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FOREX: US Dollar to Extend Gains on Euro Zone Debt Fears, QE2 Expiry

FOREX: US Dollar to Extend Gains on Euro Zone Debt Fears, QE2 Expiry

2011-05-23 06:47:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Overnight Headlines

  • US Dollar Soars as Euro Zone Debt Fears Stoke Risk Aversion
  • Chinese Manufacturing Growth Slowest in Three Months, says HSBC

Critical Levels

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.3901

1.4259

GBPUSD

1.6148

1.6285

The Euro and the British Pound declined in overnight trade, down as much as 0.7 and 0.4 percent respectively against the US Dollar as the greenback staged a broad-based rally against the majors (see below). We remain long USDJPY and are looking for opportunities to get buy the Dollar against other top currencies.

Asia Session: What Happened

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

2:30

CNY

HSBC Manufacturing PMI (MAY)

51.1

-

51.8

5:00

JPY

Leading Index (MAR F)

100.1

-

99.5

5:00

JPY

Coincident Index (MAR F)

103.5

-

103.6

5:00

JPY

Supermarket Sales (YoY) (APR)

-1.3%

-

0.3%

The US Dollar outperformed in overnight trade, rising as much as 0.5 percent against its major counterparts as stocks fell in across Asian bourses, stoking safe-haven demand for the benchmark currency. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional equity index fell 1.9 percent after Fitch cut Greece’s credit rating while Standard & Poor’s said Italy’s rating was at risk, resurrecting Euro Zone sovereign risk fears.

The Australian Dollar bore the brunt of the selloff, sliding as much as 1.1 percent against its US namesake, seeing added selling pressure from disappointing Chinese economic data. HSBC reported that its Chinese Manufacturing PMI gauge fell to 51.1 in May, showing growth in the sector slowed to the weakest in at least three months. China is Australia’s top trading partner and a slowdown in demand there is seen as a significant headwind for the antipodean country’s economy.

Euro Session: What to Expect

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

7:00

CHF

Money Supply M3 (YoY) (APR)

-

7.1%

Low

7:00

EUR

French PMI Manufacturing (MAY P)

57.0

57.5

Low

7:00

EUR

French PMI Services (MAY P)

62.1

62.9

Low

7:30

EUR

German PMI Manufacturing (MAY A)

61.0

62.0

Medium

7:30

EUR

German PMI Services (MAY A)

57.0

56.8

Medium

8:00

EUR

Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing (MAY A)

57.5

58.0

Medium

8:00

EUR

Euro-Zone PMI Services (MAY A)

56.5

56.7

Medium

8:00

EUR

Euro-Zone PMI Composite (MAY A)

57.3

57.8

Medium

8:00

EUR

Italian Consumer Confidence Index s.a. (MAY)

104

103.7

Low

The stage looks set for the US Dollar to extend its overnight advance into European hours. Stock index futures tracking key European and US equity benchmarks are trading aggressively lower ahead of the opening bell, meaning risk aversion will remain a central theme on Monday.

Greek credit default swap rates are up 50.2 basis points, putting the priced-in chance of a default at the highest in a month and suggesting sovereign risk fears will continue to compound the broadly risk-averse theme ahead of the expiry of QE2established at the beginning of the month.

On the data front, the early set of May’s Euro Zone Purchasing Manager Index figures headline the calendar. The region-wise composite reading is expected to show manufacturing- and service-sector growth slowed to the weakest in four months.

For real time news and analysis, please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/real_time_news

To receive future articles by email, please contact Ilya at ispivak@dailyfx.com

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