We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides Download
EUR/USD
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • U.S. Futures Update [delayed]: Dow Jones (-1.25%) S&P 500 (-1.33%) NASDAQ (-2.00%) -BBG
  • The US #Dollar technical outlook is still pointing higher against the Malaysian #Ringgit and Philippine Peso following near-term weakness. What is the road ahead for $USDMYR and $USDPHP #ASEAN - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/special_report/2020/02/28/Dollar-Technical-Forecast-in-USDMYR-and-USDPHP-Favors-Upside.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/sAwqdqJ3zG
  • The #ASX 200 stock index hit record highs this year but those days seem unlikely to return anytime soon as even equity buckles before the #coronavirus outbreak. Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX here: https://t.co/HlZhPBsZ6X https://t.co/EeRUrCDglZ
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.04%, while traders in USD/CAD are at opposite extremes with 68.37%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/0S4GwxHQXV
  • US President Donald Trump: Coronavirus spreading "very slowly" in the country -BBG
  • Forex Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.57% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.01% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.03% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.39% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.67% 🇳🇿NZD: -1.09% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/Y47PbP6HgC
  • Indices Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: -1.78% Wall Street: -1.83% France 40: -3.45% Germany 30: -3.87% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/bC3idazvkg
  • 🇯🇵 JPY Housing Starts (YoY) (JAN), Actual: -10.1% Expected: -5.4% Previous: -7.9% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-02-28
  • 🇯🇵 JPY Housing Starts (YoY) (JAN), Actual: -10.1% Expected: -5.3% Previous: -7.9% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-02-28
  • 🇯🇵 JPY Construction Orders (YoY) (JAN), Actual: -17.0% Expected: N/A Previous: 21.4% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-02-28
FOREX: Euro at Risk on Expectations of Dovish Turn at ECB

FOREX: Euro at Risk on Expectations of Dovish Turn at ECB

2011-09-08 07:05:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
Share:

Talking Points

  • Euro May Resume Decline as ECB Moves Away from Hawkish Posture
  • BOE Rate Decision Likely Another Non-Event as Policy Remains on Hold
  • S&P 500 Index Futures Accelerating Lower, Promising US Dollar Gains
  • Australian Dollar Falls as Employment Unexpectedly Shrinks in August

Monetary policy announcements from the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are in focus in the European trading session. In the UK, another non-event is likely despite the dovish shift on the rate-setting MPC committee revealed in the minutes from last month’s sit-down. Another decision to keep rates and the size of asset purchases unchanged will likely mean policymakers shy away from issuing a statement yet again, leaving traders to await further guidance when minutes from this meeting cross the wires in two weeks.

Meanwhile, the ECB announcement carries significant market-moving potential. While the benchmark rate is expected to remain unchanged at 1.5 percent this time around, the dramatic deterioration in Euro Zone economic data coupled with deepening sovereign risk fears in August hint bank President Jean-Claude Trichet and company may signal a neutral shift in policy having embarked on a tightening campaign in April. Needless to say, such an outcome would weigh heavily on the Euro, confirming the recent unwinding of traders’ priced-in rate hike expectations for the year ahead.

On the sentiment front, S&P 500 stock index futures are gaining traction to the downside to hint risk aversion is set to return after a brief respite yesterday, promising to boost safe-haven demand and breathe new life into the US Dollar. The spotlight will turn on Federal Reserve President Ben Bernanke just after the closing bell on European bourses as he speaks about the outlook for the US economy, with traders keen to see if the dovish sentiments voiced by other bank officials yesterday are echoed by the one man who’s vote actually counts in setting monetary policy as QE3 speculation continues to build.

The US Dollar corrected broadly higher in overnight trade after slumping 0.7 percent in the 24 hours through the close of the North American trade to yield the largest daily loss in a week. The Australian Dollar bore the brunt of the greenback’s recovery after Augusts’ jobs report proved deeply disappointing, showing the economy unexpectedly shed 9,700 jobs while the unemployment rate rose to 5.3 percent, the highest in 10 months. The result marked the second consecutive month of losses for the labor market and sank the antipodean currency as traders trimmed RBA interest rate expectations.

Asia Session: What Happened

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:45

NZD

Value of All Buildings s.a. (2Q)

-6.6%

-0.5%

-6.6% (R-)

23:50

JPY

Bank Lending Banks ex-Trust (AUG)

-0.5%

-

-0.6%

23:50

JPY

Bank Lending incl Trusts (YoY) (AUG)

-0.5%

-

-0.6% (R-)

23:50

JPY

Current Account Total (¥) (JUL)

990.2B

1175.8B

526.9B

23:50

JPY

Adjusted Current Account Total (¥) (JUL)

752.5B

990.8B

922.8B

23:50

JPY

Current Account Balance (YoY) (JUL)

-42.4%

-32.5%

-50.2%

23:50

JPY

Trade Balance – BOP Basis (Yen) (JUL)

123.3B

149.1B

131.5B

23:50

JPY

Machine Orders (MoM) (JUL)

-8.2%

-4.2%

7.7%

23:50

JPY

Machine Orders (YoY) (JUL)

4.0%

8.3%

17.9%

1:30

AUD

Employment Change (AUG)

-9.7K

10K

-4.1K (R-)

1:30

AUD

Unemployment Rate (AUG)

5.3%

5.1%

5.1%

1:30

AUD

Full Time Employment Change (AUG)

-12.6K

-

-26.4K (R-)

1:30

AUD

Part Time Employment Change (AUG)

2.9K

-

22.3K (R+)

1:30

AUD

Participation Rate (AUG)

65.6%

65.6%

65.6%

2:22

JPY

Tokyo Avg Office Vacancies (%) (AUG)

8.65%

-

8.76%

4:30

JPY

Bankruptcies (YoY) (AUG)

-3.6%

-

1.4%

5:00

JPY

Eco Watchers Survey: Current (AUG)

47.3

-

52.6

5:00

JPY

Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (AUG)

47.1

-

48.5

Euro Session: What to Expect

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

5:30

EUR

French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) (2Q F)

0.4%

0.4%

Low

5:45

CHF

Unemployment Rate (AUG)

2.8%

2.8%

Medium

5:45

CHF

Unemployment Rate s.a. (AUG)

3.0%

3.0%

Medium

6:00

EUR

German Exports s.a. (MoM) (JUL)

0.5%

-1.2%

Low

6:00

EUR

German Imports s.a. (MoM) (JUL)

0.3%

0.3%

Low

6:00

EUR

German Current Account (€) (JUL)

10.0B

11.9B

Low

6:00

EUR

German Trade Balance (€) (JUL)

11.5B

12.7B

Medium

6:30

EUR

Bank of France Business Sentiment (AUG)

97

98

Low

6:45

EUR

French Trade Balance (€) (JUL)

-5900M

-5598M

Low

11:00

GBP

BOE Asset Purchase Target

200B

200B

High

11:00

GBP

Bank of England Rate Decision

0.50%

0.50%

High

11:45

EUR

European Central Bank Rate Decision

1.50%

1.50%

High

Critical Levels

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.3923

1.4168

GBPUSD

1.5741

1.6048

For real time news and analysis, please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/real_time_news

To receive future articles by email, please contact Ilya at ispivak@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.