FOREX: Euro Braces for German Vote on Greek Bailout, Money Supply Data

Talking Points

• Germany’s Bundestag to Vote on Second Greek Bailout Terms
• Euro Zone Money Supply Data in Focus on Economic Calendar
• US Dollar, Yen Rise on Haven Demand as Stocks Drop in Asia

The focus turns to the mechanics of implementing the second Greek bailout agreement to start the trading week. Athens has a long checklist of requirements to complete before the EU leaders’ summit beginning on Thursday and traders will be paying close attention to official commentary on progress. While EU policymakers have allowed Greece to miss ample deadlines before, their tolerance for Athens’ foot-dragging has likely eroded since the ECB provided EU banks with enough money (€489 billion) via its LTRO facility to prevent a default in the sickly country from turning into a region-wide credit squeeze in December. Greece has about €300 billion in outstanding government bonds according to data from the OECD.

With this in mind, a vote on the bailout’s terms in the Bundestag, the more powerful lower house of the German parliament, will be closely watched today. On the data front, Euro Zone Money Supply figures headline the docket. Expectations call for the annual growth rate to tick moderately higher to 1.8 percent in January. Money stock data is likely to take on added significance over the coming months as traders gauge the impact of new money injected via December’s ECB LTRO. A strong pickup in money growth is likely to feed expectations of Euro dilution and weigh on the single currency in a similar way that the Federal Reserve’s QE and QE2 programs proved punishing for the US Dollar.

The US Dollar (ticker: USDollar) and Japanese Yen staged a narrow recovery in overnight trade, adding as much as 0.2 and 0.3 percent on average respectively against their leading counterparts. The move appeared driven by safe-haven demand as Asian shares declined, with the MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark stock index fell 0.5 percent. The newswires attributed the selloff to worries about the impact of rapidly rising oil prices on the outlook for global growth. WTI crude has rallied for 10 consecutive trading days – testing the $110/barrel level – on worries of supply disruption amid escalating tension between Iran and Western powers. A decision by G20 finance ministers to delay additional funding to the IMF likely added to selling pressure. Europe hoped the increase in resources would boost the fund’s contribution to Eurozone crisis-fighting efforts.

Asia Session: What Happened

Euro Session: What to Expect

Critical Levels

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

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