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FOREX: Euro Debt Crisis in Focus as Finance Ministers Meeting Looms

FOREX: Euro Debt Crisis in Focus as Finance Ministers Meeting Looms

2012-01-23 09:30:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points

  • Eurozone Debt Crisis in Focus, All Eyes on EZ FinMin Summit
  • Germany, France Bill Sales Watched for Solvency Fear Cues
  • Fed Gauge of US Manufacturing Set to Hit Highest in 8 Months

The Eurozone debt crisis remains in focus as traders look to a meeting of the currency bloc’s finance ministers today for details of the much-anticipated “fiscal compact” aimed at introducing structural reforms to restore confidence and rein in borrowing costs ahead of a larger EU leaders’ summit next week. Also on the agenda is a final agreement on the degree of private-sector involvement (so-called “PSI”) in the Greek bailout. The agreement on a 50 percent haircut for the country’s creditors hashed out in October now looks like it may unravel.

The newswires point to a loose agreement whereby private creditors would accept losses of as much as 65-70 percent on their holdings of Greek debt but the particulars of a bond swap exchanging outstanding paper for new longer-dated maturities to help the country finance its immediate obligations remain elusive. If the talks fail, Greece may yet face a disorderly default that threatens to throw credit markets at large into turmoil. Indeed, a PSI agreement is vital to releasing a tranche of funding from the second EU/IMF bailout for the beleaguered country needed to cover €14.5 billion in debt maturing in March. The main point of contention is reportedly the coupon rate assigned to the new bonds.

Against this backdrop, France and Germany will tap the markets to sell €7.3 billion and €3 billion in shorter-term debt, respectively. Paris will be selling 91-, 168- and 350-day bills while Berlin will offer 12-month paper. As usual, traders will keep an eye on prevailing yield and bid-to-cover readings following the auctions for a reading on the degree of solvency stress in the markets. On the data front, a quiet European docket is likely to put the spotlight on the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index reading due out in the US, where forecasts call for the highest print in 8 months.

Asia Session: What Happened

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

0:30

AUD

Producer Price Index (QoQ) (4Q)

0.3%

0.4%

0.6%

0:30

AUD

Producer Price Index (YoY) (4Q)

2.9%

3.0%

2.7%

5:00

JPY

Supermarket Sales (YoY) (DEC)

-0.6%

-

-2.3%

Euro Session: What to Expect

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

7:45

EUR

French Own-Company Production Outlook (JAN)

-

-2

Low

7:45

EUR

French Production Outlook Indicator (JAN)

-36

-37

Low

7:45

EUR

French Business Confidence Indicator (JAN)

95

94

Low

8:00

CHF

Money Supply M3 (YoY) (DEC)

-

7.2%

Low

8:00

CHF

Real Estate Index Family Homes (4Q)

-

398.6

Low

10:15

EUR

Germany to Sell €3B in 12mo Bonds

-

-

Medium

14:00

EUR

France to Sell €7.3B in 91-350 day Bills

Medium

15:00

EUR

Euro Zone Consumer Confidence (JAN A)

-21.4

-21.1

Medium

16:00

EUR

Euro Zone Finance Ministers Meet in Brussels

-

-

High

Critical Levels

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.2883

1.2982

GBPUSD

1.5492

1.5620

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

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