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FOREX: Euro Looks to Portugal Debt Sale Ahead of ECB Rate Decision

FOREX: Euro Looks to Portugal Debt Sale Ahead of ECB Rate Decision

2011-02-02 07:12:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Overnight Headlines

Critical Levels

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.3747

1.3907

GBPUSD

1.6073

1.6210

The Euro and the British Pound continued to edge higher against the US Dollar in overnight trade after soaring in New York trade, trading up 0.1 percent apiece. The greenback declined against an average of its top six counterparts – touching the lowest level in 3 months – as Asian shares followed Wall Street higher (see below), sapping demand for the safety-linked currency.

Asia Session: What Happened

CCY

GMT

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

JPY

23:50

Monetary Base (YoY) (JAN)

5.5%

-

7.0%

AUD

0:00

HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (DEC)

-0.6%

-

-0.2%

JPY

1:30

Bank of Japan’s Kamezaki Speaks in Saga City

-

-

-

The Japanese Yen underperformed in Asian trade, slumping as much as 0.3 percent on average against its major counterparts as Asian stocks followed Wall Street higher, with the risk-on mood boosting investors’ interest in carry trades funded cheaply in the perennially low-yielding currency. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark equity index rose 1.2 percent – posting the largest advance in two months – after a supportive set of US economic data underpinned confidence in the global recovery.

Euro Session: What to Expect

CCY

GMT

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

GBP

9:30

Purchasing Manager Index Construction (JAN)

49.5

49.1

Low

EUR

10:00

Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (MoM) (DEC)

0.7%

0.3%

Low

EUR

10:00

Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) (DEC)

5.2%

4.5%

Low

A lull in major economic data will put a debt auction in Portugal in focus, with the debt-laden country widely expected to be the site of the next flare-up in sovereign risk in the Euro Zone set to sell off a tranche of 350- and 190-day bills. Portuguese credit-default swap spreads edged slightly higher ahead of the offering, adding 2.5 basis points.

While the country has had little trouble placing its debt at recent auctions, the spike in region-wide borrowing costs over the past two weeks may translate into higher rates here as well, rekindling doubts about the country’s ability to meet its obligations. The outcome of the sale may take on added considering the proximity of tomorrow’s ECB policy announcement, suggesting the central bank may have room to backtrack on the hawkish shift in its tone over the last several weeks. EONIA and Euribor, the benchmark Euro-area overnight and three-month interest rates respectively, surged to 19-month highs yesterday.

For real time news and analysis, please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/real_time_news

To receive future articles by email, please contact Ilya at ispivak@dailyfx.com

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