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FOREX: US Dollar Pullback Hinted as S&P 500 Futures Trim Losses

FOREX: US Dollar Pullback Hinted as S&P 500 Futures Trim Losses

2011-09-06 06:35:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • Rebound in S&P 500 Futures May Point to US Dollar Pullback
  • RBA Keeps Rates on Hold at 4.75 Percent, Signals Neutral Tone
  • Aussie, NZ Dollars Slide as Risk Aversion Continues Overnight
  • Euro Zone Q2 GDP Revision, German Factory Orders on Tap
  • US Service Sector to Grow at Slowest Pace in 19 Months in Aug

S&P 500 stock index futures are mounting a spirited recovery in late Asian hours having traded lower for most of the session (see below), hinting risk appetite may rebound as North American financial markets come back online having been closed for the Labor Day holiday on Monday. A bounce to relieve short-term oversold conditions is not unreasonable at this point after global shares (excluding the US) slid 3.6 percent on average yesterday, marking the largest single-day decline in over two weeks and coming on the heels of a formidable selloff on Friday. Needless to say, such an outcome would bode ill for the safe-haven US Dollar, Japanese Yen and Swiss Francagainst their leading counterparts.

On the economic data front, the docket is relatively quiet in Europe. A revised set of second-quarter Euro Zone Gross Domestic Product figures is expected to confirm the region’s economy added just 0.2 percent in the three months through June, marking the weakest reading since the currency bloc emerged from recession two years ago. Meanwhile, German Factory Orders are forecast to fall for the first time in four months, underscoring signs of slowdown across the G10 economies. The US ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite reading will enter the spotlight in the afternoon, with expectations calling for service-sector growth to register at the weakest pace in 19 months in August.

The sentiment-linked Australian and New Zealand Dollars continued to see downward pressure overnight as Asian stock exchanges extended yesterday’s selloff. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional equity index fell 1.7 percent as headlines out of Europe remained ominous, with reports of a rift between Greece and the IMF circling the newswires. Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported that German Chancellor Angela Merkel told her cabinet Greece will not get aid payments unless it meets the terms of the rescue, which sounds like familiar jawboning that would have likely gone unnoticed if not for a separate report citing officials in Athens saying they will miss their budget-deficit targets.

The Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates on hold at 4.75 percent as expected. RBA Governor Glenn Stevens said that while economic growth is likely to be “somewhat weaker than was expected a few months ago,” overall performance is still expected to be “at trend or higher, unless the world economic outlook continues to deteriorate.” On the subject of inflation, Stevens said that headline readings are likely to tick lower toward the end of the year as “temporary weather-related effects reverse” but cautioned that the bank remains concerned about medium-term trends. The RBA chief concluded with a pledge to “continue to assess carefully the evolving outlook for growth and inflation.” On balance, the statement painted the central bank as uncommitted and lingering in wait-and-see mode for the time being.

Asia Session: What Happened

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:01

GBP

BRC Sales Like-For-Like (YoY) (AUG)

-

0.6%

1:30

AUD

Current Account Balance (AUD) (2Q)

-7419M

-7100M

-11115M (R-)

1:30

AUD

Australia Net Exports of GDP (2Q)

-0.5%

0.1%

-2.4%

1:30

AUD

Investment Lending (JUL)

1.9%

-

-4.5% (R-)

1:30

AUD

Home Loans (MoM) (JUL)

1.0%

1.5%

0.6% (R+)

1:30

AUD

Owner-Occup. Home Loans (MoM) (JUL)

1.4%

-

0.2% (R+)

4:30

AUD

Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision

4.75%

4.75%

4.75%

Euro Session: What to Expect

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

7:00

CHF

Foreign Currency Reserves (AUG)

-

182.1B

Low

7:15

CHF

Consumer Price Index (MoM) (AUG)

-0.2%

-0.8%

Medium

7:15

CHF

Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG)

0.3%

0.5%

Medium

7:15

CHF

CPI - EU Harmonized (MoM) (AUG)

-

-0.8%

Low

7:15

CHF

CPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) (AUG)

-

0.3%

Low

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ) (2Q P)

0.2%

0.2%

Medium

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (YoY) (2Q P)

1.7%

1.7%

Medium

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Household Consumption (QoQ) (2Q P)

-0.1%

0.2%

Low

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Gross Fixed Capital (QoQ) (2Q P)

0.8%

1.9%

Low

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Government Expenditure (QoQ) (2Q P)

0.1%

0.5%

Low

10:00

EUR

German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (JUL)

9.8%

9.5%

Medium

10:00

EUR

German Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) (JUL)

-1.5%

1.8%

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.4032

1.4285

GBPUSD

1.6052

1.6269

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