOMC on equities obscured by an unexpected announcement of an increase in dividend payments and a $15 billion share buyback from JPMorgan. This delayed downward pressure on risky assets from reduced QE3 expectations, but is unlikely to have dismissed it altogether. With that in mind, a catch-up move lower in sentiment and linked assets appears probable.

On the economic data front, UK Jobless Claims figures are on tap. Expectations call for a relatively modest 5k increase in applications for unemployment benefits. The three-month Unemployment Rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 8.4 percent. A print in line with expectations will probably neither advance nor detract from the case for additional Bank of England stimulus, leaving the British Pound at the mercy of broader risk trends.

Asia Session: What Happened

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:30

AUD

Westpac Consumer Confidence (MAR)

-5.0%

-

4.2%

23:30

AUD

Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (MAR)

96.1

-

101.1

23:50

JPY

BSI Large All Industry (QoQ) (1Q)

-2.7

-

-2.5

23:50

JPY

BSI Large Manufacturing (QoQ) (1Q)

-7.3

-

-6.1

0:30

AUD

Dwelling Starts (4Q)

-6.9%

-3.0%

-5.8% (R+)

2:00

NZD

Non Resident Bond Holdings (FEB)

60.3%

-

59.3%

4:30

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM) (JAN F)

1.9%

-

2.0%

4:30

JPY

Industrial Production (YoY) (JAN F)

3.4%

-

-1.2%

4:30

JPY

Capacity Utilization (MoM) (JAN F)

-1.3%

-

3.1%

6:00

JPY

Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (JAN F)

-8.6%

-

-8.6%

Euro Session: What to Expect

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

9:30

GBP

Claimant Count Rate (FEB)

5.0%

5.0%

Medium

9:30

GBP

Jobless Claims Change (FEB)

5.0K

6.9K

High

9:30

GBP

ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) (JAN)

8.4%

8.4%

Medium

9:30

GBP

Average Weekly Earnings (3M/YoY) (JAN)

1.9%

2.0%

Low

9:30

GBP

Weekly Earnings ex Bonus (3M/YoY) (JAN)

1.9%

2.0%

Low

10:00

EUR

Euro-Zone CPI (MoM) (FEB)

0.5%

-0.8%

Medium

10:00

EUR

Euro-Zone CPI (YoY) (FEB)

2.7%

2.7%

Medium

10:00

EUR

Euro-Zone CPI - Core (YoY) (FEB)

1.6%

1.5%

Low

10:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Industrial Production (MoM) (JAN)

0.6%

-1.2%

Medium

10:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Industrial Production (YoY) (JAN)

-0.7%

-2.0%

Medium

10:00

CHF

Credit Suisse ZEW Survey (Expectations) (MAR)

-

-21.2

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.2970

1.3166

GBPUSD

1.5564

1.5761

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.