We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Mixed
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • The $USD recorded an impressive rally over the last 5 trading days and has pushed the DXY Index to test its downtrend resistance line and 50-day simple moving average. Get your market update from @RichDvorakFX here: https://t.co/gEq29A1M3U https://t.co/6aKk2Nh5BZ
  • But will it make it in time for market close? https://t.co/AVVMxRSELq
  • US Dollar Price Action Setups: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, AUD/USD https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/analyst_picks/todays_picks/james_stanley/2019/11/22/us-dollar-price-action-setups-eur-usd-gbp-usd-usd-cad-aud-usd-js55-usd-price-chart.html
  • Trump says Hong Kong bill announcement coming very soon $DXY $SPX
  • US Treasury Yields Update: 2-Year: 1.632% 3-Year: 1.619% 5-Year: 1.627% 7-Year: 1.710% 10-Year: 1.773% 30-Year: 2.222%
  • Commodities Update: As of 19:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.10% Gold: -0.12% Silver: -0.45% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/1ggdb5G69z
  • Corbyn says he would be neutral in a second Brexit referendum
  • $GBPUSD is down over 150 pips since November 18th highs as $DXY breaks above 98.20 https://t.co/56CCd8GRBF
  • Since the metal’s peak on September 4, the total ETF holdings of #silver have fallen by 19.4 million troy ounces. Get your market update from @PeterHanksFX here:https://t.co/vaNAQE2wTm https://t.co/B9yS07agIh
  • German Bund Yields Update: 2-Year: -0.649% 3-Year: -0.670% 5-Year: -0.587% 7-Year: -0.534% 10-Year: -0.360% 30-Year: 0.150%
FOREX: Pound to Look Past GDP to Money Supply Data with Rates in Focus

FOREX: Pound to Look Past GDP to Money Supply Data with Rates in Focus

2011-03-29 07:31:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
Share:

Overnight Headlines

  • New Zealand Trade Surplus Narrows as Imports Soar
  • Japan’s Jobless Rate Hit 2-Year Low Before Earthquake

Critical Levels

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.4034

1.4203

GBPUSD

1.5947

1.6092

The Euro advanced in overnight trade, erasing losses sustained early in the session to add 0.3 percent against the US Dollar. The British Pound likewise advanced, touching as high as 1.6042 against the greenback, but prices reversed just ahead of the opening bell to erase most of the advance. We are looking to enter short EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD in the days ahead.

Asia Session: What Happened

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:45

NZD

Trade Balance (NZ$) (FEB)

194M

27M

-3M (R-)

21:45

NZD

Trade Balance 12mo YTD (NZ$) (FEB)

758M

815M

892.6M (R+)

21:45

NZD

Exports (NZ$) (FEB)

3.87B

3.5B

3.3B (R+)

21:45

NZD

Imports (NZ$) (FEB)

3.68B

3.3B

3.3B (R+)

23:30

JPY

Job-To-Applicant Ratio (FEB)

0.62

0.62

0.61

23:30

JPY

Household Spending (YoY) (FEB)

-0.2%

0.0%

-1.0%

23:30

JPY

Jobless Rate (FEB)

4.6%

4.9%

4.9%

23:50

JPY

Retail Trade s.a. (MoM) (FEB)

0.8%

0.5%

4.1%

23:50

JPY

Retail Trade (YoY) (FEB)

0.1%

-0.5%

0.1%

23:50

JPY

Large Retailers' Sales (FEB)

0.5%

-0.4%

-0.7%

00:00

AUD

HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (FEB)

0.6%

-

2.5%

1:05

JPY

Small Business Confidence (MAR)

49.5

-

46.6

New Zealand’s Trade Balance surplus shrank for the third month to NZ$758 million in the year through February, the smallest since July of last year, as imports continued to outpace exports. Inbound shipment grew at an annual pace of 22.9 percent, the fastest since September 2008, potentially reflecting the sharp rise of the trade-weighted New Zealand Dollar in the 24 months through December 2010.

Japan’s Jobless Rate fell to 4.6 percent in February, the lowest in two years, while the ratio of available jobs to seeking applicants rose to 0.62. Labor force participation also narrowly increased to 59 percent, suggesting Japan’s labor market was showing genuine signs of improvement before being struck by the Tohoku earthquake. Unfortunately, with the total fallout from the disaster still uncertain, these figures are largely moot until it becomes clear if the momentum they reveal will be carried over into the months ahead.

Euro Session: What to Expect

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

-

EUR

German Consumer Price Index (MoM) (MAR P)

0.4%

0.5%

Medium

-

EUR

German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAR P)

2.2%

2.1%

High

-

EUR

German CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) (MAR P)

0.4%

0.6%

Medium

-

EUR

German CPI – EU Harmonised (YoY) (MAR P)

2.2%

2.2%

High

6:00

EUR

GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (APR)

5.8

6.0

Low

6:00

CHF

UBS Consumption Indicator (FEB)

-

1.676

Low

6:45

EUR

French Consumer Spending (MoM) (FEB)

0.5%

-0.5%

Low

6:45

EUR

French Consumer Spending (YoY) (FEB)

4.8%

2.4%

Low

8:00

EUR

Italian Business Confidence (MAR)

102.6

103

Low

8:30

GBP

Total Business Investment (YoY) (4Q F)

-

10%

Low

8:30

GBP

Total Business Investment (QoQ) (4Q F)

-

-2.5%

Low

8:30

GBP

Current Account (£) (4Q)

-10.4B

-9.6B

Medium

8:30

GBP

Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (4Q F)

-0.6%

-0.6%

High

8:30

GBP

Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (4Q F)

1.5%

1.5%

High

8:30

GBP

M4 Money Supply (MoM) (FEB)

-

0.8%

Low

8:30

GBP

M4 Money Supply (YoY) (FEB)

-

-1.7%

Low

8:30

GBP

M4 Ex OFCs 3M (YoY) (FEB)

-

4.9%

Low

8:30

GBP

Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (FEB)

1.3B

1.8B

Low

8:30

GBP

Mortgage Approvals (FEB)

46.5K

45.7K

Low

8:30

GBP

Net Consumer Credit (FEB)

-0.1B

-0.3B

Low

With rate hike expectations in focus, UK Money Supply figures may overshadow the final revision of fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product figures for the British Pound. Traders will be particularly concerned with the “core” M4 reading excluding OFCs (so-called “other financial corporations”), an indicator closely it is monitored by the Bank of England. The metric put money supply growth at 4.9 percent in January and anything meaningfully above that may help to rebuild monetary tightening bets and help underpin the UK unit over the near term.

Turning to the Continent, the preliminary German Consumer Price Index reading is on tap, with expectations calling for inflation in the Euro Zone’s top economy to accelerate to 2.2 percent in March. The outcome may not prove substantially market-moving considering the likelihood of an April rate hike from the European Central Bank has been thoroughly priced in for some time now (according to a Credit Suisse gauge tracking traders’ outlook as derived from overnight index swaps).

US economic data will come into focus later in the session, Consumer Confidence figures expected to show that sentiment for the first in five months in March. The outcome reinforces the recent cooling in key indicators tracking the health of the world’s top economy, threatening to weigh on risk-sensitive currencies and boost the safety-linked US Dollar.

For real time news and analysis, please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/real_time_news

To receive future articles by email, please contact Ilya at ispivak@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.