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FOREX: Yen Set to Extend Losses, Euro Pressured by Spanish Default Fears

FOREX: Yen Set to Extend Losses, Euro Pressured by Spanish Default Fears

2011-03-30 06:48:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Overnight Headlines

  • Japanese Yen Falls on Waning Safety Demand as Stocks Rise in Asia
  • British Pound Gains as BOE’s Weale Reiterates Call for Rate Hikes
  • Euro Sold as Markets Signal Rising Fear of Spanish Sovereign Default

Critical Levels

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.3993

1.4143

GBPUSD

1.5943

1.6142

The Euro declined in overnight trade, down 0.4 percent against the US Dollar, after Spanish credit-default swap spreads issued the largest daily increase in over five weeks, reflecting rising worries of a debt crisis in the Euro Zone’s fourth-largest economy. The British Pound rose 0.3 percent against the greenback after Bank of England policymakerMartin Weale said the central bank should raise interest rates amid rising risk that inflation will not fall back toward the 2 percent target level over the medium term.

Asia Session: What Happened

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:45

NZD

Building Permits (MoM) (FEB)

-9.7%

-1.0%

9.10%

23:50

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM) (FEB P)

0.4%

-0.1%

1.3%

23:50

JPY

Industrial Production (YoY) (FEB P)

2.8%

4.0%

3.5%

0:00

AUD

DEWR Skilled Vacancies (MoM) (MAR)

0.6%

-

0.0% (R+)

0:30

AUD

Job Vacancies (FEB)

-1.7%

-

6.6%

1:16

CNY

Leading Index (FEB)

101.05

-

101.04

4:00

JPY

Vehicle Production (YoY) (FEB)

-5.5%

-

-6.3%

The Japanese Yen underperformed in overnight trade, slumping as much as 0.7 percent against its major counterparts, as stocks soared across Asian exchanges, sapping demand for the safety-linked currency. Not surprisingly, the risk-on environment proved most supportive for the commodity bloc, with the risk-sensitive Australian, New Zealand and Canadian Dollars scoring outsized gains.

The MSCI Asia Pacific regional stock benchmark index rose 1.3 percent, with optimism centered on expectations that Japanese companies will swiftly bring production back online in the aftermath of the Tohoku earthquake following news that Hitachi will bring its main factory back to full capacity by early April. Nissan – a leading automaker – said it will resume production at full clip by the end of June. The announcements reinforced yesterday’s rosy employment figures and found additional support from a better than expected Industrial Production reading, hinting that the Japanese economic recovery that seemed to be gaining momentum last month has scope to continue.

Euro Session: What to Expect

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

8:00

EUR

Italian Hourly Wages (MoM) (FEB)

-

0.1%

Low

8:00

EUR

Italian Hourly Wages (YoY) (FEB)

-

1.7%

Low

8:30

GBP

Index of Services (3M/3M) (JAN)

-0.9%

-0.7%

Low

8:30

GBP

Index of Services (MoM) (JAN)

-

-1.3%

Low

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Business Climate Indicator (MAR)

1.42

1.45

Medium

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (MAR F)

-10.6

-10.6

Medium

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Economic Confidence (MAR)

107.5

107.8

Low

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Industrial Confidence (MAR)

6.0

6.5

Low

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Services Confidence (MAR)

11.5

11.1

Low

9:30

CHF

KOF Swiss Leading Indicator (MAR)

2.18

2.18

Medium

10:00

GBP

CBI Reported Sales (MAR)

-2

6

Medium

Stock index futures are pointing sharply higher ahead of the opening bell, hinting the “risk-on” mood noted in Asia is set to carry over into European hours. On balance, this appears to point the way lower for the safety-linked US Dollar and Japanese Yen against the spectrum of their major counterparts.

The regional data docket is fairly slim, with the final revision of March Euro Zone Consumer Confidence reading expected to confirm initial estimates while Switzerland’s KOF Leading Indicator – a gauge foreshadowing the economy’s performance over the next six months – remains in the familiar range established since June. A preliminary gauge of US Employment from ADP will come into focus late into the session as traders shape expectations for official figures due on Friday.

For real time news and analysis, please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/real_time_news

To receive future articles by email, please contact Ilya at ispivak@dailyfx.com

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/session_briefing/euro_open/2011/03/29/FOREX_Pound_to_Look_Past_GDP_to_Money_Supply_Data_with_Rates_in_Focus.html

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