We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides Download
EUR/USD
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Commodities Update: As of 15:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.80% Silver: 0.17% Oil - US Crude: -4.55% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/Sq3gjZwe2J
  • The Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast for Q1 rises to 2.7%, previously 2.6% $SPX $DXY
  • US Dollar Price Analysis: USD Snaps Back, Will Buyers Bid Support? https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/drivers_of_price_action/2020/02/27/US-Dollar-Price-Analysis-USD-Snaps-Back-Will-Buyers-Bid-Support-JS.html $USD https://t.co/f5eGGnH23P
  • Tune in to @PeterHanksFX 's #webinar at 11:00 AM ET/4:00 PM GMT to learn how to identify trends with trader #sentiment. Register here: https://t.co/MqVMi2INbJ https://t.co/ABeHjpwszw
  • 🇺🇸 USD Pending Home Sales (YoY) (JAN), Actual: 6.7% Expected: 2.1% Previous: 6.8% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-02-27
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.93%, while traders in USD/CAD are at opposite extremes with 67.08%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/hLfhItcNTG
  • Commodities Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.95% Silver: 0.57% Oil - US Crude: -4.95% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/8tSEvwOXf7
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 USD Pending Home Sales (YoY) (JAN) due at 15:00 GMT (15min), Actual: N/A Expected: N/A Previous: 6.8% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-02-27
  • $SPX gaps lower on the US session open, now over 10% off of highs https://t.co/njDc20ZY9x
  • $EURUSD: When sellers went on the attack in early-February, support could hold no longer, and bears punched through that zone as if it didn’t exist on the way down to fresh two-year-lows. Get your EUR/USD technical analysis from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/PCuM2tKVop https://t.co/WmImeDvH0A
FOREX: Dollar Reaction to Jobs Data to Be Shaped by Fed Easing Hopes

FOREX: Dollar Reaction to Jobs Data to Be Shaped by Fed Easing Hopes

2011-09-02 06:05:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
Share:

Talking Points

  • Dollar to View US Jobs Data Through Prism of Fed Easing Prospects
  • Swiss Franc, Japanese Yen Rise as Asian Stock Exchange Flounder

The safe-haven Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen outperformed in overnight trade as market sentiment turned defensive ahead of the upcoming US Employmentreport. Expectations call for the economy to add 68,000 jobs in August, marking a slowdown from the preceding month and leaving the unemployment rate at 9.1 percent. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional equity index slumped as much as 1.1 percent and S&P 500 stock index futures lost as much as 0.7 percent ahead of the outcome. The typically safety-linked US Dollar put in a mixed performance as traders balanced the negative growth implications of the outcome – which ought to have bolstered the greenback – with the possibility that a dour result may hasten the arrival of Federal Reserve stimulus.

Evaluating the possible scenarios for the jobs report’s impact on currency markets is a tricky endeavor. Indeed, while US economic data flow has been broadly positive since the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s August meeting rekindled bets that Ben Bernanke and company will announce additional support measures at the September 20-21 FOMC sit-down, the response from risk sentiment trends has been uneven (as evidenced by the seesawing S&P 500 benchmark stock index). Meanwhile, the US Dollar has seen better directional conviction, edging higher presumably because a string of not-so-terrible data means the Fed is more likely to stay on the sidelines this month.

With this in mind, it is tempting to say that a payrolls reading that beats consensus estimates (or at least is not materially worse than what is expected) is likely to give the greenback a lift against its leading counterparts into the week-end. Alternatively, a dismal outcome seems likely to sink the benchmark currency despite its negative connotation for risk appetite as traders conclude the Fed will indeed unveil some sort of monetary policy assistance later in the month. Having said that, trading volumes have withered substantially since the beginning of August and the proximity of a three-day weekend for Wall Street (with trading closed for the Labor Day holiday on Monday) will only compound thinning liquidity conditions, opening the door for an erratic response.

Asia Session: What Happened

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:50

JPY

Monetary Base (YoY) (AUG)

15.9%

-

15.0%

23:50

JPY

Capital Spending excl Software (Q2)

-8.2%

0.7%

3.4% (R-)

23:50

JPY

Capital Spending (Q2)

-7.8%

1.0%

3.0% (R-)

Euro Session: What to Expect

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

8:30

GBP

Purchasing Manager Index Construction (AUG)

53.2

53.5

Low

9:00

EUR

Euro Zone Producer Price Index (MoM) (JUL)

0.5%

0.0%

Medium

9:00

EUR

Euro Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) (JUL)

6.1%

5.9%

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.4132

1.4354

GBPUSD

1.6121

1.6250

For real time news and analysis, please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/real_time_news

To receive future articles by email, please contact Ilya at ispivak@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.