We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Forex Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇦CAD: 0.01% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.04% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.09% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.12% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.12% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.22% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/GtO4ITHwT0
  • Indices Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 0.71% Wall Street: 0.67% France 40: -0.18% Germany 30: -0.46% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/4ZVogLkGM6
  • My trading video for today: 'S&P 500 and #Dow Suffer Sharpest Tumble Since August 2015, Closer to Self-Sustaining Risk Off' https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2020/02/26/SP-500-and-Dow-Suffer-Sharpest-Tumble-Since-August-2015-Closer-to-Self-Sustaining-Risk-Off-.html?ref-author=Kicklighter&QPID=917719&CHID=9 https://t.co/tMmopEmE64
  • The $GBP recoiled from chart resistance against the US Dollar, setting the stage for prices to resume a bearish trend reversal triggered mid-January. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here:https://t.co/lVpyZkIfJt https://t.co/oQs8Ty4Eau
  • The Japanese #Yen may rise as the #SP500 outlook risks shifting more bearish on signals in trader positioning. What is the road ahead for $USDJPY given the outbreak of the #coronavirus? - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2020/02/26/Yen-Outlook-Bullish-USDJPY-May-Fall-as-SP-500-Sees-Dip-Buying.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/ynFwtuzd6P
  • That's more or less a 268% increase after the government announced expansionary measures such as giving HK$10k to each adult permanent resident... https://t.co/kIM4QNkHuw
  • Hong Kong 2019/20 fiscal deficit at HK$37.9b, 2020/21 deficit at a record HK$139.1b -BBG
  • If you missed this week's session on IG Client Sentiment where I discussed the Japanese Yen and #SP500 outlook, check out the recording on YouTube here $USDJPY $AUDJPY #SPX - https://t.co/6VYWaVuJgZ
  • - Copper price outlook gloomy as #COVID-19 intimidates Chinese demand - Coronavirus threatens to derail global stabilization, pressure commodity - Copper futures have plunged over 10 percent, falling to 17-year uptrend https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2020/02/26/Copper-Outlook-Bleak-as-COVID-19-Threatens-China-Economy.html
  • The $JPY has lost out to a broadly resurgent US Dollar, with a clearly dwindling band of Yen bulls left to hope that the most recent rise has become overextended. Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX here:https://t.co/7Ndm5jiOi7 https://t.co/iXFakOQKJB
FOREX: Euro Outlook Hinges on ECB LTRO Allotment, BOE Minutes on Tap

FOREX: Euro Outlook Hinges on ECB LTRO Allotment, BOE Minutes on Tap

2011-12-21 07:07:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
Share:

Talking Points

  • US Dollar Sold as Asian Stocks Followed Wall Street Higher
  • Euro May Rise on Signs of Strong ECB 3-Year LTRO Demand
  • Bank of England Minutes Unlikely to Boost QE Expectations

The US Dollar (ticker: USDollar) traded broadly lower overnight as Asian stock exchanges followed Wall Street higher, weighing on the safe-haven currency. The news wires chalked up the pick-up to unexpectedly strong German IFO as well as US Housing Starts andBuilding Permits, which were said to collectively temper fears about the slowdown in global economic growth. Lower borrowing costs at a Spanish bill auction also helped, offering a bit of a respite from Eurozone debt crisis fears. In truth, while none of these events amounted to anything materially game-changing. Indeed, the improvement in US data has been underway since June while comparing the IFO Expectations and Current Conditions components points to downswing in business activity over the coming 6 months, albeit a less severe one than economists expected. Finally, the short tenor of the Spanish bond auction is hardly indicative of the degree of funding stress likely to arise as the bond expiry calendar fills up next year. With this in mind, year-end profit taking seems to be a far more plausible catalyst.

Looking ahead, all eyes are on the European Central Bank as policymakers announce the allotment results of its new 3-year long-term refinancing operation (LTRO), a program offering cheap loans to banks experiencing cash shortages courtesy of the turmoil in Eurozone debt markets over recent months. Signs of strong demand are likely to prove initially supportive for the Euro in that the probability of a credit crunch in the immediate term would be relatively diminished but likely transform into something negative with time as traders take stock of the depth of the liquidity shortfall and the degree of reliance on ECB funding in the banking system. Alternatively, soft uptake will probably produce the opposite effect, producing downward pressure on the single currency as an initial outcome followed by rosier sentiments in the weeks ahead.

On the economic calendar, minutes from December’sBank of Englandmonetary policy meeting are in the spotlight. Traders will focus on the voting pattern across the rate-setting MPC committee to gauge whether a consensus toward expanding quantitative easing (QE) is starting to emerge. Significant changes to the outlook are unlikely this time around however, with policymakers once again voting unanimously to maintain the benchmark interest rate and asset purchase target unchanged. The tone of recent economic data has pointed to stability rather than deterioration. In fact, economists’ consensus forecast for 2012 UK economic growth (as polled by Bloomberg) has been essentially unchanged since late October, ending a dramatic slide beginning in July. This suggests Governor Mervyn King and company are likely to remain in wait-and-see mode at least for now.

Asia Session: What Happened

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:45

NZD

Current Account Balance (3Q)

-4.599B

-3.750B

-0.844B (R+)

21:45

NZD

Current Account Deficit-GDP Ratio (3Q)

-4.3%

-3.9%

-3.7%

21:45

NZD

Net Migration s.a. (NOV)

-50

-

-650

23:30

AUD

Westpac Leading Index (MoM) (OCT)

0.1%

-

-0.3%

23:50

JPY

Merchandise Trade Balance Total (¥) (NOV)

-684.7B

-484.7B

-280.2B (R-)

23:50

JPY

Adj Merchandise Trade Balance (¥) (NOV)

-537.9B

-305.7B

-495.7B (R-)

23:50

JPY

Merchandise Trade Exports (YoY) (NOV)

-4.5%

-4.3%

-3.8% (R-)

23:50

JPY

Merchandise Trade Imports (YoY) (NOV)

11.4%

8.3%

17.9%

0:01

GBP

GfK Consumer Confidence Indicator (DEC)

-33

-32

-31

2:00

NZD

Credit Card Spending (YoY) (NOV)

3.2%

-

7.8% (R-)

2:00

NZD

Credit Card Spending SA MoM (NOV)

-3.4%

-

2.6%

3:16

JPY

Bank of Japan Rate Decision

0.10%

0.10%

0.10%

Euro Session: What to Expect

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

7:00

EUR

German Import Price Index (MoM) (NOV)

-

-0.3%

Low

7:00

EUR

German Import Price Index (YoY) (NOV)

5.3%

6.8%

Low

8:00

CHF

Money Supply M3 (YoY) (NOV)

-

8.2%

Medium

9:00

EUR

Italian GDP s.a. and w.d.a. (QoQ) (Q3 F)

-0.2%

0.3%

Low

9:00

EUR

Italian GDP s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (Q3 F)

0.4%

0.8%

Low

9:30

GBP

Public Finances (PSNCR) (Pounds) (NOV)

10.3B

-0.6B

Low

9:30

GBP

Public Sector Net Borrowing (Pounds) (NOV)

16.6B

3.4B

Low

9:30

GBP

PSNB ex Interventions (NOV)

19.7B

6.5B

Low

9:30

GBP

Bank of England Meeting Minutes

-

-

High

10:15

EUR

ECB Announces 3yr LTRO Allotment

-

-

High

10:15

EUR

ECB Announces 3mo Repo Allotment

-

-

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.3007

1.3207

GBPUSD

1.5540

1.5827

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.