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FOREX: Dollar, Yen Rise as China Backs Away From EU Debt Aid

FOREX: Dollar, Yen Rise as China Backs Away From EU Debt Aid

2011-09-14 07:00:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • UK Jobless Claims to Show First Improvement in Five Months
  • Risk Appetite Waiting for US Retail Sales Data to Set Direction
  • US Dollar, Japanese Yen Advance as China Backs Off EU Aid

The US Dollar and Japanese Yen outperformed on safe-haven demand in overnight trade as stocks sank across Asian exchanges after China expressed reluctance to bail out debt-strapped European countries. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional equity index slumped 1.7 percent after Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said countries relying on the East Asian giant as a financier of last resort must put their own houses in order”. Rumors that China might step in to buy Italian debt having similarly purchased Spanish, Greek and Portuguese bonds emerged earlier in the week. The sentiment-sensitive Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars bore the brunt of risk aversion in the FX space.

On the sentiment front, S&P 500 stock index futures are trading flat in late Asian hours, pointing to indecision as markets brace for the upcoming US Retail Sales report. Median forecasts call for receipts to rise 0.2 percent in August, marking the weakest reading in three months. However, a Citibank gauge of US economic data surprises suggests indicators of performance in the world’s top economy have been steadily improving since hitting a bottom in early June, hinting there is a scope for a better-than-expected outcome. The result will be interpreted in light of next week’s FOMC monetary policy meeting and its implications for the likelihood that another aggressive round of stimulus will be unveiled to bolster the increasingly anemic recovery.

UK Jobless Claims figures headline the economic calendar in European trading hours, with expectations calling for applications for benefits to rise 35,000 in August. The result would mark the first deceleration in claims growth in five months, although the Claimant Count (a proxy for the jobless rate) is expected to rise to a 19-month high of 5 percent. The outcome is likely to be interpreted in the context of increasingly dovish Bank of England monetary policy expectations, with a soft print likely to weigh heavily on the British Pound amid rising bets on a second round of quantitative easing, and vice versa.

Asia Session: What Happened

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

0:30

AUD

Westpac Consumer Confidence (MoM) (SEP)

8.1%

-

-3.5%

0:30

AUD

Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (SEP)

96.9

-

89.6

1:30

AUD

Dwelling Starts (2Q)

-4.7%

2.0%

3.3% (R+)

3:00

NZD

Non Resident Bond Holdings (AUG)

62.5%

-

60.1%

4:00

JPY

Tokyo Condominium Sales (YoY) (AUG)

1.7%

-

-1.3%

4:30

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM) (JUL F)

0.4%

-

0.6%

4:30

JPY

Industrial Production (YoY) (JUL F)

-3.0%

-

-2.8%

4:30

JPY

Capacity Utilization (MoM) (JUL)

0.6%

-

5.2%

6:00

JPY

Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (AUG F)

15.2%

-

15.3%

Euro Session: What to Expect

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

7:15

CHF

Producer & Import Prices (MoM) (AUG)

-0.4%

-0.7%

Low

7:15

CHF

Producer & Import Prices (YoY) (AUG)

-1.1%

-0.6%

Low

8:30

GBP

Claimant Count Rate (AUG)

5.0%

4.9%

Medium

8:30

GBP

Jobless Claims Change (AUG)

35.0K

37.1K

High

8:30

GBP

Average Weekly Earnings (3M/YoY) (JUL)

2.7%

2.6%

Medium

8:30

GBP

Weekly Earnings ex Bonus (3M/YoY) (JUL)

2.1%

2.2%

Low

8:30

GBP

ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) (JUL)

7.9%

7.9%

Medium

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (JUL)

4.6%

2.6%

Medium

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (JUL)

1.5%

-0.8%

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.3477

1.3759

GBPUSD

1.5588

1.5845

For real time news and analysis, please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/real_time_news

To receive future articles by email, please contact Ilya at ispivak@dailyfx.com

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