News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Forex quotes reflect the price of different currencies at any point in time. Since a trader’s profit or loss is determined by movements in price, it is essential to develop a sound understanding of how to read currency pairs. Learn how to read quotes here: https://t.co/CNtqrKWDBY https://t.co/lvIUu5FHoq
  • The non-farm payroll (NFP) figure is a key economic indicator for the United States economy. It is also referred to as the monthly market mover. Find out why it has been given this nickname here: https://t.co/yOUVEEqhc5 https://t.co/bpKdIqGxsn
  • Looking for a new way to trade reversals? One of the most used reversal candle patterns is known as the Harami. Like most candlestick formation patterns, the Harami tells a story about sentiment in the market. Get better with trading reversals here: https://t.co/rfwUWJfbz9 https://t.co/jmcAIW4w5k
  • It’s important for traders to be familiar with FX spreads as they are the primary cost of trading currencies. Understand a pair's spread here: https://t.co/zEEUHZBx7g https://t.co/M9isuvnzqF
  • The British Pound is giving back some of its multi-month gains with some pairs testing notable support despite a positive fundamental backdrop. Get your market update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/6Ct5R0H41F https://t.co/c4rXmMjMrv
  • Dealing with the fear of missing out – or FOMO – is a highly valuable skill for traders. Not only can FOMO have a negative emotional impact, it can cloud judgment and overshadow logic. Learn how you can control FOMO in your trading here: https://t.co/lgDf5cVYOn https://t.co/4dhCP5pnxM
  • Gold is facing the neckline of a Double Bottom Pattern after bouncing off a confirmed longer-term trendline. Is a bullish reversal in order? Get your market update from @FxWestwater here: https://t.co/kLXZewWBMd https://t.co/w1Nu0z569m
  • Central banks often deem it necessary to intervene in the foreign exchange market to protect the value of their national currency. Learn how central bank intervention can impact your trading here: https://t.co/8G8mUX4so6 https://t.co/Gn41XsGktg
  • Rollover is the interest paid or earned for holding a currency spot position overnight. Learn how to earn rollover interest on your open positions here: https://t.co/SRsG8CxjEn https://t.co/2AR1qgx0tz
  • The New Zealand Dollar is in a tricky spot. On one hand, rising stocks can propel NZD. On the other, a dovish RBNZ ahead could cool bond yields as the government tackles soaring housing costs. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/5rjm2gr3EL https://t.co/aLwhWHMPqz
FOREX: Euro May Rise as Higher German IFO Print Trims Rate Cut Bets

FOREX: Euro May Rise as Higher German IFO Print Trims Rate Cut Bets

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points

  • Euro May Rise as German IFO Gauge Points to Firming Business Confidence
  • US Dollar Sold on Profit-Taking in Asia After Rising to the Highest in a Month
  • China Premier Wen May Set 2012 Economic Growth Target Below 8 Percent

The outlook for monetary policy is back in focus for the Euro in the aftermath of an agreement on the second Greek bailout package. Indeed, prices are showing an increasingly significantly correlation with the benchmark German 2-year bond yield. Today, this means the spotlight falls on the German IFO business confidence survey. Forecasts call for the Business Climate gauge – a composite of survey takers’ assessment of current conditions and future expectations – to hit a 7-month high in February.

The outcome may offer some near-term support for the single currency on expectations that cautiously improving economic metrics may ward off an ECB rate cut in the near term. Indeed, data compiled by Citigroup suggests Euro-area data releases have tended to surprise to the upside by increasing margins since mid-January. The markets now price in a 58 percent probability of a 25bps reduction in the benchmark lending rate at the next ECB policy meeting on March 8.

The US Dollar (ticker: USDollar) sold off against its top counterparts in overnight trade. The move appeared to have little basis in fundamental or risk-based trends, meaning it was likely driven by profit-takingafter the greenback soared to the highest in a month over the past two days. Indeed, stocks fell amid growth concerns in Asia, which would typically be expected to boost the safe-haven US currency. Rumors that Chinese Premier Wen Jiaobao will set a target of less than 8 percent for economic growth this year were reportedly behind pessimistic tone. A final announcement is due March 5.

Asia Session: What Happened

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

0:30

AUD

Average Weekly Wages (MoM) (NOV)

0.5%

1.0%

1.3% (R+)

0:30

AUD

Average Weekly Wages (YoY) (NOV)

4.3%

4.7%

5.3%

Euro Session: What to Expect

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

9:00

EUR

German IFO - Business Climate (FEB)

108.8

108.3

Medium

9:00

EUR

German IFO - Current Assessment (FEB)

116.5

116.3

Medium

9:00

EUR

German IFO – Expectations (FEB)

102

100.9

Medium

9:30

GBP

BBA Loans for House Purchase (JAN)

36250

36171

Low

11:00

GBP

CBI Trends Total Orders (FEB)

-13

-16

Low

11:00

GBP

CBI Trends Selling Prices (FEB)

12

13

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.3218

1.3354

GBPUSD

1.5607

1.3773

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES