News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • Heads Up:🇮🇩 GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q2) due at 04:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 6.57% Previous: -0.74% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-08-05
  • Heads Up:🇮🇩 GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q2) due at 04:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 2.94% Previous: -0.96% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-08-05
  • The US Dollar seems to be losing its momentum against ASEAN currencies as of late. Could this be another top in USD/SGD, USD/THB, USD/PHP and USD/IDR? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/rVBKBuhhAb https://t.co/xPtI6toGbx
  • Commodities Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.36% Gold: -0.11% Silver: -0.18% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/RTXVILUbVT
  • This week's non-farm payrolls (NFP) will likely be key to gauge the direction of gold as markets look ahead to the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. Get your market update from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/WmTrqe0xJN https://t.co/5W9yENUJyw
  • RT @FxWestwater: #Gold Price Outlook: $XAU Stumbles on Fed-Induced US Dollar Strength, NFPs Eyed Link: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/commodities/2021/08/05/Gold-Price-Outlook-XAU-Stumbles-on-Fed-Induced-US-Dollar-Strength-NFPs-Eyed.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Westwater&utm_campaign=twr #NFP #USD h…
  • Forex Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇦🇺AUD: 0.08% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.04% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.03% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.03% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.07% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.16% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/2KsQ1fvpJb
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 93.98%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 79.17%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/WJB3ALH1Ft
  • RT @Yeap_IG: #IGMorningthoughts: - #VIX testing support from upward trendline - Mixed signals for jobs report tomorrow. Both #ISM #PMI empl…
  • Poll from @Reuters - major FX pairs outlook for the next 12-months. https://t.co/VOQAfhMgfR
FOREX: Euro Debt Crisis Fears Grow Anew, French Bond Sale in Focus

FOREX: Euro Debt Crisis Fears Grow Anew, French Bond Sale in Focus

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points

  • US Dollar Gains as Asian Stocks Decline, Stocking Safe Haven Demand
  • Australian Trade Balance, Services PMI Data Point to Slowing Growth
  • French Bond Auction in Focus as Eurozone Debt Crisis Fears Resurface
  • S&P 500 Index Futures Favor Risk Aversion, ADP Jobs Report on Tap

The US Dollar (ticker: USDollar) pushed higher against its leading counterparts in overnight trade as Asian stock exchanges fell, stocking demand for the go-to safe haven currency. The sentiment-linkedAustralian Dollar bore the brunt of the selloff – down as much as percent against its US namesake – after the AiG Performance of Service Index printed below the 50 “boom-bust” level, showing the non-manufacturing sector contracted for a third consecutive month, while the Trade Balance surplus narrowed to the smallest in 9 months as exports to China slumped 15.8 percent. The East Asian giant is Australia’s largest trading partner.

Looking ahead, a quiet economic calendar keeps the focus on Eurozone debt crisis issues, with the spotlight turning to a Frenchbond auction. The currency bloc’s second-largest economy is set to sell 2021-2041 paper, with traders keeping a close eye on average yield levels and bid-to-cover readings – a measure of demand – to get a sense of sovereign solvency fears in the region as Eurozone countries face the need to refinance a whopping €157 billion in maturing debtjust in the first three months 2012.

The 3-month Euribor-OIS spread, a measure of liquidity risk, rose for the first time in a week yesterday while the ECB reported that banks parked a record €453 billion in its deposit facility yesterday. This means banks remain jittery and reluctant to funnel any of the nearly €500 billion they borrowed via the central bank’s 3-year LTRO into the real economy. On balance, this points to renewed deterioration in credit markets and may produce a disappointing outcome at the debt sale, weighing on the Euro.

On the sentiment front, S&P 500 stock index futures are trading meaningfully lower in late Asian hours, hinting at the return of risk aversion that offers a lifeline to US Dollar at the expense of stocks-correlated currencies. The US ADP Employment gauge will enter into the picture in the afternoon and may stoke volatility as traders position for Friday’s all-important official jobs report. Expectations call for an increase of 178,000 in December compared with 206,000 recorded in the preceding month, alluding to a slowdown in hiring. Interestingly, forecasts for official overall nonfarm and private-sector payrolls paint the opposite picture, showing hiring will accelerate.

Asia Session: What Happened

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:30

AUD

AiG Performance of Service Index (DEC)

49.0

-

47.7

23:50

JPY

Monetary Base (YoY) (DEC)

13.5%

-

19.5%

0:30

AUD

Trade Balance (A$) (NOV)

1380M

1650M

1418M

2:30

CNY

China HSBC Services PMI (DEC)

52.5

-

52.5

5:00

JPY

Vehicle Sales (YoY) (DEC)

23.5%

-

24.1%

Euro Session: What to Expect

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

7:00

EUR

German Retail Sales (MoM) (NOV)

0.2%

0.7%

Low

7:00

EUR

German Retail Sales (YoY) (NOV)

0.7%

-0.4%

Low

7:45

EUR

French Consumer Confidence Indicator (DEC)

80

79

Low

9:00

EUR

Italian Unemployment Rate s.a. (3Q)

8.1%

8.0%

Low

9:00

EUR

Italian Unemployment Rate s.a. (NOV P)

8.5%

8.5%

Low

9:30

GBP

Purchasing Manager Index Services (DEC)

51.5

52.1

Medium

9:30

GBP

Official Reserves (Changes) (DEC)

-

-$249M

Low

10:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Industrial New Orders (YoY) (OCT)

3.3%

1.6%

Low

10:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Industrial New Orders (MoM) (OCT)

2.5%

-6.4%

Low

10:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (MoM) (NOV)

0.1%

0.1%

Low

10:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) (NOV)

5.2%

5.5%

Low

10:00

EUR

France to Sell 2021-2041 Bonds

-

-

High

Critical Levels

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.2796

1.3045

GBPUSD

1.5534

1.5666

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES