News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Check out today's commodities briefing below! #Gold #CrudeOil #OPEC #XAUUSD #NFP - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/commodities/2020/12/04/Gold-Prices-Turned-Crude-Oil-Looking-to-Extend-Gains-After-OPEC-Deal.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/mjP8cR5y5C
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 94.41%, while traders in Wall Street are at opposite extremes with 73.14%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/8KhdKttaUT
  • Cyclical and non-cyclical stocks can help diversify a trader’s equity portfolio. Get your guide to understanding these stocks here: https://t.co/h7BKTd2J8N https://t.co/0lYdB9y82G
  • Forex Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇦CAD: 0.01% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.03% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.04% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.11% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.19% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.26% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/VAKvRq8IX7
  • Indices Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: FTSE 100: 0.33% US 500: 0.14% Wall Street: 0.10% France 40: -0.25% Germany 30: -0.30% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/dZyZx2pzQy
  • The Dollar is proving more responsive to fundamentals than risk assets like the S&P 500. Will Friday NFPs push $EURUSD above the midpoint of its historical range? My article and video for Friday: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2020/12/04/EURUSD-Faces-Its-Historical-Range-Midpoint-as-Resistance-with-Dollar-Sliding-Into-NFPs.html?ref-author=Kicklighter&QPID=917719&CHID=9 https://t.co/98OsWsb7ik
  • RBI sees FY21 GDP at -7.5% versus -9.5% prior -BBG
  • RBI's Das: RBI stands ready for more liquidity access measures, RBI taking measures for dampening volatility -BBG
  • @ZabelinDimitri https://t.co/G0vkDoZnAy
  • RBI's Das: Recovery signs are far from broad-based, MPC will monitor all threats to price stability. Near term financial risks contained -BBG
FOREX: Dollar Weakness to Continue, Merkel / Lagarde Meeting on Tap

FOREX: Dollar Weakness to Continue, Merkel / Lagarde Meeting on Tap

2012-01-10 07:51:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
Share:

Talking Points

  • US Dollar Slumps as Stocks Rise in Asia, Denting Safety Demand
  • Merkel/Lagarde Meeting, Greek Bill Sale Lead European Calendar
  • S&P 500 Index Futures Hint Recovery in Risk Appetite to Continue

The US Dollar (ticker: USDollar) traded broadly lower in overnight trade, down as much as 0.3 percent on average against its leading counterparts, as gains on Asian stock exchanges sapped demand for the safe-haven currency. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional equity benchmark index rose 1.1 percent after US Consumer Credit rose to $20.4 billion – the highest in at least 4 years – while Chinese Imports grew at the slowest pace in 26 months. The former release suggested demand was picking up in Asia’s go-to export market while the latter hinted Beijing may press forward with additional reserve ratio requirement cuts after reducing the rate to 21 percent in December. Not surprisingly, the stocks-correlated Australian, New Zealand and Canadian Dollars outperformed.

Looking ahead, the economic calendar is quiet in European hours. Greece will sell €1.25B in 182-day bills, but the short tenor of the securities on offer and the already well-established predicament facing Athens at least over the near term is likely to keep the outcome from being particularly market-moving. Indeed, Eurozone debt crisis have been focused on larger economies (Spain, Italy and to some extent France) too big to be bailed with existing rescue facilities, of which Greece is clearly not a part. A meeting between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde may prove to be more interesting. The German leader met with her French counterpart yesterday, where the two said they may complete new budget rules for the Euro area by the January 30 European Union summit, one month ahead of schedule.

On balance, while yesterday’s Merkel/Sarkozy meeting was not a game-changer in that traders learned little in terms concrete policy prescriptions for containing the debt crisis, the outcome likewise didn’t add anything substantially more negative into the equation. Expectations of a similar outcome to the Merkel/Lagarde outing combined with hopeful sentiment ahead of the fourth-quarter corporate earnings reporting season against a backdrop of improving US economic data appear to be fueling profit-taking on risk-aversion bets. This seems likely to continue weighing on the US Dollar over the near term after net speculative long positions on the go-to safe haven currency held near the highest in close to three months last week. Indeed, S&P 500 stock index futures are pushing firmly higher in late Asian trade, hinting the pick-up in risky assets is likely to continue.

Asia Session: What Happened

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:45

NZD

Building Permits (MoM) (NOV)

-6.4%

3.3%

10.7%

23:00

NZD

QV House Prices (YoY) (DEC)

2.4%

-

1.7%

0:01

GBP

RICS House Price Balance (DEC)

-16.0%

-19.0%

-17.0%

0:01

GBP

BRC Sales Like-For-Like (YoY) (DEC)

2.2%

0.5%

-1.6%

0:30

AUD

Building Approvals (MoM) (NOV)

8.4%

6.0%

-10.0% (R+)

0:30

AUD

Building Approvals (YoY) (NOV)

-18.9%

-19.8%

-29.9% (R-)

3:00

CNY

Trade Balance ($) (DEC)

16.52B

8.80B

14.53B

3:00

CNY

Imports (YoY) (DEC)

11.8%

18.0%

22.1%

3:00

CNY

Exports (YoY) (DEC)

13.4%

13.4%

13.8%

Euro Session: What to Expect

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

7:30

EUR

Bank of France Business Sentiment (DEC)

95

95

Low

7:45

EUR

French Manufacturing Production (YoY) (NOV)

-0.1%

2.6%

Low

7:45

EUR

French Industrial Production (MoM) (NOV)

-0.1%

0.0%

Low

7:45

EUR

French Industrial Production (YoY) (NOV)

-0.4%

1.8%

Low

7:45

EUR

French Manufacturing Production (MoM) (NOV)

-0.4%

0.0%

Low

10:00

EUR

Greece to Sell €1.25B in 182-day Bills

-

-

Medium

19:00

EUR

Germany’s Merkel, IMF’s Lagarde Meet in Berlin

-

-

High

Critical Levels

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.2692

1.2859

GBPUSD

1.5413

1.5515

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES